Sunday, November 22, 2009

neither bear nor bull be


Here is my comment on GOld on September 17. Subscribers can see it on the http://www.antisopitalist.net/
"And we said a while now, the time for GOld to take Antidollar leadership is coming. That time is just about this month and I could not stand , any more, lethargic gold. It just had to do something. Either go down in preparation to go up or just go up, beacuse there is no time left to play around anymore"
Golden Words Indeed. I know, that this was one of my most incredible timing calls this year, right after 666 bottom call in the stocks market. In fact We told the world that gold was going up and here is the picture published on this blog (Sept 13). ClickHereToSeeIt-> Did You See Gold Rally Coming . Rest, as they say, is History! This picture constitutes, one of the most brilliant examples of using the Asset oscillators. Please learn from it.

Now Today's markets
Yes, how can you be either bear or bull, when anybody who did not belive in transition got buned by markets that did not go anywhere, but churn around to lose you money if you are not carefully trading or staying out. (Old) J.P. Morgan was correct when he said that the markets will
FLUCTUATE!
Of course, we do not believe that the market has too much upside, but it is hard to believe that market has too much downside ptoential either at for a short time. So, Collect The Dividends if you are in such position already, play very short term games ( not swing trades) and or stay out. Intermediate term swing trading is hard(er) at this time

131 comments:

John said...

Boris,

When in doubt - stay out


old john


There will be another bus

boris said...

Dear John,
EXACTLY,

GOod Morning to you Dear John,
Sorry I was out today.

GOod Trading to you My Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Dear Boris ... The Nikky dropped over 9% since a 10362 top on October 26th and some 12% if you count from the late August high ...
USDJPY peaked on October 26th as well at 92.30 .... The monthly Nikky shows a nice H&S in the process of completing its right shoulder ... Will 2010 be sionara time in the land of the setting sun?

xerxes said...

BTW Dear Boris, the SPX peaked this past Monday...There was a new moon that day ... Meet me in London at the Werewolf Cafe Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Updates
On Market Report
and
Assset Oscillators
Areas
GOod Trading

boris said...

Good Observations
Dear Xerxes
And
Good Invitation
I am just waiating for my own private Jet to make trip to London and Buy Som GOld At Herrods.
So stay tuned for my notice about meeting at Werewolf Cafe

GOod Tradng Dear Xerxes

John said...

xerxes

look at moon phases for the last few months- plot new moon , full moon against spy


old john

xerxes said...

Dear John ... You must have done that task already so clue me in please :-)

John said...

Xerxes-Came from someone else but I always watch the date of full moon- new moon. Many times people change during this time frame- ask any emergency room doctor or nurse. I am sure they will relate stories

xerxes said...

With stars, dojis and high waves on the various wtic timeframes, it is clear that the VLCC's off the coast of Malta are empty Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Apparently, Dear Boris, the Japanese Government runs some kind of employment subsidy program which, if dismantled would jack the rate up from 5,4 to 12.2%, according to Nomura .... Here's the link:

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/what-is-the-real-level-of-unemployment-in-germany-and-japan/

You gotta like the name of the website: "Fistfulofeuros.net"
You remember Clint's spaghetti western called "fist full of dollars" ... So from now on its Gimme 'a fist full' of euros :-)

xerxes said...

Economist Gary Shilling has calculated that 58 percent of the population is dependent on the government for "major parts of their income," including teachers, soldiers, bureaucrats, and other government employees; welfare and Social Security recipients; government pensioners; public housing beneficiaries; and people who work for government contractors.

Who won the cold war dear boris ...

Klaatu said...

Dear Boris,
There's a new ETF launched a couple of weeks ago: Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (Symbol
GDXJ). It's focused on "juniors"- small to mid cap mining companies. Run by the Van Eck group.62% is invested in Canadian mining companies and 21% in U.S. It is designed to replicate the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index
(MVGDXJ)
Good trading,
Klaatu

Klaatu said...

James Chanos says the "cracking of state and local municipalities is coming." The poor economy "is masking real problems in municipal cost structures." The big problem he says is "the platinum-plated health care and retirement benefits" given to state and local workers. "It's all coming home to roost" as the boomers start to retire. He figures the feds will have to bail California out and if they do the state's bonds will lose their federal tax exemption.
Chanos says "munis are a bad bet."
Since the Civil War there have been only very isolated defaults. Chanos' reply: "Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't."

Klaatu said...

Dear Boris,
Thanks for the file.
Have a great week and enjoy your walks.
Klaatu

boris said...

Dear Xerxes
Excellent question.
"Who won the cold war"
Bing born on the other side of the curtain, I am wondering who didi it, now that I am USA citizen.

Do USA people understnad that, now, USA is more CONNUMIST( sorry sopitalist) than USSR ever was!
And I know what the hell I talking about.

Minus Gulag, of course. But that depends on how you define Gulag(:-

I feel so sorry, for sorry state of our country. And that is why Americans are complaicent. They all depend on the government that is disfunctioning

Good Tradiang Dear Xerxes

boris said...

Dear Klaatu,
Thank you so much for the note on the Junior Gold stocks.

On the next correction , we will have to take a good look at that one.
GDXJ

It is.

Gold has run away, but hit the level we recently suggested, perhaps it is coming to a resting point, for now, though.

Every subscriber, was warned that Gold was the best thing since bible and that was said in September. So, I will rest my case on this one, but certainly cannot advice going out and loading on it now. We need the let the gold retrace some before we act again.

Good Tradng Dear Klaatu

boris said...

Here is my comment on GOld on September 17. Subscribers can see it on the www.antisopitalist.net

"And we said a while now, the time for GOld to take Antidollar leadership is coming. That time is just about this month and I could not stand , any more, lethargic gold. It just had to to something. Either go down in preparation to go up or just go up, beacuse there is no time left to play around anymore"

I know that this was one of my most incredible timing calls this year, right after 666 bottom call in the stocks market

xerxes said...

For the last couple months Dear Boris, they open Monday's session by selling the buck, a trend you can take to the bank, holding a fist full of euros :-)

xerxes said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
xerxes said...

Nik lost 1/2% today Dear Boris soon to be a 4 digit index once again ...

xerxes said...

Bloomberg says Russia is a criminal state Dear Boris

xerxes said...

Some Russian mogul said if you don't have a billion dollars, Dear Boris, you're a loser, per Bloomberg ... It wasn't too long ago that one who had 2 million was tight; a few helicopter drops and wa la, you need a billion :-)

boris said...

Going For a long walk
See you soon
GOod Trading

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

Some fed dude said they're gonna print till the cows come home Dear Boris, according to Bloomberg ... Now Bloomberg is saying that even if the fed raises in 2010 it won't help the USD ... Sara Reisen says that 1.58xx is coming to a fx screen near you very soon Dear Boris .... Bloomberg says Gold needs to hit 2400 to match the 1980 high Dear Boris so the buck has got to sink to make that happen ... And you can get it all with a fist full of euros :-)

boris said...

Dear Bert,
Very GOod Monring
and Good Trading to you
Very Dear Friend

boris said...

Emini209
On DotNet

xerxes said...

ECB's Trichet: When Appropriate Time Comes, There Should Be No Concern About ECB's Determination And Ability To Exit ....

Fed Official .... We'll be printin' till kingdom comes and interest rates? Can you spell ZZZEERo?

What would you rather own

xerxes said...

IMF says USD is overvalued ... Who am I to disagree?

xerxes said...

4th IHAP for SPX hit Dear Boris ...

xerxes said...

Gold doesn't quit Dear Boris ... Print Ben Print !!!

xerxes said...

Closing in on 1120 Dear Boris ... Bloomberg says its a critical level to breach ...

xerxes said...

Fischer jacked 'em up again Dear Boris ... Economy is smokin' he says ...

xerxes said...

John Lipsky says the buck is not weak .... Still overvalued ...

Fed will continue to 'flood' market with dollars ...

How low can she go? It will stay weak all 2010 and drop at least 7% or so against the single currency, Sara Eisen says Dear Boris

boris said...

UPdate on DotNet

xerxes said...

IMF warns second bailout would 'threaten democracy' ...

Democracy? What democracy Dear Boris ...

boris said...

Dear Xerxes
You have all the right questions today.

Yes, indeed

WHAT DEMOCRACY?

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

What is your basic investment strategy?

Buy low and sell high.

Jimmy Rogers ....

Thanks Jimmy baby for such profoundness ....

Mike Truong said...

I think many people mistake the relative strength of the EURO is due to proper management of the Euro by Tricky. Instead I think the Euro strength comes from Germany and to a lesser extent France. Germany is due to her high quality manufacturing which is desired no matter the price. France originate much of the luxury goods the world coveted. In this sense, the newly minted rich of India and China will seek out Germany and France for their respected goods which show up in their export strength. My thoughts are for how much longer will Germany and France continue to shoulder the economic growth for the Euroland before both countries decide that going back to their previous currencies was better for their countries? Xerxes do you have any thoughts on this?

xerxes said...

German Private Consumption and GDP YoY crushed Dear Boris ... Buck caught a bid despite Lipsky's comments ...

xerxes said...

Dear Mike ... Some of that thinking was always the basis for why some thought the single currency project was doomed from the outset ... At this point there aren't any serious voices suggesting that the project is in trouble, at least that I'm aware of ....

boris said...

Ok Dear Xerxes
Have you read Lipsky's Lips correctly(:-

Than you would have noticed that he was politely nudging China to revaluate RENMINBY rather than making a statment about Dollar being overvalued ,
IN GENERAL

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

I didn't see him speak Dear Boris, I only 'heard' what Bloomberg said ... I guess I should restudy the text of political discourse :-) Or watch the speeches :-)

xerxes said...

John McFall says QE saved the UK from depression Dear Boris

xerxes said...

IFO to be released soon Dear Boris

xerxes said...

Strauss Kahn says confidence in the USD will not disappear 'soon' ... What about 'later' dear Boris ...

xerxes said...

Tricky said that a strong USD is good for the world economy Dear Boris ...

Wanderer said...

Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Thanks and good trading.

Bert

xerxes said...

World stock markets fell Tuesday following big gains on Monday, with China's main index posting its biggest drop in three months after the country's central bank warned commercial banks to control their lending.

xerxes said...

The law firm handling the Madoff liquidation has submitted a 22 million USD bill, a million a week, for their services ... They offered a 10% discount on their usual and customary fees Dear Boris ... Not bad work if you can get it :-)

xerxes said...

PIMCO backed up the truck for UST's in October Dear Boris, according to Bloomberg

xerxes said...

US GDP annualized, at 1:30 London time Dear Boris ... 2.9% expected

boris said...

Sorry , I had to step out
Dear Bert,
Good Morning and Good Trading to you Dear Friend

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
Thanks for providing entertainment,
Sorry I meant Infotainment(:-

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

John said...

xerxes

Lawyers are worse than sopitalists. They have nothing to do with right or wrong.

All show for the dough

old john

xerxes said...

Just trying to have some light fun Dear Boris .... waiting for emini ...

Dear John, a million a week is 25 grand per hour ... I'm sure Madoff's victims were well served :-)

boris said...

emini210 on DotNet

boris said...

Very Sorry,
For such Delay,
Dear John,
Such hectic at that time when the market was actually shaking my computer from the gyrations of the prices on the screen(:-
5 Minute Date

On DotNet Though

Sorry Again Dear John,

boris said...

apparently miracles do happen.
We said low/likly today 1094

Ok, what was the low 1094!(:-
Good Trading All

xerxes said...

Sharks off the British coast: Oil tankers refuse to unload until prices rise... keeping YOUR fuel costs soaring

By Ray Massey
Last updated at 12:09 PM on 19th November 2009

These tankers have been parked off our shores for months, refusing to unload their oil until prices have risen even higher. The delay makes millions for speculators... and keeps your petrol costs soaring.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1229070/Sharks-British-coast-Oil-tankers-refuse-unload-prices-rise--keeping-fuel-costs-soaring.html

xerxes said...

Seems like there are VLCC's everywhere Dear Boris .... Holy toledo Dear Boris, there's even one in my pool !!!!!!! :-)

boris said...

Something tells me Dear Xerxes
That...

THose VLCCs will be there

LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

Time(:-

And YOu know what I mean

xerxes said...

Nightmare on Commodity Street
Monday Mining Minutes
23 November 2009

Thousands of very smart speculators have accumulated the biggest ever
speculative physical raw material positions ever witnessed in the belief that
either the dollar will collapse or an ongoing global ‘Supercycle’ will shake off
the effects of the credit crunch and resume business as usual. They are
funded in this venture by some of the lowest interest rates on record. What are
the threats to their thesis?. They are as follows :
1. Governments, having pumped huge amounts of money into the global
system, find they are running our of fire-power even while economies are
still at the incubation-stage of recovery (i.e. the kind of stage we saw
displayed last week in the poor USA housing starts data). Some
governments find that suddenly their bonds are considered to be ‘toxic’
and a far higher interest rate is demanded for ongoing participation.
2. The global economy not only experiences a slower upturn than the
consensus view, but after the recent inventory-restocking phase is over, it
relapses into a W-shaped recession. More jobs are lost and people who
have been unemployed but still able to keep up their mortgage payments
(because of near-zero interest rates) are suddenly defaulting. Banks finally
have to write down the value of these assets and housing markets around
the world are flooded with new inventory. New-build is out of the question.
Orders for new fridges, washing machines, stoves, taps and other items
that metals so depend on for demand, simply freeze.
3. The global commercial property market finally grinds to a halt. High-rise
buildings that began to be built 18 months ago, before the credit crisis, are
finally completed. Their last copper wiring and plumbing has been
installed (always the last phase), their aluminium windows all in place. Few
new high-rise buildings are started, awaiting the glut of space to be used
up
4. China. A real conundrum. This is either a really vibrant economy that will
keep going from strength to strength or it is an economy in which over investment
was constantly rewarded because underlying demand was
always growing at a pace that subsequently justified that investment. There
has been substantial over-investment in recent times and the question now
is whether domestic demand and export demand will step up to the plate
to belatedly justify that over-investment. Demand has done this with
monotonous regularity in the past 10 years. The question is whether the
global credit crisis has changed that demand profile forever such that
over-investment results in ongoing medium-term overcapacity and sends a
shock wave that freezes new investment. We will have to wait patiently to
see if this threat comes to the fore.

xerxes said...

I think those tankers are EMPTY Dear Boris ... I say, "Show me the Oil" !!!!!

boris said...

Update On DotNet

xerxes said...

From zerohedge ...

In the ongoing US bizarro economy, up is down, and economic weakness represents itself by an increase in the stock market, due to expectations of future liquidity injections and fiscal stimuli, further weakening the dollar. Yet as sovereign CDS has recently taken on more relevance once again, we present the relationship between U.S. 5 year CDS and the DXY index, which over the past 18 months have correlated surprisingly close. Observing the recent action in US CDS implies that it may be about time for the downward dollar trajectory to invert. However the question remains whether US CDS is more a reflection of the level of underlying US distress, or is indicative of the euro-denomination of US CDS. With investors seemingly willing to blast Central Bank policies on a daily basis via the gold market, which in turn drives the currency market, the chicken or the egg circularity of whether fundamentals or correlations drive corresponding risk metrics once again rears its ugly head.

In either case, a simple observation of US risk indicates that the dollar may be due for a pullback. Whether this occurs, will likely be confirmed by the lack of any new dollar-crushing statements out of the Fed.

So you see Dear Boris, any fed clown can derail the buck so just get me that fist full of euros :-)

BTW, the chart mentioned shows the 2 assets fitting like a glove

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
We do not say IF FED says this then the other thing os going to happen.

With all due respect, I would leave those kind of statments to others(:-

We have no IFs And Buts.

We follow our outlines and could not care less what anybody says.

By the time someboey says something things are already in motion, believe me.

In any case, we could not live with waiting for words from people. We only listen to markets themselves.

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

John said...

systemic risk= very rich losing money

boris said...

Dear John
Right On,
Long thoughts are best exprssed in short, said Shota Rustavely, great Gergian Poet and Phylospher and that is exactly where the above statment fits.

This is the same Shota Rustavely whose mote we adopted.

You Find what you give, all else is lost

Good Trading Dear Friend John

xerxes said...

Pips away from new EURUSD high ... Parity on USDCHF today? Bloomberg earlier mentioned AUDUSD parity ... Gold to hit a dozen or maybe a baker's dozen

xerxes said...

22 pips till parity ...

xerxes said...

It has been done ... amen

xerxes said...

Bloomberg says traders are piling into the euro here Dear Boris ... seems more prudent to sell here but I'm not Bloomberg :-)

boris said...

Next Targets updated for EURO currencies and Metals
ON
DOtNet

John said...

Boris

good morning

full moon monday


old john

xerxes said...

A slew of data in 20 minutes Dear Boris ... Fed said that USD decline is nice and orderly so lets give them some more orderly Dear Boris :-)

xerxes said...

Dear John .... Full moon are lows so maybe that will be the last chance to catch the euro under 2.00xx :-))

John said...

xerxes,
full moon were lows-- this one?:)

old john

boris said...

The AHAP list being updated all the time
Look into the
DotNet

xerxes said...

PCE release ... sell USD
Initial claims ... sell USD
Durable goods ... sell the USD
Confidence ... sell USD
New Home Sales ... sell USD
Crude/Distillates ... sell USD

I think I got the game plan correct now Dear Boris .... Have I missed anything :-) Geithner and Bernanke gave me their blessings after our conference call :-)

boris said...

Thanks Deare John
And Good Trading TO you.

My Very Dear Friend

xerxes said...

Jobless Claims 466K 500K 501K
Durable Goods -0.6% 0.5% 2.0%
Mortgage Apps -4.5% 0.3%
Personal Income 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Personal Spend 0.7% 0.5% -0.6%

boris said...

Update on timing
On
DotNet

boris said...

emini211
on
DotNet

Klaatu said...

Dear Boris,
One of my indicators flashed a buy
on Natural Gas last Friday. When it snows outside my window I buy within 3 days.

Great info this a.m. Boris.Many thanks.Have done well with your call on the yen.
Good trading
Klaatu

boris said...

Five Minute
APs
On
DotNet

boris said...

Dear Klaatu,
Thanks

Rememnber, last time Natgas was here, we said that we had what?

YES,
We had the ALAP and buy and then there was a 30% rally.
THe only problem is UNG is not repsonding as well as the actual FUTURES which is still up almost owver 50% while UNG is , well!

I advised to lighten up on that one above 12.50.

THere is something really wrong the way these guys manage UNG.

I do not like it as an instrment and therefore I am having problem RErecomending it.

So there. If you can buy futures
QG then by all means.

UNG , should rally too and I still have small postion, taken up couple days ago( again) but very small to just have interest to watch it.

I lost confidence in this instrument.

Not in NATGAS though

Thanks Dear Klaatu

GOod Trading My Very very Dear Friend

Klaatu said...

Dear Boris,
My sentiments exactly. I didn't like the UNG but liked the futures.
Thanks.
Klaatu

John said...

Boris

look at gaz

old john

boris said...

Please Dear Subscriber, see update on the GAS and possible cleaner play.

On DotNet

Dear John, Thanks Dearest Friend

boris said...

One more update and/or twist on the subject
At
DotNet

boris said...

Supposedly, the good news on OIL inventories front, we do not see really bullish response from OIL!
At least not yet.
GOod Trading

xerxes said...

I thought the report was bad news for oil Dear Boris ...

Bloomberg pusing shorts of USDMXN Dear Boris ... How come you never discuss this :-)

xerxes said...

First sell USD's for pesos then sell USD's for Arctic Shillings ...
Go Bloomberg :-)

boris said...

Dear Xerxes
I have hard time with what I am doing(:-,

If there is an interest though, seriously, we can track that mexican currency as well.

No problem(:-

Good Trading Dear Friend Xerxes

xerxes said...

Dear Boris ... I was just kidding around with the peso talk :-) I view recommendations to get involved with marginal assets as a warning sign :-)

----------

Copper stockpiles held in duty-free warehouses in China, the top user, may be re-exported after surging to as much as 350,000 tons from almost none at the start of the year, according to Xi’an Maike Metal International Group. “We can hardly find buyers for refined copper,” said Luo Shengzhang, general manager of the copper department at Xi’an Maike. The company ranks among the country’s three biggest importers, according to the executive. “China’s got to export some copper from now and next year,” Luo said in an interview.

boris said...

Interesting
Dear Xerxes,
This , by the way, will not the first time, Chine caused the huge runup in SOME commodity( Cooper in this case) and then RESOLD at the market at higher prices than it payed. And remember, CHINA had a ball when OIL( and other commodities) went down to 30, that is much better than to pay 147 for a country that drinks OIL, like it was a HealhDrink(:- ( country growing that is).

GOod Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

So the Chinese are the smartest speculators in the room ... Laughing all the way to the bank Dear Boris :-)

boris said...

Dear subscrier
Alert, in 5 minutes on
DotNet
Good Trading

xerxes said...

Seems like the SPX was the sucker bet today Dear Boris ...

xerxes said...

Thanksgiving Special at the local diner today Dear Boris is Smoked buck with Swiss truffle and Golden Gravy which you can wash down with Silver Tequila and served by a gorgeous Euro babe ... Sayonara for now :-)

boris said...

EURO hits the 4th today.
Rare event, which often happens, Near the TOPS!

Good Trading

boris said...

Please see the euro graph
on
Dot Net

Good Trading

xerxes said...

What do all the different colored dots represent Dear Boris

boris said...

purple 2nd
blue 3rd
green 4th
pink 5th
Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20091104.pdf

Participants noted that the
recent fall in the foreign exchange value of the dollar
had been orderly and appeared to reflect an unwinding
of safe-haven demand in light of the recovery in financial
market conditions this year, but that any tendency
for dollar depreciation to intensify or to put significant
upward pressure on inflation would bear close watching.

So Dear Boris, it has been orderly so it's no biggie ... Just a reversal of the safehaven flows from 2008 ... Crude is 1/2 what it was so no intensifying inflation so nothing to watch here... let's move on :-)

xerxes said...

The U.S. Mint said on Wednesday it will suspend sales of the popular American Eagle 1-ounce bullion coins as rising demand depleted its inventory. "The United States Mint has depleted its current inventory of 2009 American Eagle 1-ounce gold bullion coins due to the continued strong demand for this product,"

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=93608&sn=Detail

Come on Dear John, lighten up a bit :-)

xerxes said...

thank you dear boris ....

John said...

xerxes

Have some physical gold from 230 to 250 oz in the safety deposit box. Bought years ago just in case. Everyone should own gold and have a gun.

old john

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

At your leisure, could you explained a bit of a paradox for me? I know that interest rate determine the market sentiment toward the viability of a borrower to pay back the loan. In this sense I can understand the low rates that most G* government enjoyed because of the inherent "riskless" nature of these government. However, if a currency such as the USD continues to lose its purchasing power for anyone holding the actual dollar, why investors are still willing to bid on US debts to such low rates is a mystery to me? Wouldn't the debt buyers demand a higher interest to compensate for the long period of holding US debts? I know that the FED has been buying a lot of these debts so as to keep a lid on rates, my question is why has no one continue to sell to the FED and pocket the extra bps. Thanks dear Boris,

Michael

xerxes said...

Brian Milner and Tavia Grant

Globe and Mail Update

The rebellion against the U.S. dollar is gathering force, catching Canada up in a slow but steady march across the globe.

In the latest blow to the greenback, Russia's central bank has signalled its intention to add the Canadian dollar, and possibly one or two other currencies, to its foreign exchange reserves – the third-largest in the world – as it seeks to cut its huge exposure to the fading U.S. currency. That revelation by a senior Bank Rossii official in Moscow triggered a sharp gain for the loonie Wednesday and contributed to the U.S. dollar's slide to a 15-month low.

The loonie ended the trading day at 95.65 cents (U.S.).

The Canadian dollar is in the sights of foreign central bankers, partly because of Canada's relatively sound fiscal position and the perception it is a commodity-based currency, analysts say. And there are not many other options once a central bank decides it is holding more than enough U.S. dollars and euros. Such a shift brings Russia into line with the currency diversification strategies being weighed or launched by China, Indonesia and a handful of other major central banks holding vast amounts of U.S. Treasuries.

xerxes said...

The dollar has tumbled to 14-year low against the Japanese yen after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated it wasn't overly concerned about the dollar's recent decline versus major currencies. The dollar sank as low as 86.51 yen in Tokyo trading Thursday, the lowest since July 1995.

boris said...

Dear Michael,
I have one/ouple words regarding your question. But main word is...

JAPAN.

Ok, what about japan?
1) Institutions, not foreign, by the way, buy the Bonds. Cause they have the spread ( deposits versus, loans to customers) and that is cheap , riskless profits. It is penny at a time perhaps , but Japan is feeding its banks this way fro 20 years now!
2) People, cannot find any alternatives, except buying the Australian Dollars, but often they get burned when AUDJPY explodes( 2008 anyone) and I predict here that we are getting back to AUDJPY Underperforming. Nobod please rush out and sell this, but over time that is my prediction. So, Mrs. Vatanabe does not to become Kamicaze and risk life savings in these kind of carry-trade again?( at least some of those Mrs(:- )
3) Besides banks, the other institutions, mainly Insurance have long term obligations they must meet without much risk( if ,when, possible) so they buy the JGB's Japanes Gov Bonds.

So, in any case, here your reasons why/who must buy the bonds.

IN USA case there is even more powerful constituent, all countries who

1)who do not want to see their currency apprecaite against Dollar as this kills their economy( Japan Corea and biggest CHINA), so they buy Bonds/Dollar to protect still the largest export market to USA
2)Countries who see th Dollar as safehaven as the USA is the biggest military power in the world and imforcer.

Now, I can tell , that for the long run, best thing that can happen to Dollar is that Dollar loses its reserve power and USA gets cut down to its REAL size( without Financial fluff), so that TOO BIG no more gets through the head of our politicians. Then the Dollar will not primary way to Greece the wheels of the world and other people will be debasing their currency to keep the world afloat in FIAT currency.

Or alternatively, by then, without USA no more able to finance the world policeman role, will let things happen and world will kill each other , running back to US(A) crying, please intervene and stop the bloodsched, cause this is what I see in the by/multiploar world that will emerge.

In any case, I hope I have answered some of your most basic desires to understand the phenomenon of Dollars Slow/No Death

Good Trading Dear Michael

Mike Truong said...

Dear Boris,

So in a sense, the ROW is locked into a perpetual dance with the USA in which the US extracts a tribute from ROWs via devaluation of the dollar thus making the repayment of US debts cheaper with the devalued dollars? So at what point will the people from the ROW rise up to challenge their governments for continuing to pay the tributes to the USA while the people starve? If we use N Korea as an example, I supposed it could go on for much longer than most of us expect.

Thanks dear Boris,

Michael

Mike Truong said...

Hi Boris,

Is GS luring the last of the suckers or giving everyone a chance to share in the Christmas feast...?

http://pragcap.com/goldman-sachs-how-to-trade-the-end-of-the-year

Goldman is increasingly confident in the end of year rally. In fact, a recent piece of research says December could be one of the strongest months of 2009 (not an easy feat considering the year we’ve had). Like other bullish investors, they believe seasonality will be an important influence on year-end action:

As we move into the year end, we take a look at the seasonality effect in equity markets. December stands out as one of the best months for equities, using both long- and short-term data; we think this year will be similar. In years when the first 11 months have yielded good returns, December has tended to be particularly strong.

December yields good returns on average
Based on monthly data going back to 1974, December has on average returned twice as much as the monthly average (1.7% vs. 0.8%). It is the third best month based on average data and the second best one using median data. It is interesting to note that January is also a good month for equities based on long-term data. December and January both yielded a positive return in more than 70% of the cases.

Goldman goes on to note that December is particularly strong when the current year has been strong:

The better the year, the better the December
There have been worries among market participants that the year end could see weakness in equities, following the strong year-to-date performance. However, historical data tell the opposite. In years when the return from January to November has been strong, December has tended to be very strong as well.

How to play it? Don’t rely on commodities to continue their inverse dollar surge. In fact, the best performing assets in big years have been financials cyclicals:

Oil & Gas has underperformed historically in December
Commodity related sectors exhibit the lowest relative returns among all sectors in December. This holds even when restricting the sample to years when the market went up by more than 20% in the run-up to December. Conversely, Financials and selected Cyclicals have been the best performing sectors in December when the market has risen by more than 20% in the first 11 months. Looking at countries, the results are less interesting as the differentiation is less marked than between sectors. Germany stands out as the best performing country on average in
December.

Conditional seasonality: The better the year, the stronger the December
Recently, there has been a lot of talk in the investor community about de-risking and investors locking in their performance for the year. This has resulted in more bearishness going into the year end, as many have questioned the potential for further market upside based on the sustainability of the economic recovery. A seasonal analysis conditional on year-to-date performance tells a very different story. The better the performance has been from January to November, the more positive the return has tended to be in December (Exhibit 5).

GOLDMAN SACHS: HOW TO TRADE THE END OF THE YEAR

GOLDMAN SACHS: HOW TO TRADE THE END OF THE YEAR

Where to play it? Italy and Germany have been the best performers:

GOLDMAN SACHS: HOW TO TRADE THE END OF THE YEAR

Michael

xerxes said...

Dear Michael...Bloomberg said that it usually is profitable to go long at the end of the NY session till Monday morning, on Thanksgiving weekend ... So one can stuff their face, wash it with booze and awaken with a hangover and a bulging bank account on Monday :-)

boris said...

Dear Michael,
One cannot argue about Seasonality.
it is wonderful when it works and it is awful when it does not.

We shall see.

They have also said 86-100 OIL by year end

they have also said 200-250 oil by 2008

Yes, and I am president of CHINA

GS is BS

that is all

They have zero value for my perspective

Good Trading Dear Michael

xerxes said...

Futures getting crushed but that Golden Euro Dear Boris is outperforming even the relic itself :-)

boris said...

Yes, but EURO was not a leader in this rally and it may not lead on the downside either, but once GOLD rolled over so will EURO , trust me

One day and one AP at a time

Good Trading Dear Xerxes

xerxes said...

I trust you Dear Boris :-)

But I thought the relic rolled already as it 'crashed' from 1195 to 1182 :-)

John said...

Boris

good morning


old john

boris said...

Dear John
Good Morning,

GOod Trading My Very Dear Friend
John

boris said...

We have a very nice Picture of
AP examples, in front of this post.
It is instructive EVEN to me
(:-
Good Trading

John said...

Boris

Best explanation ever given.
Pictures are easy to understand


old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Thanks YOu Dear Friend ENjoy

Good Trading

xerxes said...

How's the peso doing today Dear Boris? One of the banks recommended it, so Betty said...Margaret said to be long the euro and shares from 5 pm EST till Monday's open ...

boris said...

Update
On DotNet
Regarding Today And Expections next few days

Good Trading

xerxes said...

Good Morning Dear Boris

boris said...

Good Morning Dear Xerxes
We will move to new post

Good Trading Dear Freind Xerxes

xerxes said...

A Bloomberg guest says that there are over 5000 city workers making more than 1 million pounds in bonus every year