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Gold Update Chart Large Picture
Uranium Update, Yellow Reading .75 good , hang on LAM/MGA ,stops below 3 day lows
Dear Readers, something strange is going on with Q's their pressure readings are erratic as they are leading the market higher. So, today we find the the Buy Pressure fall strong and Sell Pressure rise uncomfortably for Q's. That is not the case at all with SPX. In any case, I find this not alarming as long as we do not have a strong down day 1.5-3%, I do not see the downside continuation possible. Just in case all longs must pull up to 1.5% protection or tighter, depending on you capability to stand the market decline( remember our longs are from 18 Aug). Still expecting the ~18 Sep to be high of sorts. Due To Discussions about gold we decided to update Gold Pressure Oscillator for you Dear Readers.
Dear Readers, something strange is going on with Q's their pressure readings are erratic as they are leading the market higher. So, today we find the the Buy Pressure fall strong and Sell Pressure rise uncomfortably for Q's. That is not the case at all with SPX. In any case, I find this not alarming as long as we do not have a strong down day 1.5-3%, I do not see the downside continuation possible. Just in case all longs must pull up to 1.5% protection or tighter, depending on you capability to stand the market decline( remember our longs are from 18 Aug). Still expecting the ~18 Sep to be high of sorts. Due To Discussions about gold we decided to update Gold Pressure Oscillator for you Dear Readers.
Ha anyone noticed? TNX ( interest rates) has turned up Yesterday. I thought we would get to 4.275 or so, but close enough we got to ~4.30. We Shorted TNX at 5.30 (absolute top of last 6 years!) remember? We may have turned, which means, Just as suggested in June, no maturities of more than 3 years in FIXED INCOME PORTFOLIO please. Have them... Get RID OF THEM NOW.
One more thing, do not tell me you are betting on Stronger Dollar. Forget it till next PASSOVER March 2008, If anything should be short $US already.
08:42 ET, EVIL SISITERS CHF/JPY are pressuring Stock Market Lower.
12 comments:
G'day Boris and team. Some gold analysis that's quite interesting.
This one by Adrian Douglas was published on August 27, but still is valuable.
COMEX GOLD OPTION OPEN INTEREST INDICATES LARGE MOVE TO THE UPSIDE
http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Pubished%20Articles/assets/COMEX%20GOLD%20OPTION%20OI.pdf
This Douglas follow-up was written on September 5.
FURTHER OPTION POSITION ANALYSIS POINTS TO MASSIVE UPLEG
http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Pubished%20Articles/assets/FURTHER%20OPTION%20POSITION%20ANALYSIS.pdf
This chart projecting the gold price is from Jim Sinclair (and explains his occasional and previously mystifying references in commentaries to gold going to “hit all the angels”!).
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5159_AngelChart.pdf
Good trading to all
Malcolm
Dear Malcolm,
Thanks a lot. We are, of course, longer time comitted to this upside move ( since end of June). But it is nice to see that others confirm what we knew all along. Just to make it more interesting we do not expect this market to top at least until DEC, which does not mean there is no correction coming. But to entice people to go long gold at this juncture. I could not do.
I could not do it for my money or anybodies money.
Now, of course , gold shoots to the moon and I will be told I contributed to the lack of gains for some people, but so be it.
For me, at least markets are not knowable at all junctures. I am humble enough to know, when I do not really do not know what will happen.
Infliction time in gold has come and gone in Early July. The only way we/others can play this market is on pullbacks with extreme protective measuers and GOLD has not given of it at this juncture. It may not give any until DEC either
WHo knows, but I appreciate you Malcolm, giving me this chance to speak about gold.
And yes what am I stupid or what. I mentioned I had only two Australians and missed the nicest one of them.
You, of course, Good Trading Dear Malcolm
hello malcolmm:
of course, the global situation is quite different this year, but last year PM's got hit bad end of summer (for central bank selling reasons, according to The Man), then shot up or "surged", and then plummeted in a bad way to about USD 565 or 560 last around early october if i recall correctly..
this time as Boris says it might skyrocket all the way to DEC, but that view is risky..
Just FYI, i think europe central banks have 2-3 more weeks to sell up to about 100 Tons of GOLD, so let's see where this takes us.\
cheers
Dear Dxb,
We value your opinions here, enourmously, We certainly do not sit and wait for our own preditions to come true. We have the world class wanring system GOLD oscillaotr, we posted it this weekend.
I maybe right you maybe right, we both maybe wrong, but eh OSCILLATOR/PRESSURE is never wrong.
We interperters could be wrong sometimes, but that is a readers error not the OSCILLATORS.
Again, Dear DXB, we appreciate every one of your word. We know you are a knowledgable in these matters and we love your participation.
GOod Day Dear DXB and Happy New Year ( ROSH HASHANA, Jewish New Year) to you.
Good Trading
Hello Boris:
I was only repeating your view that entering into GOLD now could end up being a bad idea as it may correct, hence your lack of recommendation to enter into it now.
On the other hand it may keep shooting up and then people might blame you for not pushing them to go long.
regards
and happy new year
Dear DXB,
I appreciate and understand. Many new commers or even experienced traders, look for outside signals to do something or not to do something. That is a mark of not so matured trader. More matured traders know that nobody is capable of knwoing the markets at all times and they "GRAB" the opportunity when it first arises, lest there will be not second chance.
But chosing what I do, I must continue do it gaithfully and explain to Friends and Reeaders where I come from. It takes time for all of us to mature ( hack i am still not mature).
Patience is OK. Our friends know I have a strong character and will accept any criticism.
they also know in the long run this is the only way.
That is what I am here to teach.
Love all readers respect their strengths and weakness. We are all human. I am just past the point where I am scared of either making errors or taking responsibility for them.
Thanks for reminding me my job(: :)
Good trading Dear DXB. And for some time let the charts speak. At the end of the day they are higher authority then all of us.
Good Trading again
The set up for a crash here had various anomalies that made it difficult.
The crash period is usually 56 cal days and that is due Thursday.
But it is also usually 155 cal days from the previous important low and that targetted 16th August and so it was.
What I find interesting is that Shanghai generates a 155 day target from a previous low on 7th Nov.
Carolan's lunar calendar crash dates based on Babylonian thinking has worked for every important crash and has 7th Nov for this year.
If this is the case then Asian markets should peak right now and begin 56 cal days down.
What effect this will have globally remains to be seen.
Hello again. I've just revisited and see that the link for the angel chart from Jim Sinclair did not transfer properly. It is:
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5159_AngelChart.pdf
Appreciate the further advice Boris and dxb. Gold is certainly a high-risk venture at this stage after the run-up there's been, but I figured the info could be useful for anyone working out how much of a pullback might be necessary to consider an entry.
One other caution: those manipulating the markets have pulled plenty of knock-the-price-down tricks out of the bag in the past. If they've got any left they will produce them at the moment guaranteed to deliver most pain to the longs.
These things we discuss are not directions to enter or desist from a trade, of course - crikey, I'm flat out working out directions for myself on my own trades! - but factors that might help each individual considering a trade to make an informed decision on whether or not, and when, to pull the trigger.
I would imagine Boris that inexperienced traders would appreciate your caution - Rule 1: don't lose money - and the experienced ones know how to take care of themselves and make best use of your invaluable information.
It's one of the compensatory things about getting (quite) a few years on board isn't it: not being scared of making errors and welcoming responsibility for our own actions. Still working on improving my judgment, though!
That's useful info about the pattern last year dxb - reminds me that Elliott Wave International is still forecasting that gold will drop to below $500! Just the thought of it is enough to make my scrotum tighten when I consider a buy ... but then again, looking at the past performance of the oscillators and timing of the change in price direction, there might be a few days left in this run yet ... decisions, decisions. :)
Dear Voltaire,
I find this very interesting. I know the Calorans considerations even though do not follow it closely.
If Nov 7 is what it maybe than that would not be too far from the OCT 21 area in time.
And who knows, perhaps the timer for crash is now for a new "upcoming" markets like CHINA. Not USA and/or Japan.
Food For Thought.
Good Trading
Boris
As a side note, in '87 we Aussies had a crash low on 20th Oct but a final low a little lower on 11th Nov.
Perhaps that still fits with your scenario.
Dear Malcolm,
Thanks, there may be VERY GOOD days left in this runup. All it takes few stupid large shorts to come in and the movers and shakers will hand them their heads on the plate!
This is a crazy market. You are correct noting though that the Relly long oscillator(CYAN) points to plenty of time for this bull to roll over.
Good Trading
Dear Voltaire, you are right.
USA markets also had a mini echo crash on/around that date
Good Trading
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