14:10 ET DEAR WALDO, perfect example of what we discussed in your question my answer session. The ESMINI touches low FourthILAP goes back to Low FirstILAP and gets rejected. In fact right at this time it has broken down below third ILAP again and if this i a trending day we could see the big drop here.
14:41 ET, Could this prove an incredible example, of how Dear Waldo and I were discussing a hypothetical market action and Market provided it instantly? are we seeing the selling pressure growing here? Even if it stops here. It provided an example of the bounce of the market between the APs just like good Guitar player would bounce the fingers on the strings...
15:56 ET, Ok EMINI came back down and stopped and reversed at fourth ILAP. Pretty incredible if you ask me, now what this means is ,that you do not really have to know( like I do not) if the 25-26 th is high or low, just play APs and if you are in profit stay with it, as it has a good chance of leading you into whatever 25-26th will do (high/low).
1264 1262 1260 1258 spx 1269 1270 1272 1275
couple slow days here, could put the market in the rollover mode again. In fact, I am now thinking that this may be a high probability outcome. Only a powerful blast through 11500-11600 area on DOW, could carry this market higher.
22 comments:
tomorrow they are selling 20yr TIPS and the 10&20yr Aug.6-7
Usually gives market some extra mojo
some bank info
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Dear Lag,
Thanks again for keeping us updated on these events.
Good luck and trading to you
after looking over many charts it will surprise me if we get much higher here---maybe should have hung onto my position but with all the remodel Im short on time
Lag,
Don't give Marty too much attention. He is generally good over the long-term, but his intermediate and short-term calls have been wrong this year. He told everyone to short the S&P on June 3rd in the 1370's. This was a good entry, although 2 days early.
BUT, he had everyone cover shorts on June 19th (SPX 1340) when the BKX was just under $61. He said that would stop the slide and that the BKX would rally 20%. He was wrong and has since shifted his stance to BKX $44 being the bottom. This is after the BKX has tagged $45 and rallied back to $62. His subscribers lost a lot of money by covering at 1340. And I'm sure he had them all sitting in cash last Tuesday/Wednesday and they are probably still in cash and missed the 700 point Dow rally. I was a subscriber and emailed him telling him he was wrong to cover in June, but he never replied. So, I am no longer a member. Waste of money. Rather spend it all on Boris...
Just my two bitter cents ;)
Dear Blaine,
Thanks for giving me a credit.
I am humbled by all of it and frankly , I do not exactly know, how I was able to overomce ROBOT malfunctioning and keep my composure and having the strength to persist, but, YBR was just such beacon in that I could not ignore and there is information I look at that suggests that even now not all the parameters of the bear have even been approached , let alone exhausted.
Average Stock market(Bear) delcine is 28-32% we did not do that, but if you look at the REAL SPX , ha, it has lost that and more...
So, we are in the area where bear retracments can stop, but being unconvinced I must keep our EYES open to that possibility. Yet for those seeking income and/or having 20year horizon. I can not let them wait for another 5% decline. If it comes let them buy even more. It is good to have stocks YIELD 5%. Not too often you get the entire market approach that.
In any case, I really, really am greatful fo GOD keeping me straight even as some of my tools malfunctioned.
And thanks a lot for your support and turst.
Good Trading Dear Blaine
Boris,
I still believe the robot will get it right again. I expected it to underperform near turning points. But once a new trend gets going, the robot is great and even greater with AP's. I use the weight of evidence to predict turning points more closely.
In the meantime, I have been doing much better with USDJPY and AP's. I made out very well last week buying the quote under 104.
Thanks for all you do. Let's hope a MDS gets back to winning. What was the longest losing streak? I forgot.
Blaine
Dear Blaine,
Robot is just what we tell it and I already have pretty good IDeas how and where it failed, I need some more time ti digest it and not finding it to do daily services, but hope to get some of my burden lifted with automation of APS.
It Just have to put same thoughts that I convey they by day into Mechanical formula, and so far I did not find time to express it easily in "EASYLANGUAGE".
Yes the streak has not been too bad. It is just a single loss of a magnitued of 70 points is first and should not have happened, that is what is bad.
It is much better when you can put something and thinks for you, but it will take some more time, before I am able to build in the all the ideas I was writing in my MDS comments into formulas.
Surprisingly. There will always be room for imporvement.
Thanks Dear blaine.
Good Trading
Hi Boris, I have a question on the ap's, when the q's drop thru a lower ap like a second ap and then it rallys back up does that ap now a resistance point. Hope you can understand what I am trying to say. Thanks, waldo
Dear Waldo,
Yes, Absolutely, but more often, it is not an AP to AP, it is more a drop down several APs ( say to 4th AP) and move up to second or first , if rejected can start avalanche of decline,
In general though you are right. You could probably find those in many AP pictures if you search them on the site.
Good Trading
Dear Waldo,
I am refering here to a TRENDING day when I stated above.
If the day is not trending, then it will , porbably have a very blured picture, mostly confined between the SecondIHAP and SecondILAP or so.
Good Trading
Lag,
The little guys are and have been buying too many puts today and Friday. ISEE=83 today. The moving average is still suggesting a bottom right here, not a top. So, I would expect today's action to be a set-up to drive the market higher, especially with NYSE outperforming (actually positive on the day right now).
Just giving everyone a heads up for possible outcomes. And if the robot says buy tonight, it may have its mojo back and I would follow this market higher. I think the real chance for a significant market drop begins in mid-August...
Blaine
Dear Blaine, It is hard for ROBOTs to generate a buy in one day from where they are today.
So, I am not sure, but this move here worries me. It is following too much god dam scenario I gave to WALDO, which was not even in my mind today. HUH
I hope you are right, and I thought two that a strong decline shoul happen in August, but I would want to be very careful here.
Good Trading
Blaine,
Look closer at the ISEE breakout and you will see that the put buying has been heavy on the index and etf products while the individual equities reading is in the 120's.
Ok, Dear Blaine,
There is probably not much time left for market to tank here.
So, we are out of the danger of tanking today. If you say put buying is strong today, I can understand.
Overall though, PCratio is still not where it makes me bullish.
Good trading
D,
I saw that, but index puts running in the 30's is somewhat low. They had not closed that low since June 20th. It may be nothing.
But I also noticed that the 5-day all securities MA dipped below 100 last week, which historically marked ST bottoms. It got very skewed in Q1'08, but apart from that, it has worked well...
Boris,
I really don't think the markets will tank here. If AAPL blows up, maybe. But I have some information later this week that tells me not to be short (at least in a particular area).
Blaine
Dear Blaine, Readers,
I believe that 25th is an important date, low or high is very likely, so the break out here in either direction will set the course for next 3 days?
Good Trading
Boris,
Looks like down into 25th. AAPL, AXP and SNDK tanked the futures. EURUSD breaking higher AP's and USDJPY breaking lower AP's. Going to be an ugly night...
Tomorrow morning you have WB, which could really send things crashing. Not to mention DD and CAT in the Dow. Rest up, wild ride coming.
Dear Blaine,
I can see the picture.
Does not look too goog.
Good Tradiang
MarketWatch is enumerating 11 reasons America's a new sopitalist economy
Dear Aaaaaaum,
Someboey needs to tell the the right word for what they are talking about.
It is not SOCIALSM, Dear Paul, It is a SOPITALISM.
Good Trading
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