Thursday, February 08, 2007
Stock Market Under Assault
Dear Readers, Stock Market is coming under assault, from Commodities ( read inflation). Grains up (1-2)% Metals up ~1%, OILS up (2-3)%, Does anybody think the inflation will show up in FEB and more so in MAR readings. Well, if this does not break the markets I do not know what will. The only wild card remaining is BONDS. So far, I do not see the IR rising, but I think they will, or alternately, perhaps they will create a Safe Haven to a big drop in the Stock Market. This is an important juncture, break down here is possible in The Stock Market ( Should Goldilocks turn into Goldiblocks). Good Trading
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11 comments:
This should be it Boris. Im playing it with EEM puts. Less likely to get manipulated on the way down and more bang for the buck. Best James
Good To hear From you Dear James. Good Luck with the trade. Good Trading
I recall you saying that the US market is crazy. Just take a look at Australia's All Ords (XAO.AX). It's got 5930 - 6000 in its sight (although 6000 will be quite difficult to reach without a decent pullback). From the looks of it, the Dow's fall today is likely to be a fake down before another move to record territory.
congrats to all who bought gold and gold mining stocks. Gold is showing strength and looks to break 700 in the near term. GG looks poised to hit 29.
Sorry(: :) to dissapoint you Dear Jebuskrite, the projection of XAO.AX is...
Between 6130 6330, which is more like 6230, right in between them. I like the latter one, cause it is higher degree limit ( Decenial )... Now, you see Markets do not look so crazy on the valuation bases, but this is a trap. We have reached the point where fiat money sloshing around may no more be considered profit. Now the moneys may have to be "redistributed" so that the "proletariat" does not rebel overthrow the modern day "sopitalism" ( that s for Social Capitalism, Social for rich though ). So everybody from FED to PRESIDENT down to Democrats, of course , are talking about "inequality" of income distribution. Wages are rising finally and profit margins are coming down even as the amount of FIAT is sloshing the high sea. The public finally go smarter, they are not going into the market, burned twice, in stocks and now in real estate they have had enough. So the "Sopitalists" are now looking at each other ans saying, " hay party is on, little guy we wanted to bring in is not coming". Time is coming to leave the Titanic. That is what is coming, but first we have to hit the numbers above and DOW 12800. Good Trading Dear Jebuskrite.
Dear Rent, good to hear from you. Congrats indeed to all. So, we did not go to ~500 after all, at least not yet, but we have never niglected to say, if you do not have at least a core position in GOLD, we do not want to talk to you (: :). Gold will make you free.
Good Trading
After seeing today's market action, I have to agree that 6000 should be reached no problem.
I don't feel disappointed with your projection at all. My only problem is that I don't feel like I can confidently add a SUBSTANTIAL amount to my long term holdings at this point in time.
I'm just curious as to what you suggest by "Time is coming to leave the Titanic." Personally, I'd see any large correction as a buying opportunity since the long term bull market from 2003 lows should continue for another couple of years in both the US and especially the Aus markets.
Dear Jenuskrite, I can not and will not deny the possibility of the market not having the crash all the way until 2010. That certainly is possible, but the only way it will happen by FIAT, that is markets will be rising, cause the money is losing value. In another words, "it is your currency stupid" and this time I mean all currencies ( not just dollar). A little example from 1974 to 1981 before 82 crash, the market rose some 40%, but considering 21%(yearly!) IRates in 2980 and similar inflation it actually lost the value. By Aug 1982, market has lost about 80% of its real value from 1966. Of course, there were peoople then that thought we were in the bull market(remember 1973... no, then read about it). OK, suckers never die they get replaced. Why bother selecting stocks paying comissions to brokers and all other troubles, when you can just buy GOLD and collect the gains. GOLD is the only true currency. Since 2000 if you did that you would be up 200% but even in DOW. Yes, but GOLD declined for 20 years? who cares? I did not advice to buy GOLD in 1980. I am advising now. Times are the KINGS not the KINGS... if you know what I mean. There is time for all things in life, and now this is the time to get your safe haven in GOLD.
So, to reiterate, in real terms Titanic is already sinking and it will sink for good for next 5-10 years. In nominal terms... well, please do not get blinded in nominal terms... this my brotherly request and friendly advice. It is not that TITANIC is coming, IT is already here. It will be speeded up by Democrats and Rpublicans as well, as they try to please the "proletariate" I hope this is clear, if not please ask again. I am certain, I am not missing anything here.
Good Trading
Dear Readers, Dear Jebuskrite, condition number one for intellectual discussion is to find the commonly agreed and understood language. When I talk about markets it may not alway clear where do I come from, cause I keep saying market will go higher and market will go lower and people get confused where the hell is the market going. Well, the answer lies in the "real terms" , market is going higher, but it is going lower in real terms over the intermediate to long term ( 5-10 yeras). I hope that next time I do not specify things correctly, you remind me to put the proper terms in. Dear Jebuskrite and all thanks a lot for your audience and interest. Good Trading
Dear Jebuskrite one more item. I agree completely with having difficulty to committ money to a 3-4% upside. Yes, indeed that has been my point. Playing with the market here is only for PROs.
Good Trading
I see where your coming from. Thanks Boris.
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