1273 1271 1268 1264 $spx 1281 1283 1286 1290
11509 11489 11457 11417 ym 11594 11614 11646 11687
10:14 ET, and the OIL and the GOLD , the MAJOR ANTIDOLLARS
HAVE COLLAPSED,
Just as we told them to(:- in our reports.
Remember everybody and their mother was bullish on those, just read the titles of popular places visited by investors.
Please note the intermediate low point is close for ANTIDOLLAR 25+-1 trading day ( I think)
11509 11489 11457 11417 ym 11594 11614 11646 11687
10:14 ET, and the OIL and the GOLD , the MAJOR ANTIDOLLARS
HAVE COLLAPSED,
Just as we told them to(:- in our reports.
Remember everybody and their mother was bullish on those, just read the titles of popular places visited by investors.
Please note the intermediate low point is close for ANTIDOLLAR 25+-1 trading day ( I think)
22 comments:
buy SRS
Dear Lag,
Good Morning
Good Trading
Boris
i continue to marvel how strong the pound continues to be. It's roaring strong today, up against the other currencies.
Since you predict a sharp downturn, the question has to be when. How long can this surge go up? Any ideas Boris?
Robert
Dear Robert,
In my humble opinion GBP is a sick
currency. Just have to stomach to hold on shorts, if you are.
I still do not know what can make this currency go, except all RUSSIAN exiles bringing TRILLIONS there or ARAB country dwellers scared of their TRILLIONS bring their money there.
I think with OIL going lower that is stopping not enahancing.
Just wait. It is held up there by higher GBP rates and speculators as long as JPY keep being sold off.
CARRY TRADE.
As soon as that stops ( SOON - couple months at most)
GBP is a TOAST.
GOod Trading
Boris,
My understanding was that you believed a longer term bottom (1-2 years) would come in March/April of 2009. This also seemed to be what the YBR was suggesting if I recall correctly. What has changed your opinion?
Boris,
JPY short seems to be a squeeze right now and reversing. will this help stop carry trade and push GBP lower?
Dear D,
We have come down considerable from the highs.
Then we havd a climactic bottom in the market ( financials ).
And really not a lot has changed.
YBR wants to have a bottom in march and it may have it.
YBR though does not relly decatate the levels, as much as it does timing.
So, Yes we coud have lows in MARCH and that may or may not be lower than JULY or August. And AUGUST may or may not be lower than JUly.
Timing is what is important for YBR not levels.
Now, frankly I do not think that we have accomplished even a typical bear market lows, but only if we think in CONVENTIONAL terms.
That way the SPX/DOW were down abut 25% at the bottom. Not enough and time is not enouch from the top to the bottom, we should at least go lower into SEP/OCT.
Now, I am not exactly convertional thinker and I look at REAL SPX and level wise it has delcined over 30% that is good for a bear market, not enough, but good.
Yet another look at the same REAL SPX sows that we should really be touching the lows of 2003 ( on the readl bases) and we have not. We missed it by 10-15%, which sends me back to the idea that we are not done with the lows.
So, in a word , not much changed, the same ambiguity that trader has to live with is still with us/me.
March still could low, but I can not rule out that we have bottomed in JULY, especailly as far as financials maybe concerned.
Just doing my usual ifs and buts, but utilising the shorter term info to make the calls, like we did in JULY.
Dear D. You my friend , of all people know very well, I an not even a half GOD, so I must go through all of this garbage to make the sense for me and for subscribers.
I just do my job best I can(:-
Love you man. You made me think again , I was not going to.. today.
Good Trading
Dear ??? , WALDO?
Well, if we are approachin a local resping place in the stocks then we should see the JPY stronger and GBP retreat. Yes.
Good Trading
Boris,
Thanks for the clarification on your thoughts. I weigh a lot of information and your recent words have become more market neutral.
Dear D,
You caught the sentiment just right. Exactly.
I can not go into this now, but , I have caught one very interesting pattern, that suggests that Markets could considerably higher into 2009 ( no new highs, at least not on the REAL SPX), but higher.
Let me state thought that the rest of that pattern is AWFUL, SCARY, because it suggests RECESSION/DEPRESSION into 2011-2012.
Yes, YOU PAY ME NOW( have very bad markets now) OR YOU PAY ME LATER(...(:- )
Good Trading
Boris
Earlier, you recommended a gold-oil spread--buy gold and sell oil. For such a deal, what do you suggest on the mix? One for one? Or two gold contracts versus one oil contract? Or something else?
In terms of the US election this fall, what will that reality do your ideas on the spread?
As i am apolitical and not in support of either of the major candidates, i have no bias on the election. But clearly, the momentum is with Obama. McCain conveys an image of being old, tired and pathedic. One must wonder if he can reverse this profile.
So what will a surging Obama do to the future and even as early as now with the campaign underway in terms of a gold-oil spread?
Finally, one must ask about the high probability of a US attack on Iran. What will that do to your spread? In such an attack, will gold explode up with a huge surge in oil?
Thanks for your views on this issue.
Robert
Dear Robert,
All excellent questions.
You know my answer about poilitics, right(:- ?
First I think markets and then POILITICS is predicted right?
If I thought inverse, I would have been shouting BUY OIL when MOPHAS and AHMEDIN JIHAD ( Israeli and Iranian) were in a "heated" exchange, yours truely saw something very different. Hi C's ( Piano) were getting hit and we had to come down.
Ok, so, I am going to stick siwh my market forecast and it should forecast whe politics will bring.
Ok then. I think OIL too expenseive compared to GOLD that is it. I need no other reasons to by this spread. I could care less about any contexts, political, sociological etc.
Now , if I am correct that means that we are gettin into the era then where gold will be supported by political system ( knowingly or unknowingly). I think OBAMA will do that better. Spend in areas that benefit GOLD, KEEP interest rate , inflietion(:- differential beneficial for GOLD etc. etc.
Remember CARTER era. MAYBE, jyst MAYBE that is where we are going.
Technically I would spread execta DOLLAR AMOUNT. Very simple. Then relative percentage changes will take care of the rest.
Good Trading Dear Robert. Thanks for you questions
dear boris
your gold advice worth a lot of gold :-)
thanx a lot .
sharon
Dear Sharon,
If you want to do a bit of your CORE gold holdings here ( A BIT i said right? and I mean 1/10 the of what you want to own as a CORE) you are welcome to do here.
Good Trading
dear boris thanx
first bit now, the other one in next quarter or 10% down for $ cost averaging?
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
I LOVE THAT THINKING.
EXEACTLY
GOod Trading
Boris,
just curious to ask normally how many days in average does smart money drive in one direction? such as in the case of killing JPY to prop up DOW since last Tuesday.
sold DUG 36.10
Dear ANTI-SOPITALIST(in Hebrew)(:-
I think MDS has a bit of an answer to that question.
It has a cycle of about 6 trading days!
Good Trading
Dear Lag,
Good Luck
Good Trading
picked up some more skf today
Dear Hopper,
ENJOY
Good Trading
Post a Comment