Thursday, June 11, 2009

Stuck In the Middle, Not For long




53 comments:

boris said...

Dear Subscribers, Please note that
the Asset Files have been updated.
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Who's gonna buy the 30 year today Dear Boris and will they be arm twisted into selling comodities and equities to raise the cash to fund those purchases?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes, I bought some 30 years. I will be if interest rates go even higher. I am an asset accumulator. So, I do not mind being a bit early on a tiny amount of my money being in a long term bond. I had zero of it until recently.

So, you see, there are buyers(SUCKERS I mean(:- ).

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Very amusing :-) But why not buy non-dollar bonds?

I noticed that all the intraday lows for the euro conflate with other measures today.....

xerxes said...

And Dear Boris...Although you call yourself an 'asset allocator' when I read what you post about your portfolio, you are constantly trading it....Nothing wrong with that, but if you tweek your"long-term" positions every 5 minutes I would refer to it as speculation not allocation :-)
And I would like to be as good an asset allocator as you are one day, including the tweeking part :-)

boris said...

No no,
Dear Xerxes,
There is no way I am constantly trading. That is not the case at all.

All trades ( very few last 3 months) were done in the context of asset allocation.

I may have few short term trades, but not for myself.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

alexnewbee said...

Good afternoon everybody

I absolutely agree with Dear Boris, I am a buyer of 30-years, today could be one more spike (yields), but they are a buy at this level. for the same reason gold is a sell.

Good trading everybody.

boris said...

Dear Alex,
For somebody who called the MEGA Bear Call in Bonds to be purchasing bonds is pretty rediculous(:-, but as I said this is first step , in what maybe a multiyear process of purchasing BONDS ( at one percent a year it will take me 100 years to have all in bonds(:- ).

In reality though I see a strong resistance at 4% fir 10 year and at 4.67 for 30 Year bonds. So, the thinking goes if turn happens, I will make some money and get out of the bonds if not I will keep buying for next 100 years(:-

GOod Trading Dear Alex

alexnewbee said...

Dear Boris

thanks, I wish you patience in your 100-year's saga of bond purchase...

Ivan said...

Hi All,
Boris, could you explain me in short the story about bonds. As a beginner, I don't understand why you are going to buy 30-years bonds if we expact some period of high inflation rates in USA. What will be with bonds in that period? Thanks

xerxes said...

Dear Ivan...All you need to know about bonds is that since Dear Boris is buying them, so should you :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...30 year is at 4.77% now...It appears to have sliced through the 4.67% resistance level you mentioned...

Ivan said...

Dear xerxes, probably you are right :-)

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

The action in the 30 year auction must be, as they say, Dear Boris, a "bit sloppy" as yields seem to be risingeuro, gold wtic sinking, with the buck, of course, getting some traction...To like bonds suggests that you lovvvve the buckerooo :-)

xerxes said...

They must be selling the relic hand over fist to pick up those bonds...Go Bonds Go :-)

alexnewbee said...

but now I would wait another hour and 15 min. before doing anything - rememberning wise words of Dear Boris.

xerxes said...

Retail sales, Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET Dear Alex....It's difficult to trade news

alexnewbee said...

if I were one of boyz (prime dealers), in order to sell bonds I would spike crude (remember friends arabs?) and afterwards let be sold. Also spike in equity futures and selling after market opens could help drive cash to bonds. means we could see great "news" at 14.30 to realize above scenario. also relic coult spike shortly on above.
just MHO, but of course I could be wrong.

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Good Morning My Very Dear Friend.

Good Trading

boris said...

Dear Ivan,
I already indicated that I think Bonds are entering the Bear market.
I also indicate that I bought a tiny share as an asset allocation step( I had zeor position before).

Now, as a quantum physicist, I make deterministic forecasts only because most of people do not ( want to) understand the probabilistic language.

So, what I think is that at least in a short term we may have a retracement in interest rates, then I will use it as a chance to make small amount of money and get out. If not I do not care, because I am lookig forward to be buying US treasuries at 5-6-7-8-9-10 % in the future.

I have not other way to explain what I just said. Except..

1) If I am wrong I get better deals on 99% of money later years.
2) If I am right I would make a little money and treat the entire episode as a short term trade.

Probabilities are that both of these will turn out to be right at some poinst. If not I do not care

Over time I will do better in any case.

Good Trading Dear Ivan

Ivan said...

Thanks Boris, it's clear now. Very reasonable approach..

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...My Dear Dad passed away many years ago (G-d bless his soul) but before he left he gave me some sage advice. He said "Son, don't be an asshole and lose money in the markets or I'll descend from the heavens and whip your ass..." So when I read your trading rules on antisopitalist.com: (1) Don't ever lose money (2) Never forget rule #1, I realized that their was a confluence of great minds (You and my Dad who BTW, spoke Russian fluently) :-) So Dear Boris, I'll buy bonds, strategically, when nobody wants them anymore :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Please let me know when that happens.

Please(:-

GOod Trading

xerxes said...

I will Dear Boris, I will :-)

xerxes said...

Dear Boris...Yields are surging, equities in the toilet...

valry777 said...

hi BORIS,
can you update list of stocks,what we need/possible to buy in case if market will deep 10%+++.like dividend stock and maybe different.
if it's possible you can do this by email or in weekend on the antisopitalist.net
thanks,
valry

boris said...

Dear Valery,
While I think this is only possible in detail at a time it acrtually happens, nevertheless the original list is still pretty representative.

For a more detail , as mentioned we can only do it when it happens. because it would matter how we got there, SECTOR WISE, I mean.
It is hard for me , now to anticipate that well.
Good Trading

boris said...

Actually,
I appreciate the question Dear Valery, because, finally many are catching the truth of what I was saying when I preached the DIVIDEND issue.

Now that market is playing HIDE and SEEK with the investment public the only people laughing are the ones which sit with that nice YIELD and principle gains on the stocks I had SHOULTED over the top of my voice TO BUY.

Example FAX, 5+ in July 2008, was possible to buy at 3.3 , 3.5 3.7 or any level between there and 5.7 we are at now and there was an 8%+ dividend with a 50% appreciation on average.

GIM, BTE,ERF, CAn I go on and on.
KMP, TDY , SNH etc...

Can I Do More No need, I hope

Good Trading Dear Valery

EVEN DVY, which we stopped advising after Oct 2008 came back to 42 area, which meant no/low capital loss and 6% without benefits of accumulation. ( much more with it)

xerxes said...

Gold soaring Dear Boris

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
GOld, Is higher, but are not you exegerating , SOARING.

it is higher not even higher than yesterday!

When if it is then I will agree and that may also change ther trend up

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

John said...

Boris,

USO is very close to

old john

xerxes said...

Well dear Boris, I missed out on a real nice sucker's rally, again :-)

boris said...

Dear John,
Yes,

FXI, jumped over.
TRAN, INDU are under and very close
Good Trading Dear john

boris said...

In what Dear Xerxes
You mean in GOLD?

Good Trading

John said...

Boris,

Would seem like a confluence with the date if things continue.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
I would not mind that at all.
It would only reinforce, what we think is likely to happen

Good Trading Dear John

xerxes said...

Yes, Dear Boris...Gold...
No new emini chart today?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
If you think you can catch every 5 dollar rally , decline in gold. Then expectations seem wrong.

In any case, there is nothing really new in the markets. Right now it is all dead.

If you need to act, we have given some levels in INDU/TRAN/USO etc. to key off

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Move was 15 bucks in gold Dear Boris...Not too shabby for 4 hours work...2% a day keeps the doctor away :-)

What's all this indu trans uso level talk? I didn't see anything?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
You must keep emails and data
IT is hard for me to go beyond what I do.

If Dear John, Knew, so should have you that USO AP was at xxx and Last highs in Tran and INDU were ther resistence to watch.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Well,
By now it is up 14.
When I refered to it gold was up only 10 dollars or so and it was higher only by 5 dollars from CLOSE OF YESTERDAY.

In any case, if you wanted to catch it, who was standing your ways.

I have explained hundred times that UNTIL turn date (XX) Dollar will be challenged!

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

boris said...

We know that what we are in is doing well today.

UNG up 6.5 %
TLT up 1.1%

Good Trading

Mike Truong said...

Boris,

How is it that equities and bonds go up together? Unconventional no? Or just more game playing...hmmm?

Good trading dear friend,

Michael

boris said...

Dear Michael,
This should be happening when?

Close to market turn times!

Good Trading

You get the idea , given the turn date right?

Good Trading Deaer Michael

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

even though you ignored(deleted ;-)) my last massage i wanted to thank you for the call on 10yr today!

tnx man !

A-B

boris said...

Dear A-B,
I do not want that kind of message on the board,
Ok, no problem,
Thanks and
Good Trading

Aboot-Bull said...

Dear Boris,

I'm not sure i know what you mean or what was wrong with it but since i share a great deal of respect to you,
ill apologize for what ever i wrote there.
hope no harm done.

A-B

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris...

So, the dollar thumping theme continues...So what else is new? :-)

boris said...

Change is coming Dear Xerxes
Just like day changes night the Dollar rally is coming.

The trick is knowing when

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Boris....When it comes to the fortunes of EURUSD, it seems like Texas Tea cals the shots, rules the roost....West Texas seems pretty toppy here...I don't know how you get call after call correct :-)

xerxes said...

There is a G20 meet this weekend I think....That is unlikely to be a dollar supporting event Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

According to what we know is coming you maybe right Dear Xerxes.

Good Trading Dear Friend.
I am out couple hours.
Will post when I come back

Good Trading all