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We hit the Resistance cluster
INDU 11423
NYA 8700
TRAN 4882
SPX was not part of it so it has next one at 1296 and INDU needs to get over 11423 or ... DOWN
RUT/R2K support nicely at 689 Cluster Point/must hold,
this is also 61.8% FIB retrace of March/May Rally!!!
10:17ET, The above cluster seems to start crumbling and DEAR LAGs QID looks good
10:26 ET, TRAN is leading the market down , it has been leader lately. Bears watching very carefully, next possible turn 4778-4784 (support) now close!
10:54 ET, So far 4781.4 was the low smack in the mid of the support zone and holding up. Must support at this important level of 4778 area if we are to move up
11:05 ET, Bad hit for Tran below support next 4762 area and then yesterdays low at 4743
11:14 ET, at 1287 SPX has its own CLUSTER POINT and it is alos the AP , so far holding on the strong side of the bunch
11:44 ET, Dear Readers,TRAN is hitting double bottom at yesterday's bottom and time seems to be close to possible turn cycle around 1145 +-5 minutes.
11:48 ET, well this is it, it is either a turn here or continuation strongly down, TRAN has certainly broken down, Remember this was a strong side of the market fo a while
11:52 ET, we do have possibe exhaustion indications, but it only gets confirmed by prices springing up and there is no sign of that yet, No up candles anywhere
11:56 ET, 4709.20 Direct hit on another Tran CLuster Point and Signs of White candle on Tran 5 minute chart.!!!, white candles showing up all over JPY , NQ, ES , TRAN and fractal trends could be ending at this time. Another must hold for TRAN.
12:01, Tran registers 1st Higher high bar in 60 minutes time! HAVE WE HIT ONE OF THOSE GANN TIME AND PRICE CROSS?
12:13 ET, Exact low bar on $TRAN , yes 11:53 ET, which was 8 minutes from the center of our time bottom forecast.
13:27 ET, OK, market seems to have survived midday doll drums and JPY is above 106 ( FILAP) and The NQ and ES are attempting to break on the upside again, while TRAN has survived the important CLuster point low of 11:53 AM. Now is the time to rally or go down again. New lows from 14:30ET on will be disaster.
14:43 ET, Ok We are not short, but At least We are not/should not be long in this market, and INVESTORS WERE ASKED to allocate away from STOCKS to ENERGY and GOLD. about 10% or so, few weeks ago. THIS IS TRULY a Capital Preservation Time. If market thinks it is strong then let it show us and we will oblige, until then extreme caution, Please. Until SPX/EMINI go above 1287 again, I would not consider, even short term bullish scenario , seriously.
14:54 ET, 1274 on EMINI is a 62% FIB retracement of the rally from yesterday into this morning. Let us see if it holds any hope for bullish scenario. SPX has painted a Five wave decline from 8:00ET to 15:00 ET( now) and we are at the FIB retrace, action here warrants attention. Right below here is an FiveILAP for EMINI at 1272.50 approached at this point
15:06 ET, Both NQ and ES are at the 5th of the Volatile FiveILAP at this time. 1270.50 and 1838 resectively. High volatility APs are not distributed, Unless market shows high volatility, but for some reason they seem to at this point
15:12 ET, we see the bounce in all again JPY NQ ES and TRAN. Watch carefully here.
15:31 ET, Ok , those levels are getting violated on the downside, as this market gets uglier minute buy minute.
15:45 ET, today's trading seemed to be devoid of any much institutional presence, it seemed like only few traders were pushing prices from AP to AP without any springs for bounce up ( mostly).
32 comments:
Dear Boris
Forgive me for my ignorance, but what is TRAN?
Sharon
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Dear Sharon,
Tran is the $tran symbold
for DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION INDEX
GOod Trading
thanX boris
by the way, I sold my QLDs in small profit (during open hours). this market is too risky for me.
Good For you Dear Sharon,
I can not blame you for being risk AVERSE here
Good Trading
My string of # is showing after today things look much better for the down move. Today OK tho
My indicators have moved up about 1/4 of the way and with those 3-4 that have a long way to drop yet
Boris
like you said P/C ratio--today is looking better yet there for a down move
Not good
...........NYSE......NAZ
New Highs .. 27 .... 19
New Lows ... 586 .... 504
Dear Boris and all"
i just read an article by gold dealer Adian Ash which suggested that the ECB will raise interest rates tomorro. The dollar will fall and the central banks will intervene and buy dollars within the next week or so.
If this happens, it means trouble for the dollar until the central banks prop it up. With the focus on this blog on the SP and stocks, the question must be what happens to stocks with this scenario?
So Boris, how plausible is this scenario? If the ECB raises interest rates, what will be the impact on the markets?
Thanks for your advice Boris. It is the best around that i know of.
Robert
Dear Lag thanks
I see the ES mini working on ABC pattern supported at the CLUSTER Point ot 1287, if this gives, up we could be in for a loooooong day?
Good Trading
Dear Robert,
I think that the scenario is very plausible dear Robert.
I maintained all along that the CENTRAL hackers(Sorry BANKERS) will try and maintain Dollar down here as much as possible.
If people remember , that was my theses for Dollar flatlining as far as they can hold it.
For obvious reasons, the contracts take time to be negotiated and written and longer the Dollar is down here, more and more BUSINESS DECISIONS will be will be made with the WEAK Dollar in mind with all that comes out of this. People make MULTIBILLION DOLLAR decisions where to locate next plant and where to emply people and etc etc.
So this is not a childs game. It is clear that USA wants to teach people how to work again. So, wants to keep the Dollar Low.
In that context and the fact that they do not want the panic, they must keep it here by talk , to buy time for the entire world to slow down a bit as well, without Dollar Collapsing.
People are talking about intervnetion now... That is funny, where were they when we predicted that Dollar will turn ( or attempted to turn or stabilised) almost two years ago( in march 2008?)
Yes, as I said , If I have a forecast and I see polititians attending ( intevening ) in the market then I am even more confident in my forecast that Dollar will flatline and will eventually move higher at least a bit ( into late this , early next Year).
Now, I can not repeate this every day, but this has been our theses for a long/long time. True we expected a bigger turn up by now, but that is not a concern for now. We did not have Dollar make the lows 3 months now.
That is part of the forecast.
Can not guarantee Dollar will not make new lows, but it is not highly likely.
GOod Trading
Dear Readers,
TRAN is hitting double bottom at yesterday's bottom and time seems to be close to possible turn cycle around 1145 +-5 minutes.
Good Trading
Boris
Thanks for your view.
While there is not always a correlation between the dollar and US stocks, there often is.
i know you have talked about a turn down with a sell signal on the SP possibly soon. Yet, your MDS robot has had it on buy for the last couple of days. But as you note, this could change soon.
I mention this because if the dollar does go lower tomorrow with a ECB act, then stocks may fall sharply as well. This could accompany a sell signal on the SP.
i hope yoy are right on the dollar low for the time being. This morning the dollar hss floated down to near 72.
The historic lows earlier this year were around 71.5 or so. It won't have to fall much more and it could break the lows.
Various analysts have predicted a dollar low soon to 68. This would have major repercussions.
Robert
Dear Robert,
I do not say that Dollar can not go down, Of course it could.
I think that we are in a flatlining situation and I do not expect a real collapse Of the Dollar. That does not mean, I will remain long after the Lows of March are broken.
I would then have to go back to the mode I was in before March 2008. Bottom Fishing and that is why it is good to be trader and investor.
At some point Investor needs to take the positions and better that is done better the results will be.
I am encouraged with today's Market, holding up, not breaking down. It could mean that we are goint to have couple good days and that could help Dollar too.
Now Please understand that correlations are local and global.
If people look at the Dollar Stocks relationship they think that as Dollar goes down stocks go down on on many days that is exactly how it looks.
But In reality the correlation of stocks to Dollar are more of a inverse. As Dollar goes lower stocks go higher and inverse.
In my opinion, it is possible for a Dollar to go higher next few weeks and For stocks to go lower.
Pivotal point is coming up and it is on your GOLDPROJECTIONS chart. that Possible top in GOLD could coincide with the possible bottom ( perhaps not new bottom) in DOllar
I make long term forecasts for fun. Real work of the trader is in catching the waves that will get them on the Longer wave( hopefull) and if not then just jump off as fast as possible
Good Trading
Dear RObert,
Just to remind us.
I have send the Dollar chart today ( DOLLAR IN ELECTION YEARSA).
YOu see from there that the BIGGEST STOCK BOOL MARKET happened when? since 1985 to 1999.
What did the Dollar do in that time? It has been going down for all those years ( on and off)...
That is why I say Stocks Market is the WELFARE market.
Stocks Loved stealing money from Soicial Security and transfering it BUFFET and GATES and IMMELT and to the rest of RICH people.
Stock Market is a FRAUD
Good Trading
Boris
i hope you right on the dollar. as you have been on the SP.
i am not familiar with the MDS calculations on the SP. But in fairness, it has been extremely accurate. So we'll have to watch and see it signals a sell tomorrow.
Robert
Dear Robert,
Market has to rise , at least some, for us to get a sell signal. That is why I am hopeing it will, but I see the Tansports are getteint ready to break down again
Good Trading
added a little more qid on the dip
Dear Lag,
If the 1287 are is jumped over by ES mini.
This market could have a strong rally. I would carefully watch that area for stops.
ENJOY
GOod Trading
THX Boris
Dear Lag, Readers,
Lost a power there for 20 minutes.
and Market dove within that time.
Ok this is looking pretty ugly I must say.
At least We are not, should not be long in this market and INVESTORS WERE ASKED to allocate away from STOCKS to ENERGY and GOLD.
Good Trading
ISEE has been a little bullish the past 1 1/2 hr---good for the down
The euro is soaring , does the market signal Triche to hold his horses?
GLD is above 946 level as well
sold 2/3 of TWM @82
Dear Lag, ENJOY
Good Trading
Sold 2/3 of my shorts
Boris, pretty ugly indeed.
What is the probability that today was a retest of yesterday's lows and this level will hold (SPX, INDU)?
Dear Blaine,
May not be a bad probability.
Those patterns have been seen before, where the bottom is 3-4 day combo
GOod Trading
Hello Dear Boris....
I was looking at a chart of the dollar index and my eye seems to see that the index has penetrated the lower channel of its recent uptrend.
Now maybe it can recover, but it doesn't look like a hot bet at this point.
The prior H&S formation, which seems to be still in play, suggests a target of 68.
If so, the the prior low and its nearby AP should be taken out. This is almost a given.
So, at this point, and if you concur, one would be an idiot to own even a broken nickle.
Holding buckeroos during a flattening type correction is a suckers bet as you lose carry.
I had thought that the buck would gather a sub 1.50 handle but this seems to have become a wet dream for dollar bulls.
So, I guess my question is this....why hold any dollars at all if any dollar rally that may occur will occur from lower levels, not really rallying all that far from here, while losing significant carry from stronger units, which the upcoming rally may not even overcome?
To hold dollars here, it seems to me, not withstanding your cycle work, one must believe that the Fed will support it at some point. That doesn't seem to be in cards...
Your thoughts?
xerxes
Dear Xerxes,
The actions in the market are in the EYE of beholder.
I maybe looking at it form a deifferent perspective than others do.
Technically speaking the Dollar has entered a minibull market in March 2008.
Not much, granted as it was unable to gether any altitude so far.
And Yes there ara targets for USDollar below that stretch all the way down to 40!?
I view the situation as a tradable rally as long as the Low of March holds.
After that, I stated just yesterday... I would become a bottom fisher till the March of 2009 arrives. At that time, I will be looking fo the TOPS only in Dollar.
Now that is neither bullish nor bearish statement. It is what it is, strategy of how to handle the Dollar situation at this time. Carry and one or two percentage point does not interest me at this moment.
I will agree wholeheartedly that for someboyd with a longer term horizon, of 2-3 year Dollar is a suckers game. Never hidden that from my forecast.
My action hinge on my cyclical and fractal analysis, but I never marry any analysis and mine included you know that very well by now.
Nevertheless, DOllar is up 10% against YEN and 6 % against SWISSY and GBP sinse the beginning of the year.
So, this is where we are , are not we.
I enjoy thoroughly these discussions about Dollar and Want the people to understand where am I coming from.
I consider myself a trader, within the bigger scheme of things, being really an investor.
Now that makes me think that If/when I am wrong on my intermediate term cycles , I can jump tho the other side, because I was so, almost precise in my entry exit points that I lose nothing by checking out my thesis to the end.
You this is no different how I approach the Stock market intraday trading.
THose that saw me stage those Intraday trading sessions ( the cna be read again , it is all here)
Know how I operate.
I go in the market and make a trade, with the first thought being do not lose money. Due to my skills of being able not to LOSE money, I can have few trades and lose a little or gain a little all the while being dedicated to my more intermediate term outlook.
Like I said, I lookf for small waves within the big waves. I am a surfer.
Realising not everybody is... I suggest that people read what I see in this context.
I always state long and short.
You are totally right and in power to act on your, very valid beliefs.
Thanks and Good Trading
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