Very important Cluster was hit at the bottom this morning
TRAN 5692
SPX 1234 , learning to count again(:-.
INDU 11051, pretty important number.
RUT/R2K, UTIL,NYA,QQQQ,TRAN never checked the new lows. This dichotomy is a warning until removed
Please watch failure to break these down would indicate things are not as bad as they look.
10:31 ET, DOW hits another cluster point 11025. next is under 11000( HUH), unfortunately, I am not a buyer till the 17 th July passed and then we shall see.
10:38 ET, NYA SPX both at important CLUSTER PIONTS 8325 and 1234
10:40 ET, ok what do we make with RUT showing strength against the INSTITUTIONAL indices DOW/NYA/SPX. TWO WORDS FOR YOU...
FOREIGNERS DUMPING!!!
11:20 ET, most of the cluster is under attack again and NYA, actually gave it up going for the next one at 8306.
Next points are 10999, 1225, 8280 respectively for DOW,SPX,NYA
11:25 ET, 1170 our first Low Target FOr SPX is only 5% away from here, which is , usually on good days worth of work for this index
12:17 ET, Dear Readers, I would like to attract your attentions to the fact that the ANTIDOLLAR leaders OIL and GOLD have tried but could not really HOLD above the SDHAP levels, which is giving some hope for a runaway train of ANTIDOLLAR to have been stopped here, at least for now.
12:56 ET, we are now approaching the FirstDLAP and SDLAP of ES MINI which are between 1126 and 1123( of course at the same place, see UP HERE, there are SILAP and ThirdILAPs), Very important Area, as GOLD and OIL have already reached Respective SDHAPs
14:02 ET, just few minutes ago the QID and QQQQ hit very important CLUSTER support points at 47.27 and 43.90 respectively as the SPX and INDU were hitting there own 10971 and 1225. those are very significant support points
14:48 ET, JPY at FourthIHAP is pushing stocks higher and previous cluster looks like made the support with authority, but the JPY itself looks exhausted at FIHAP.
15:02 ET, YEN is going for FIFTH and so is the SPX going for fourth. GOLD and OIL in retreat.
15:05 ET, YEN fails again at the fourth. Not able to hurdle to the fifth
15:08 ET, There are couple things that help to think of a capitulation being closer. The DOW/RUT ratio is getting stretched out and the TRAN index is
behaving very well.
54 comments:
Dear Klaatu,
ENJOY the wins
Dear Lag, GOOD luck.
GOod Trading
Time to BOOGIE
Dear Boris, Is it getting close to the point where we buy puts on FXE? Remember 1.618?
Dear Waldo,
I hear you( did I get your name right?)
Good Trading
It's aaaaaaum. My name in last post appears in different language. (FXE)
Thanks.
Dear Aaaaaaum So, that is what FXE stands for FOREIGN LANGUAGE(:-
Good Trading Dear A.
Boris,
I think things are much worse in the world than they seem. And they seem pretty bad. Rumors going around that the U.S. economy collapses in September and the U.S. Govt collapses in February. USSR brokedown suddenly, too, as you can attest...
Dear Blaine,
I said before , I must be very important person(VIP) to have lived in two superpowers that have disappeared in the span of 20 years one from another(:-
How nice... I am not an astrolger, but on the surfice , yes a lot looks like that.
One of my first articles on safehaven.com was that... I was predicting that USA will refuse to honor the obligations made to people.
The only thing is that , they probably do not need to wrack USA, for that, JUST Dollar.
Unfortunately till my indicators say , stay with Dollar , I will, when they, something changed to warrant dumping all Dollars I Shall.
Good Trading Dear Blaine
sorry Boris, was not me, I haven't posted since the wine offer. waldo
Dear Waldo,
So, you are mad, for me not taking you up on your offer ha(:-
Love you Dear Waldo.
Dear Aaaaaum admitted he was the GUILTY one(:_
Good Trading
Im a wineo to --LOL
Dear Lag,
Who else would do what you do except WINEO(:-
Good Trading
Boris -
With your track record of destroyed economies after you've lived in a place, PM Olmert should consider relocating you to Iran ASAP to take down the enemy and preserve Israel...
That will take care of them!
LOL
LOL, Boris, do you think we might be at a bottom with all the foreigners dumping, kind've throwing in the towel so to speak. waldo
Dear D,
AMEN!
Good Trading
Dear Waldo,
WHen we you and I last foreighers(:- dump our stocks then it will be over!
Good Trading
good morning everyone and good trading.
Dear Sharon,
Good morning did had a hard time spending all the SHEKELS before the 6% devaluation in day and a half? (:-
I must have known something yesterday when mistakenly announcing SHEKEL lost 6% ( whil at that time it was at 3% loss)
Good Trading
Dear Boris/Blaine,
I guess you have all heard the rumor mill. On Mar.18th there was a
"closed door" session of Congress.This was only the 4th time
in U.S. history that this occurred.
It is forbidden for members of the House to reveal the discussion.But rumors abound. One was that it was a new surveillance technique for Homeland security. But there was others...An Australian newspaper reported that the following was discussed. (1) an imminent collapse of U.S. economy by Sept.2008. (2) Imminent collapse of U.S.
gov't. finances by Feb. 2009 (3) Possible civil war in U.S. due to collapse. There were a few more including merging Canada and Mexico economies and a new currency called the Amero.
I am very reluctant to repeat rumors like this(prefer your mathematcical models Boris), but the dates are the same and I was wondering if this is where it came from.
Good trading,
Klaatu
Dear Boris,
Thanks for the updates. If my math is correct, 1170 is still almost 5% away:). Maybe not for long though?
Good trading.
Bert
dear boris
stop pretending. you are ficher's best friend :-)
sharon
Dear Klaatu,
Thanks, It does not take even 1/2 degenerate of me to understand that USA was/is on unsustainable path of financial affairs.
I would not be a bit surprised to learn that these issues were discussed. Perhaps even as matter of facts...
I can not make too much of it, because I have already stated , long while ago, that this is where we are headed.
We have created the BEST GOVERNMENT money can buy and we payed for it all along. Some of us worked honestly within the system and some of us not.
Even thouse that worked honestly within it did not realise that they were milking a cow that was running out of milk so to speak.
Where have you seen the Teachers retiring on guaranteed pensions of over $150,000.00 a year. Only in USA( corrrrrrupt carrrrrrifornia). Only the UNINONS could do that. So, everybody stole the way they could and Govermenet , instead of correcting the bad things, decided . Hey Titanic is here. "You will only find what you steal" Let us do it. You see that is totally Diamertically opposed to the principle this site is based on.. "you will only find what you give" principle right.
So, you had the Parachutes open on Devalued Dollar. Jim GRASSO, Sandy WHile, Evne Dear Paulsen got the parchutes ( for joining the TITANIC and leaving the Goldman).
I am not even talking people that became GIGABILIONNERS on Depereciated Dollar, because it is there and AMERICAN SENIORS are happy enough to be bribed with the MEDICARE supplement bill( G W BUSH) gave to them. So, they probably feel, "wow we are getting sometning here let us not rock the boat". Frankly many of them are ill and they prefer to have the cheap(ha..) medicine now than the SOCIAL security payments later. I am so disgusted to even recount all of this. It just destroys my human fabric, every time I think how naive/stupid the SENIOR population is to let the GOVERNMENT get away with the theft. So, the SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS came around and stole to no end via , INSURANCE rackets, benefits rackets, and FOREIGN AID and DEFENCE Appropriations and BRIDGES nowhere adn on and on it goes ( and by the way stimulus checks to dead people(:- ).
It really makes me sick to think that in the entire world, nobody addresses the issue of this theft by government from retirees.
But I am going to stop for now and let others speak.
Good Trading
Dear bert,
Thanks a lot.
I stand corrected. HUH, computer brain misses a simple calculations... That is a sign of things to come?(:-
Yes 5% away, of course.
Good Trading Dear Bert
Dear Sharon,
You want to say hello to him,
He is right here(:-
Good Trading
dear Boris
thank him for giving some hope to the hi-tech comapnies in Israel
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
I am not sure it is possible to help any more, But I will take credit if it does(:-
Good Trading
Dear Boris, (and Klaatu too)
Since you lived through the USSR collapse, what did you do to survive? If US collapses in September-February timeframe, what should I be doing now to prepare? Should I be liquidating all assets and transferring money to a Swiss Bank in the form of gold or francs? Because if all US banks go insolvent and Fed Govt goes insolvent, my money is gone even if I am short stocks and make $1M. Counterparties die and I'm broke. I can't afford to quit my job and leave the country. Should I be buying guns, ammo, canned food, water, batteries, fuel, etc???
I'm seriously scared. And I've talked to a lot of smart people this week who feel the same way. Boris, what do I do to avoid being put into a Rex 84 concentration camp?
Dera Boris/Blaine
I echo the same same sentiments.
Worried about bank "holidays" and capital controls.
Went short bonds and short Brit.Pd.
Good trading,
Klaatu
Dear Blaine,
Do not really need to take to the extreme.
for one. We always said that the core GOLD/OIL holdings has to be there under any circumstances. You can not have OIL reservuar, but you can have the OIL futures bought if you want to ( i know the small denominations would be better), but buying the stocks of companies that have the OIL is a better way ( even if it is a Canadian OIL and GOLD companies). GOLD you can own some outright and some in the form of CANADA CENTRAL fund , I think has the GOLD in CANADA. Your best foreign destination is probably CANADA.
Now , I do not anticipate the kind of a financial collapse, where nobody knows who owns what. I think that is not possible in USA. The country is too automated and records are well kept and you can always take the delivery of certificates.
Considering the real estate is cheaper than it was you may want to consider some inexpensive real estate in country place where you can have a little AGRI going if you ever need it. This can be done with freinds that think the same way. Nothing wrong with that in good times or bad.
I think America will function, but with a broken Dollar, which eventually will be good. See what happened to RUBLE from 1998 it rose from 30 or something to 6 or something. If BRasil recovered and Russia recovered , USA will recover. Do not be afraid of crisis. Just be prepared for it. You see How ABRAMOVICH became BILLIONER from pennyless streat merchant... Yes, that will probably not happen in USA( too sophisticated)but if you see the crisis as opportunity it will be good for you, instead of running aways from it.
To make sure your purhcasing power does not go ZERO keep some money in hard assets as I said ( that includes GOLD,OIL mosttly stocks and some phisical and land).
Dear Blaine,
I do not think the companies like EXXON and CHEVRON are going to die. So, you can buy stocks from the COmpanies directly as well. USSR did not die, it transformed. It does not hurt to keep some part of your money in GOLD coins, but do not go over board. I always said that moderation will dicated that you hold 15% core hard assets at all times and add to it another 15-20% if you feel the end of the world is coming.
I do not think the end of the world is coming. I do not even think the end of USA is coming, but who knows. In any case, if you have relatives in foreigh countries it maybe not a bad idea to get to know them again(:-
The other side of the coin could be to look at the bigger cities as well, with part of your money. As the ownership is harder to fudge in the big cities than in outskirts with less bystanders. So, if you have a property, nobody will take it away from you. Unless they kill entire Block(:-
Frankly Dear Blaine, I think USA will prosper enentually worst it gets initially. Look at ASIA contagon... those countries were all dead right? Well where are they now. They give us loans(:-
In 8-9 year cycles things change and Yes, while it could be a bit rough for few Years, I think 2012-14 is when USA will trough and become competitive again.
Look if we could only spend 10th of the money we spend in IRAQ on developing OIL shale, we could be on our way of being SAUDI ARABIA.
If we could only allow NUCLEAR electricity generation (CLEANEST ENERGY thERE IS) we could be independent today. The fact that we do not do it is deliberate in some sense ( will not go into all motivations and actors again here) America has a lot going for it. IT will kill few SENIROS( that is what happend in USSR) and there will be no SOCIAL SECURITY and MEDICARE problems ( RUSSIA does not have it any more(:- ). Please, please, GOD FORGIVE me for this thought, but that is what happened. Eventually weakest in the society lose, because they have no power to fight. Many In RUssia(SENIORS) dief quetley from starvation. Societies have brutal ways of cleansing themselves, while the young and hustling make become NEW RICH, like ABRAMOVISHES of the world.
AMERICA is not exactly like RUSSIA, but there are similarities. One thing I think is more difficult todo is to fudge the ownerships and transfer BILLIONS like ABRAMOVICH did in RUSSIA, but you never know. You need to be ready for anyghing. If you do not want to have any property that is fine too.
I am not going to discuss all the things you can do. Hope that you get the ideas and directions to look into.
I personnaly have a lot at stake in STATES, in fact large majority of my holdings are in USA and I have not yet started to run to hills.
I suggest you make your choices wisely
Good Trading
Good Luck Dear Klaatu,
Have a nice weekend
Good Trading
Boris, do you think this was the capulation day everyone was waiting on. I have some call options and wondering if I should hold over the weekend. Thanks, waldo
Dear Waldo, Only in hindsight will we know if it was. I am not sure that it is. You know that It would have been easiery for me to talk about capitulation if we hit the 1170 level , if the volume was huge, if the PCRATIO was UP there... on the graph.
Asset graph thinks thogh that we are awful close. YOu know that Awful close could mean another 50-100 Points down on SPX
GOod Trading
Tank time?????
Dear Lag,
Yes, It would not look pretty if the new lows are printed this late in the game.
Good Trading
Dear Boris,
Thanks for your insights.My Dad always said: "Never sell America short."
Bless you my friend and have a great weekend.
Klaatu
Dear Klaatu,
YOu have a good weekend too. I can not thank you enough for your active participation and more so your thoughtful participation.
My Dear friend and in your face all the readers and subscribers of this site. Please please, enjoy your weekend and think of the opportunities even in the crises. That is the only way to be. When we look for things we find them...
Let us look for all the good things nature can throw our way. Thanks a lot for bing with us on this exciting weekend, which , In my opinion is getting us closer to a local, at least , low in the markets. Next week will be even more exciting and OUR star Julie should recover a bit from her sudden cold. She still loves you, she says(:-
Good Trading All
Boris,
Have a good weekend yourself, did ok again today.
old john
Hi Boris,
Bottom fished a stock today as an investor.
Dear John,
So, you found time to be in the market today(:-
Good weekend and
Good Trading My Dear Friend.
Dear Hopper,
I have been doing that for couple days myself. But kind of stocks that can pay me while Things may or may not work.
Have A nice weekend My Deaer Friend
Good Trading
Dear Boris,
Have a great weekend.
I look forward to meeting back here Sunday night:)!
Thank you dear fellow.
Bert
Dear Bert,
ALl the best to you and all FRIENDS in CANADA
Good Trading
Boris,
I found time , just quiet.
old john
Dear all
Yesterday I had Poker holdem night with my friends, pretty the same of what you did in the stock market, a lot of bluffs . I have just read the apocalyptic vision discussed here and I want to add some comments to the debate:
1. The American consumer ate more than he can chew, took a huge mortgage for a house he can't afford, bought (with 100% loan) a SUV (1GL for 4Miles) he doesn’t really need, and filled his home with a tons of Chinese junk. Now when he has to pay the bill to the greedy bankers for his fake lifestyle he collapses. I tell him, pay for being irresponable and greedy and for your kids sake please change and be modest again.
2. The latest fundamentals are good in spite of the terrible credit situation, GDP slowly increasing and export is in all time record, so it takes more than a year (or decade) for this efficient production and research system to collapse.
3. Proportions please, the 70's were worse and America still got here, doesn’t it?
4. When bush retires from the white house (very rich oil man I must admit) a new hope for a change will arise (Nikson/Ford, anyone?) and the trend might flips faster then we can predict.
Have a nice a quiet weekend dear friends
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
Thanks a lot for your injection of some badly needed optimism into our discussion. I do not lack optimism myself, but I am trying not to be delusional. That is never good for anybody.
Yes the problems will be solved, but they may take a lot of time...
5-8 years would not surprise me, but I alos predict that in 2008 The Dollar will be the strongst currency in the WORLD(:-
See you then
Good Trading
Sorry Dear Readers,
I just can not get it ever right. I mean 2018 , THe Year of 2018 not 2008(:-
GOod Trading
Hi Boris,
is ANTIDOLLAR still according to your plan/expectations? If gold goes to 1000+, will USD index make new lows?
Thanks, Ivan
dear Boris
I cant wait for 2018 , shekel is too strong right now.
by the way, if the IndyMac story published market after-hour we are set to for additional crash this monday and it looks like GLD chosed the alternate route (based on your prediction).
thanks
Sharon
Hi Sharon,
if we look at Boris' SEEFUTURE chart, I think, if ANTIDOLLAR doesn't make new highs next week, we are still in primary route.
Regards, Ivan
Dear Ivan,
You are correct, NExt week is dicisive week.
Now remember GOLD and Dollar Have been to go together , Ocasionally, but that is more at times. So , I would not worry about the GOLD even going to new highs. In fact, I would not worry too much even IF Dollar makes new lows( I would trade it technically on the next sign of the low, though).
I do not for a minute believe that EURO block can last with the 1.60+ DOllars/EUro for long. Their economy will falter if it has not already. But you know, do not get me started, CENTRAL Bankers often have conflicting interest with people they serve ( sorry).
Yes, Dear Ivan and Sharon.
I think next week is avery important week and chances of spiking down to 1170-1160 area are very real. But I expect bounce after that.
Now the entire process is not for a day or two or year ot two. This situation in USA is going to be a long time to come.
That is why I suggest to people that they try to accumulate the quality High Yield stocks slowly, but surely at each stage of it.
Here is what I would tell a completely passive investor. Devide your Stock Allocation money in 48 portions and invest each one per month in Quality stocks( for next 4 years!). If you do not know what they are then just invest it in DOW. What could be simpler.
Why bother. Of course one can improve that by bying more on MDS buy signlas with oversold conditions (like March, Like Now) etc.
But that is the simplest thing to do. Keep the income coming. Stocks , Meanwhile will come back, if not for you then for your children(:-
Income is important though. Remember we are addressing a lot of people in retirement or approaching it ( approaching the thinking of it) here(:-
Good Trading
dear boris
when you are talking on a high yield stock you are probabaly talking about dividends, If I invest in dow etf will I get these dividends as well?
now, since our work assumption is low in september why to bother and buy now? most of the stocks prices in march low are cheaper today and probably (not sure) will be cheaper a month from now.
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
As smart as we think we are, all we can do is make assumptions and assumptions may not work out exactly the way we think and we lose the "OPPORTUNITY COST" if we miss. Not only we would miss the GOOD YIELD, we could miss the GOOD PRICES as well.
That is, for "NOT GODS" ( primarily me(:- ) I suggest the DOLLAR COST averaging of the kind I described.
Would you like an example?
Sure, we make the projections about GOLD and you would like to wait to accumulate "assumption" being...
Ok if the alternate route happens, all our assumptions are just that and we can not return the situation back where it was, for a long time.
That is why a blind COST AVERAGING works because it will pick up the valeys and peaks. Of course THE MDS buy signals can give a better results.
But, Yes, we could all miss, at least I could by a (S)MILE(:-
Good Trading
Dear Boris
I am totaly agree with your approach. I just dont want to catch a falling knife. right now, the odds for down are bigger than up. at least from my point of view. if next week will not be a big catastrophe I am intending to start buying some big compaines stock.
thank you boris for all the help and support.
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
I am not taking of waiting the day or the two, that could be left to discretion somewhat, but no procrastination is allowed. One must complete the purchases on some schedule and make it automatic , well removes our own imperfection out of the way.
Now I forgot
DIA will give you 2% yield
DVY will give you 4.25% yield
DOW itself is around 4% average YIELD I think.
Good Trading
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