Trouble at the Fed?.... Fed's Bies, policy centrist, to step down - Reuters - 2 hours, 3 minutes ago Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies, a banking expert and monetary-policy centrist, will step down on March 30, the central bank said on Friday, marking the third top Fed official to announce a departure this year
I like reading other traders sentiment heres a classic and note the date:: Posted by: airedale88 In reply to: lexus300 who wrote msg# 25472 Date:2/7/2007 10:15:44 PM Post #of 25496
lex, nothing right now. don't fight the trend. we are in a major bull market, regardless of the status of the 4.5 yr cycle.
Dear Dxb, I agree, the fed people seem to have one task that not too many grasp. Why are they talking about inflation 2.2 being too high.. 1) it is a lie it is more like 3.5. 2) what they really worrry about is the $dollar collapse privention. They are afraid that if they do not talk up interest rate "talk" people will dump the BONDS and Dollar and that is the what keeps them awake at nights. Belive me... Good Trading
boris, you are right on about the fed right now looking to be vigilant against inflation. It's all smoke and mirrors. On the one hand they talk about being firm and may raise rates to combat inflation. On the other hand, I suspect that they are buying long bonds to keep rates low so that the housing don't collapse. On a third front, the Fed with the help of GS, MS are priming the market. CAn you imagine how consumers & baby boomers feel if their houses and stocks collapse at the same time? The consumer contraction at retails/restaurant/service industry would happen so quick that we would be right in the middle of a depression now. The Fed is in prevention mode while looking to be in control. Smoke and Mirrors. Look at the latest poll on consumer confidence. I think that rising dow has a huge role in propping up the consumer's mood. But time is not on the Fed's side. Housing will fall and more people will find it more difficult to refi out of the Option ARM into a fix because of falling prices coupled with more conservative lending standards. Subprime explosion will spill over to non-subprime in regards to the underwriting of a loan. It's sad to see what is happening regarding housing, how people's finances and credit are being destroyed but fascinating to see it unfold at the same time. We are witnessing the destruction of capital in real-time. Gold is the safe haven that many will later pile on. By then it may be over $1000 per ounce.
Dear Rent, I fully agree with all you say. The details may differ and timing may differ in our analysis, but the outcome and the causes are right on. Sooner or later tht is exactly what will Happen. I could enlarge on the subject, but my answers to Dear Jubuscrite in todays earlier posts, I was pretty detailed about what I see. Amen Dear Rent.
12 comments:
Trouble at the Fed?.... Fed's Bies, policy centrist, to step down - Reuters - 2 hours, 3 minutes ago
Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies, a banking expert and monetary-policy centrist, will step down on March 30, the central bank said on Friday, marking the third top Fed official to announce a departure this year
Deaer James, I guess that she got tired of lies and said adios...
GOod Trading
Dear Boris That would certainly be a refreshing event. I couldnt deal with that much lieing regardless what I was paid. Best James
Dear James, That makes us different
Good Trading
Hi James,
What is your time period for the 90 PUTs on EEM ? Mar? June? Jan 2008 ?
i also notice the official temperature on housing "slowdown" has gone up this past week
I like reading other traders sentiment heres a classic and note the date:: Posted by: airedale88
In reply to: lexus300 who wrote msg# 25472 Date:2/7/2007 10:15:44 PM
Post #of 25496
lex, nothing right now. don't fight the trend. we are in a major bull market, regardless of the status of the 4.5 yr cycle.
aire
Dear Dxb, I agree, the fed people seem to have one task that not too many grasp. Why are they talking about inflation 2.2 being too high.. 1) it is a lie it is more like 3.5. 2) what they really worrry about is the $dollar collapse privention. They are afraid that if they do not talk up interest rate "talk" people will dump the BONDS and Dollar and that is the what keeps them awake at nights. Belive me...
Good Trading
AAAAAAUM I am trading The March 120 strike puts EEEMOD you could use the 115s now that it has dropped. OTMs are to expensive. Good Luck James
Sorry EEMOD. Another note this initial thrust down is being met with heavy call buying and that usually means more downside soon. Best James
boris, you are right on about the fed right now looking to be vigilant against inflation. It's all smoke and mirrors. On the one hand they talk about being firm and may raise rates to combat inflation. On the other hand, I suspect that they are buying long bonds to keep rates low so that the housing don't collapse. On a third front, the Fed with the help of GS, MS are priming the market. CAn you imagine how consumers & baby boomers feel if their houses and stocks collapse at the same time? The consumer contraction at retails/restaurant/service industry would happen so quick that we would be right in the middle of a depression now. The Fed is in prevention mode while looking to be in control. Smoke and Mirrors. Look at the latest poll on consumer confidence. I think that rising dow has a huge role in propping up the consumer's mood. But time is not on the Fed's side. Housing will fall and more people will find it more difficult to refi out of the Option ARM into a fix because of falling prices coupled with more conservative lending standards. Subprime explosion will spill over to non-subprime in regards to the underwriting of a loan. It's sad to see what is happening regarding housing, how people's finances and credit are being destroyed but fascinating to see it unfold at the same time. We are witnessing the destruction of capital in real-time. Gold is the safe haven that many will later pile on. By then it may be over $1000 per ounce.
Dear Rent,
I fully agree with all you say. The details may differ and timing may differ in our analysis, but the outcome and the causes are right on. Sooner or later tht is exactly what will Happen. I could enlarge on the subject, but my answers to Dear Jubuscrite in todays earlier posts, I was pretty detailed about what I see. Amen Dear Rent.
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