Dear Reader,
Please go to protected site for Intraday Attraction Points. We will try, but it could be difficult to get the BULK email in Overloaded networks. In light of the discussion we had today.
Please note the article on this blog. If you are not using those principles, then you are doing something wrong and please discuss with me, what you would like to accomplish with the help of this site.
clickme->How Do You Use This Site
This article , mainly teaches that one can not be in the markets and play the game of a "one finger piano player". Sorry it matters none, how good ones "ONE FINGER" is, it will not make a nice music. Music is good only when the harmony comes with it and that can not be done with one finger or even one person or one instrument. This article teaches that different goals require different tools from this site and other sites. In short this article teaches that it takes time and effort to make "good music". he same is true with trading. There are no shortcuts. I stated often that when the COMPLEXITY of trading decisions is understood the simplicity of the trading will become possible not until then.
14:42 ET, as we have been discussing the philosophical issues of trading here comes the market and it is back up and/or unchanged mostly and MDS is actually in draw in last two trades, having made 42 or so points in previous trade and being down about that much now, before even closing the trade... Now, lot of highly payed money mangers would like to be in that position.
53 comments:
was stopped out of QLD yesterday for 1 1/2% loss--was gone
-
Dear Lag
I promised myself to go with the Robot this time. everytime I doubt it I was punish. so yes I still hold some QLDs (-4% as of now).
Sharon
Emails got off ok,
Protected site also populated
ENJOY the Intraday.
No, CHECKLIST, but summary is here in this post
Good Trading
Boris and all---
It sure looks like by the string of my trin #'s we are setting up for a big fall in a couple days if we maintain these low trin #.
Be careful as this looks very dangerous here on any upmove or flat
Dear Lag,
I agree, With you, just hope that we get enough for ROBOTS to generate SELL
Good Trading
Lag,
I hear you, but total put/call is spiking to 1.48 right now. A lot of conflicting signals out there.
Blaine
Dear Blaine,
At the real bottom, there is now/almost no conflicting signs
Maybe on retest.
Good Trading
Boris
If the dollar doesn't make a strong turn to the upside today or tomorrow, it could be in trouble. The ECB could raise interest rates Thursday which will really cause the dollar problems.
What's your take Boris?
Robert
Dear Robert,
I must follow what the patterns say and according to them, Dollar could be "POTENTIALLY" in trouble all the way into MID month. But when I look at the Dollar on ints own merit. It could go through that period a bit in trouble but unbowed at the end. We shall see.
The question is what are the RED lines, Well, how about new lows In Dollar index, that could indicate a read line. We are not very far from there, either.
Remember, our outlook included the good days for ANTIDOLLAR into this period. What we do not and did not expect the new lows in the Dollar Index.
So, let us watch and see how we do. Of course, that is harder if one holds large dollar positions. Then the short term trading methods must be used to navigate a possible drop of the Dollar below the lows of March.
As long as did not break that low the counts look promising.
GOod Trading
Dear Readers,
Dear Robert,
One more clue into Dollar could be found in GOLD.
GOld cash, has the resistacne around 948 and 962 first being the ABC ( equidistant move up) and just above 50% of the correction from March high to May low. And the other 61% correction of the same.
If these hold. I do not see much of a chance for Dollar new lows here.
And time is close for all this to wrap up. Maybe even closer than many think...
You have the dates by looking at the GOLDPROJECTIONS
Good Trading
Just bought some QID---lets see if they get me in trouble
Dear Lag,
I am still waiting for the Buy Pressure to go very high and that will probabily need another spike lower here soon. Or maybe not...
I would only know tomorrow morning
Good Trading
MDS is starting to really suck.
sold 40% of QID position--
czman - faith please :-)
Der Czman
If you are using MDS blindly and not applying any of your judgement then you , My guess, understand that the systems can underperform at some points in their existance and this underperformance is still very small even by its owns standards. So for somebody that follows the system blindly this statement of yours is not in place, because you should know to let the system work within its parameters and not judge it as harshly as you do.
I will reitterate and you should observe that there are spots in MDSs life when it performed much worse, but that did not disturb it from doing very well over time.
Now, perhaps, if you think that system is not perfroming, then you should use your own judgement or listen to what others do here and make adjustments.
Frankly, while , I agree that MDS did not perform too well lately, I see nothing that tells me to even think abandoning it.
MDS is just a system that in time can be enhanced with the same judgements that we apply here. For example, I could call MDS the combination of some weights of PCRATIO indicators and MDS itself and it will probably have less jugged performance.
Remember, we know what MDS is, it is an early warning system, that happens to make money and lots of it.
IF you want to use it as an early warning system and combine it with other things you should be in a good position, waiting to buy.
If you want to used it blindly then please do so and live with the fact that it will underpefrom at times couple months in a raw.
So, I do not know the purpose of your outburst, but I think it would be better if you just think what is wrong with your own usage of toosl rather than the tools themselves.
Even the stradivarius will sound pretty bad in the hands of novice player. I think you should reconsider how you use the MDS and it will serve you better.
Good Trading
czman
(MDS is starting to really suck.)
Thats cause someone is blowing the other end---LOL--just joking of course
Dear Boris, in one of my accts I have doubled it by using the mds along with other indicators so you are absolutely right, it must be used with other things out there and you have been warning us not to trust the mds because your other indicators were not in sink with it. Waldo
Dear Boris
the BKX in 56? It looks like a panic and not a fair value, is banking situation so bad, justify prices like that. some of the banks in the index have a strong global presence, which make me wonder about the world economic growth.
Is this an oppurtunity ?
Sharon
Dear Czman, With all the respect to your state of mind... Nobody wants to lose...
I bet you that over any portion of time in last 2 years... MDS perhaps did better than 99% of all funds managing money.
Now last two months have been bad, granted, but even then MDS is doing better than market aggregates are...
That is pretty amazing when you think about it.
I am of the opinion that it will reassert itself and do even better.
If it continues to not perform though, I will be the first to say that time has come to take a good look at what is wrong with it.
And what is that, that would cause me to seriously question underpinnings of MDS...
Well, for one, I would say that new lows( in performance) that span over 4-6 months would alert me... If only because this is not characterstics I have seen in the system before.
I constantly look into it any way and that is the reason I constantly issue the judgements that keep us better protected from MDS's gyrations, but I still do it within the framework of the MDS itself.
I constantly look at its own patterns that tell me how it did in the past and compare current pattern.
That is what kept me warning everybody to be careful and state all along that I was not buying this MDS BUY signal.
So, You see, systems speak to us even when they do not perform, becuase they have past to compare to future and make judgements.
Wihtout that we must adopt some other system of beliefs and I would rather have MDS as a system of beliefs than anything else.
Ok, I do think that this discussion here is helpful to all of us, in therm of setting the expectations correctly as to how to use the tools and when to use the judgements.
For that it probably served a good purpose.
Good Trading
Boris sold MDS at its peak...
That's what they get for doing business with a trader!
hahahaha
Dear Waldo,
thanks a lot.
I respect Dear Czman,
He came across as a very thoughtful person at the beginning and now he seems to be a bit out of the character.
May be he will find a more opportune time to tell us, why...
Besides the fact known to all of us that MDS was not performing and as you indicated, I constantly warned about that possibility.
I remain respectful for Dear Czman.
I hope he comes back with some more detail that we can all hang on and analyse for our own future benefit.
Thanks Dear Waldo
Thank you Dear Czman.
Dear D,
I hope to prove you wrong.
I mean that MDS was not sold at the PEAK and better peaks are coming. Perhaps not as meteoric performance as in the past.
But between us I hope that a more manageable curve of 20-30% a year will emerge eventually...
We shall see.
It could be that the PEAK of 100% performance each of the 6 months preceeding MAY maybe will never repeat. But what would be wrong with a 5% a month on average or 3% a month on average.
I am hopeful that we will return to better curve.
Besides that. I think that we all will be missing the real purpose of the system( MDS or any other). It is lie a compass...
But can a compass tell that the norhtward direction , taken directly, leads through the lake full of snakes? No...
Neither can the trading system. System tend to look over the spaces and it is Traders own job to worry about the details.
Good Trading Dear D
Boris and all
Gold seems to be hanging in there at 942-943 range. The spot high was 946.40. For the last 7 hours or so it tried to break the 946 high but failed.
So possibly for the dollar at least, this could be a good sign as you suggest Boris. But then, the dollar has struggled several times with a low around 72.5.
Surely, tomorrow will be a crucial date which could turn some of this stuff around.
Robert
Dear Boris
Please do not appologize for giving us a compass. trading is not simple and whoever thought it should provides him easy profits is not honest with himself.
system should prove itself in the long run and not in specific trade.
I always see this kind of situations in my IT life. it is easy to blame the machine than take responibility of your actions.
Sharon
Dear Robert,
Dollar has struggled today, but it is still working on an inside day. Not bad if it manages to stay there today.
And Gold has , as indicated before encountered the real resistance at the 100% of ABC move up.
So, it could be that we are getting the wall erected for ANTIDOLLAR, but there is , unfortunately time left, as you have the dates for the ANTIDOLLAR top.
Yes, I would hope that the inside day, if that is what end up being today , has a break on the upside tomorrow.
That would be a good techincal sign Indeed.
Good Trading
Boris,
Are you maintaining the "Stock system stat"?
Hey everyone, Boris did warn us about the current MDS setting being on shaky grounds. I lost money as well, but it was because I did not set the proper stop loss. I got greedy and set the stop below my tolerance level. And lost more that I really wanted. But, that's my fault. Lesson learned, as Boris says, set your stops and loose only what is in your tolerance zone.
Boris,
My turn- you know what I will say.
1. stay small and stay in business
2. there will be another bus
old john
Dear Sharon,
Thanks a lot,
I, Frnakly hope, very much that Dear Czman will say more than what he said. Because, while in the short space of time the statement is correct it was, unfortunately, stated provocatively.
Well, I still think that every subscriber is worth all the time it takes me to give them all I know and can transfer and if it takes many more lessons like this for all of us to learn, it could, actually be serving the purpose.
I was hopeing that Dear Czman would , at least , acknowledge my dedication for keeping the subscribers out of trouble and updating as often as I can, what I think and do, so that they can feed from that.
I hope he reconsiders his predicament and comes back to talk to us to clear air.
Again thanks to all subscribers and readers.
I do not think anybody should hide anyghing they have on their mind.
I am here all the time to discuss whatever bothers readers and subscribers. I have done this free for people for 2.5 year now and I am certainly willing to devote time to a subscriber if something does not look right to him/her.
I hope that I deserve that much credit by my total dedication to our subscribers.
Did people every try accessing people at other outfits, even if you pay them 10 times as much as for much inferior service. I think not... Becuase I know how industry works.
Ok, That is fine. It goes with the job. This is my calling and my desire and my way to be!
Good Trading
Good Trading
Dear John
love your attitude :-)
Godd luck
Sharon
Dear Bob thanks a lot
I appreciate. I am glad that some people, at least, notice that I am here and I do not just tell you
"set it and forget it"
That is not my style. I care about peoples money more than I care about mine. I really have no obligation taken to be here and ready , practically 24 hours on call. That is my choice, because I care. I want to be here when subscriber wants to talk. To curse me to ask for guidence. Or just listen and know that I am thinkng all the time and looking over the markets to protect their capital.
Thank you for niticing Dear Bob.
I hope everybody does that. Then we would have no losses.
I have no loss. I follow my own thinking. I just said "I DO NOT BUY THIS BUY SINGAL FROM ROBOT". How many times...
I guess some people, would rather went themselves.
So be it. As I said I am here for good or bad.
Good Trading
Dear John,
Thank you .
What can I say.
You probably remember better what I said than I do.
So... I will shut up(:-
GOod Trading Dear John
Dear John,
Thank you .
What can I say.
You probably remember better what I said than I do.
So... I will shut up(:-
GOod Trading Dear John
No reason to defend MDS, it is a system and they all fail or the returns diminish eventually. Boris was wise to take the chips when they were offered to him.
Boris, I hope you distinguish between MDS "peak" and "failure"...I said peak.
:)
Boris,
BKX hit 56.43 this morning. The 1998 low was 54.57 ... I have to believe that some kind of meaningful bounce is directly in front of us, even if it fails after 7-11 days and we retest again or go lower.
And did you sell only the SPX MDS? Or the NAZ MDS, too?
Thanks as always,
Blaine
Dear D,
I do.
I said many times often, I could not beilive my good luck that System, any system could produce 100% a month across 5 months in a row and even the 1100% still taken of of the market in 21 months.
I still do not belive.
And You know, that is why I am not a BILLIONER or even MILLIONER.
I understood what you say Dear D.
I am first to tell you that is very hard to come back to..
Good Trading
Dear Blaine,
BKX now has chllenges at
54
45
34
YES... depending which month the BKX makes the lows it could reach one of those points.
Good Trading
By watching the intraday ap's and knowing this market is oversold and nothing goes down forever I bought 20 calls on the q's just above the 5th ap and sold making 500 today, so I say thank you very much Dear Boris for teaching me patience. waldo
Buy TWM @ 79.49
Dear Waldo,
ENJOY.
I hope the winning lasts.
Only patient wins in these markets.
Nothing else.
In fact the markets are almost unchanged on the day, which is and indication that we may get a huge one day up, as a bear market rally , any time soon. And if do not, Yes, the stop is your final medicine. Nothing else.
Your lifespan as a trader will be measured by the size of the risks you take.
GOod Trading
Boris,
Regarding monthly 100% returns of MDS...
A fund of funds manager likely wouldn't even look at a strategy if it posted those kinds of returns simply because they wouldn't believe them. Returns like that are usually generated via options and excessive leverages. We of course know better...
Dear D,
You know me.
I have stated on these pages.
I could not believe any of what this system was producing.
I still can not understand how it was/is possible, but it is there and staring at me and I can give you code and and data and you can see that you will generate the same results.
Actually the code is so simple in easilanguage that even none progremmer can write it...
Here it goes
========================start code
average=o2+h2+l2 ( three components of MDS ( as you see in the pictures I send)
if av[1] > av[0] then buy this bar on close
if av[1] < av[1] then sell this bar on close
========================= end code
Cna you belive this code above!
Yeah, nobody can. The secret is in the data. These are the data collected from the internals of the market. and the data is presented as the oPEN of data2 (o2) and hIGH of data2 (h2) and lOW of data2 (l2)
Can you imagine the simplicity of this....
I never thought this could produce what it did. But I knew it had the meaning, because I was publishing the pressure figures many months before I started publishing the MDS ( automated pressure into system)
That all she wrote on that subject...
Good Trading
It's like having a box of nails, hammer, saw, and some wood...basic stuff, but somehow a structure emerges from the detailed elevations.
It doesn't surprise me though if it is an overlay of your other work.
As usual , I can not manage two lines of code without error.
So, below the corrected code
========================start code
average=o2+h2+l2
if av[1] > av[0] then buy this bar on close
if av[1] < av[0] then sell this bar on close
========================= end code
Will fourth of July will be happy or gloomy to the stock markets?
Ok, I know you get it Dear Readers, but for completeness here is another( final(:- ) version that should work.
As usual , I can not manage two lines of code without error.
So, below the corrected code
========================start code
var: av(0);
av=average(o2+h2+l2,3);
if av[1] > av[0] then buy this bar on close
if av[1] < av[0] then sell this bar on close
========================= end code
Dear Sharon,
I will be better position to answer that question tomorrow.
SO, I will wait.
Good Trading
Dear Boris
be carefull, microsoft is on the NET as well :-)
Sharon
Thanx Boris
I will tell you next week if you've been right :-)
Sharon
Dear Sharon, if you mean to be careful of the code...
The code is worthless.
It is the data that makes it work.
Good Trading
bought TWM
dear boris
i assume there is an error on the email title about ths NAZ status.
Sharon
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