Not Yet, anyway...
So, the build up in the political arena, has not translated into Monday crash. Ok, So, if GOLD does not break out hard today and falls a bit back tomorrow, for couple days, like GOLDPROJECTIONS shows, then we are still in a reasonable up moving curve in the ANTIDOLLAR, but not in the Rocket?
Turn up in Dollar within next 5 trading days would confirm the long/long anticipated pattern of rising Dollar into September. MDS being into day 6 of BUY suggests then, that we have a bounce of sorts coming, almost regardless of the PCratio being against big bounce. My own actions in the market are as follows: I am ready to buy at the convenient points APs , Exhaustion low moves within 5 minute intervals etc, in the hopes that Crash has been averted but will be very quick in cutting loses and/or taking quick profits as the total picture is still muddied. Day is still young and anything can happen.
Now, for a minute, let us put a FUNDAMENTALIST HAT and review the world in that light(HUH). Money supply at various levels seems to be not growing at the levels they were even few months ago. C&I loans were very strong last year now even those are subdued. Mortgage and Government Borrowing in total is still growing at 15% so, that is supportive for stocks, as far as it goes. FED base is growing lethargically( around 1%) even as other innovative ways of liquification is going on. If World holdings of Federal+Mortgage debt was to take a sudden dive, then we could have all out "REDUCTION" in monetary growth support for stocks and could go much lower, which in turn could support Dollar Immediately. So, you see, REST ASSURED, that this technical trader, always has the "back" EYE on the fundamentals driving the markets. Right now CENTRAL bankers seem to be serious about slowing the the world down a bit. Profits are falling (exception is OIL industry) and the unemployment may need to grow, till it, eventually, shows up as an "improvement" in the profitability of the S&P.
FOR AN INVESTOR, PLEASE CONTINUE ADDING TO YOUR QUALITY STOCK AS YOU ARE INVESTING FOR A LONGER TERM Dow YIELD now is 3.5 not bad.
2 comments:
Dear Boris
this Euro strength is the mother of all BS !
Europe will sink soon. the european are so conservative, higer inflation makes them saving.
the huge transportation manufacturers like airbus, bmw and mercedes will take their export to new lows.
If Euro is not a speculation , what is ?
sharon
Dear Sharon,
EURO is the speculation and the MACHO man knows that, but that is the world works.
Marry go round!
I would be careful thogh, I think EURO has good 2-2.5 years left including the correction.
Good Trading
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