Dear Readers, only 4c away from our top and now we are 50c down from there. HA?
Has anybody noticed that bonds have also erased almost all their gains. I expect them to erase last two days gains tomorrow upon empoyment number announcement.
Well, IR's are up on the day.
Good Trading
Note: breaking below 43.80 could be the KISS good by for QQQQ. Strong support here.
16 comments:
Hello Boris,
If this closes below 43.80, is this an entry on a short position for qq qq ?
Please provide a range for p c u as I am noticing declining volume on spikes ? I know the dividend is coming up and normally this spikes on decent volume but this time ???
Dear Byzanman, the entry to short was 44.44, of course. Now significance of 43.80 is local ( intraday ), while the 44.44 may last. It could actually be last opportunity to sell. I am sorry for being busy with currency options and not expanding on the comments, but that is what it is.
PCU. Perfect sell at 64.76 ( daily siginificatnce that could become longer term important) . Actual high 64.38. One could sell this sucker, but that would have to be seen only as a short term opportunity at this time ( frankly I would not take it on the risk/reward bases). That simply means that I would something else to short/long.
Good Trading
Dear Byzanman, looks like the PCU got really close to perfect sell. Good Trading
Dear Byzanman, Sorry it was RYL I was looking at it hit 57.62, well this could be the really perfect sell, but how much are you going to risk. I do not think the risk is acceptable anymore.
Good Trading
Hello Boris.
Could you give me limits for SCU on the AMEX. Thanks.
Danno
Dear Danno, it is hard to read this stock intraday, but on a monthly bases it could visit .30 from current .88. Three days ago the stock has shown local trend end on the downside and rallied a bit but, I think it is heading lower again. If it ever goes up the first target is 2.00
Good Trading
Hello Boris,
I could not agree more, especially with the fed news yesterday.
As far as the qqqq, I can not determine any bias on direction.
I suppose that this is waiting on govt reports tomorrow. But it looks
to me that the qqqq is setting up for an upside move on the short term (2-4 days).
Dear Byzanman, We are not able to tell the markets what to do(: :), but we can forecast what we think is going to happen and then take an action. Today, I would have no hesitation selling QQQQ at 44.44 +-5c. The reason is simple when SPX sell pressure is high and Buy pressure is almost nonexistant, we know ( the rule ) we are not scared of selling market tops on those 1-4 day consolidation. Our experience has been that we can take a .5 % risk ( which we never tak due to our precision top picking ) and be profitable within 2-4 days. I do not expect market to run away here. Not with what our pressure picture is. It is a different story with strong stocks ( which you seem to like to short (: :)). These stocks did not get there without some very powerful interests pushing it there. So, I feel, shorting them is fun and great satisfaction, but pure profitable excercise. I would rather short an index ( less manipulatable, not unmmanipulatable) and/or a stock that has shown weakness for last 2-3 weaks, at least. Good Trading
Thank you Boris, I think you saw right through me and put me on the couch ! I may have a "david and golith" complex ! I am going back and forth on this p c u short like a cheap compass...I know it is probably one of the best div stocks there is, but can not help but place some thought that at div time, this stock takes it and takes it hard. My thinking says you are unquestionably correct, but my (:) side wants to play this.
Believe it or not, I am thinking bull run on j o y g. I like this company and would like your take on this.
Thanks again Dr. Boris !
Dear Boris: about gold (gcj7)- Is this a hanging man I see before me - with a hammer in dxh7? I've got a gcj 650/660 spread and it's good, but if the hanging man is confirmed tomorrow we may some days down, while usd heads north.
Dear Byzanman, I am stating facts. We are all gamblers in our harts, we often like to hit the ACE rather than calmly put the ball in the corner. That is OK, that is part of having FUN, please do not misandderstand me, I like your spirit. I am just provoking your though about why are you in. What is more important having fun or making money. You will find a balance, but please do not lose fun completely, I will get back to you about JOYG(: :) good trading.
Dear Nick, I agree that I see a hngman in GOLD and I think it will take the hit sometime now. I just think that it may not be that big of a deal, cause I have strong seasonal until 14, while cycles call low at the same stretch ( 5-20 FEB). Considering that there is no sign of stoppage of Money Printing, I can not see how the GOLD is going to take a big drubbing. In short, I am buyer on pullbacks Dear Nick, while agree on a need to the same.
Sorty was not sure, Are you long the spread, or short?
Good Trading
Dear Nick,
Yes I agree that $dollar could take a jump. If I am correct about IR(interest rates) rising tomorrow ( employment payroll numbers) than, I see IR-up,$-up and GOLD/ENERGY taking a rest? By the way you see the reversal in OIL as well, right?
Good Trading
Dear Byzanman,
53.34, 55.88,60.22 are your upside targets. On the downside 40.49, 37,96 are your downside. If you were to take a long position, please make sure that market does not drop below 46.49 on you. Good Trading
Dear Boris;
Gold: I agree it doesn't look like it will go far down, more likely consolidate, perhaps round 660. I'm long a march option 650/660 spd on the gcj7, so all it has to do is stay above 650. I agree with you about the dollar and IR. I'm looking at $tnx and the last 2 days are very volatile and I can't see what's next.
Oil: This last 10 days or so looks like speculation on a storm. The storage numbers are very bearish - we have a lot of oil, unless something happens in geopolitics. vlo is always a good guide to oil and it is forming a hanging man on big volume so I think it may be time for a short on oil if it confirms tomorrow.
nick
Dear Nick, we seem to agree on few things, here, but let's clarify $tnx. You may have noticed my comments that I expected the IR's to go higher after, perhaps initially, faking the going down. I thought that the bottom will come yesterday, but I believe , my scenario was few hours off. So we got the bottom today. In my opinion the payroll numbers will be strong and that will cause the IR's go shoot up and all other things we talk about will come out of that as a simple result. Dollur up , GOLD and ENERGY correcting a bit and the Stocks down ( perhaps after initial fake up ). Yes your spread will do best if GOLD settles exactly at 660( if you are long 650 and short 660). Good Luck and GOod Trading Dear Nick.
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