Dear Readers, we got the sell signal no doubt, the question is are we going have to sell after few more distribution days or a bit of upsurge before the real powerful signs of sell signal emerge. Obviously, signal coming just day before the fed announcement is a only making it more susceptible to wiggles. Summation Line turned down ( for good or just to turn up couple more days, market up?). Not clear, we need to be alert to all possibilities in the world. One thing there no doubt about is a sell environment we operate in. Only question is ... is the market strong enough to cause this sell Delay and allow market to go even higher, in which case, the "crash scenario" will look more distant, as the sentiment would have changed to favor longs and SELL would only cause minimal damage.
Bottom Line is that price action must confirm the sell before it is a final and we must look for a chance to position on the short side. We are already positioned on the long side, remember?
Bottom Line is that price action must confirm the sell before it is a final and we must look for a chance to position on the short side. We are already positioned on the long side, remember?
Like a clock work just before markets open the JPY is send on leash... and down on its knees. How do you like that for conspiracy?
Ok, no need to get excited. We maybe getting what we would have hoped. A day or two of more distribution, which will begin today if we get all the expectations washed out of the market, via whipsaw day.
8 comments:
Boris,
Up early as usual, how about a small short position and add to it later? just a thought.
Old John
My analysis showing a sell signal but tomorrow Mr. B. is about to say his word and things can get out of control in perspective of technical analysis.
Stay tuned.
Dear John,
I do not like to take any short positions, if you would like to , what looks to you like a small position, OK, but where would you go short.
I do not have that point yet.
Good Trading
Good To hear from you Dear Indextrading.
Good Luck and good trading.
It is indeed a difficult time to trade, but nobody is forcing anybody to...
Good Trading
Boris,
I will patiently wait.
Old John
Dear John,
misstatment, Of course, I should have said.
I do not like to take any short poistions at this moment.
Precisely, because I do not know where would I place the sell and sell stop YET.
Good Trading
Dear Boris,
Some numbers regarding Bear-market situation.If we do not crash -20%in 2 days. In a more "normal case we will go down-down under a period of time.
Since 1950 there have been 16 declines in the S&P 500 of at least 15 percent. 9 have coincided with recessions.
Stand-alone bear markets have tended to be shorter in duration. The seven stand-alone bear markets have had an average duration of 215 days. They include the 1987 decline, which bottomed 55 days from the peak in the market, and the 45-day correction in 1998. The 1976 stand-alone bear market was the outlier here, lasting more than 500 days.
Recession-induced bear markets tend to be longer. Stocks head lower over time as bad news continues to trickle out. The average length of recession-induced bear markets is 491 days, more than twice the duration of stand-alone bear markets. The 1990 decline was the only brief recession-induced bear market, lasting less than 100 days.
Outside of 1987, stand-alone bear market declines have held in a relatively tight range. Half of these bear markets (1961, 1966, and 1976) resulted in roughly 25 percent declines while the other half (1971, 1983, and 1998) experienced between 15 percent and 20 percent declines.
The depths reached during recession-induced bear markets have been more variable. In three cases the S&P 500 dropped by more than 35 percent, including the bear markets beginning in 1973 and in 2000. Stocks declined by 36 percent during the 1968 bear market as investors grappled with the first recession in almost 10 years, the longest recession-free stretch up to that point.
Good trading
Istvan
Dear Istvan,
Excellent Survey.
Good trading
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