Intraday added to protected site
1319 1317 1319 1310 spx 1328 1330 1333 1337
10:23 ET, we got little bit of a good news on the home sales in USA, but the markets are really waiting for FED interest rate decision 14:15 ET. I happen to think that it could be MILDLY negative
14:22 ET, Ok we got a bit push up on the market, most of which... ANTIDOLLAR, OIL is back to losing a bit and GOLD pulled up from lows too. This all proves that the ANTIDOLLAR and DOLLAR and all the BS in the markets will walk the narrow line as the Powers want it at this time. Very nice show of force to hold 100 Trillion Dollar Speculators scratching their heads. Anybody and everybody that take position seems to see market turn against and pro every day. Does somebody love this?
14:39 et, Yes, and the chief ANTIDOLLAR ( Stok Market) is rallying a bit more, while the Dollar is MILDLY lower.
15:09 ET, I knew the days of MAN(myself) triumphing over machine(BEAST) was coming to close and perhaps today it is closed(:- to neutral to Dollar for
next few days.
10:25 ET, based on the position of our beasts, we would be on the long side at this time. Unfortunately our total weight of evidence is, close but, not so kind to the long side. So, we watch. Please note, that we did make the statement of 25 Jul +-1 trading days to signal some sort of a turn date. So, we are proven correct but not in the market. No problem, if our caution is not rewarded, that would not be the first time the beast has made us humble(:-
Dear Readers we place this CHECKLIST ( WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE, we call it), which was guiding us today. I am sure, that once you look at this, it will become much easier, to refer to the things Dear LAG, SHARON, JOHN, HOWARD, John S., BLAINE and others were talking about. You see this is what every subscriber gets everyday, in addition to the more details fro some, all the items in this checklist, as well as the possible turn dates. This forms the mental positioning of a trader before the trading day starts. Read this CHECKLIST and reread some of the comments and you will see a lot more sense behind the moves trades ( SHARON, LAG, JOHN) reported today. I just hope it helps. Because it is not so cheap to operate all that is on this site, we are not able to provide this checklist and info behind it free. If you are serious about TRADING/INVESTMENT though, consider some of our services and you will be going into trades having the same kind of WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE.
Reading this you SEE much better, what John means when he says, he looked to trade locally. John knew that while the pressure to buy was growing, not everything was pointing higher. Thus he, usual , careful self, convinced himself early on... "I will try to make my few bucks and I do not want to push my luck today, by going stronger or longer than I need to". You can see how nicely Johns mental preparation played out in the market. Thank you John.
Besides providing, often unique, information, we pride in providing coaching, so that you can do it yourself, with the help of whatever completes you weight of evidence. We do not have a lock on that. You may have things that are just as valid/valuable to consider. But we do teach how to think about the markets and give a consistent view day by day to keep trader straight and narrow. FOCUS , conserves traders mental powers and without the weight of evidence , there just is not enough of it to keep HUMANS/traders straight and narrow.
56 comments:
ISEE spitin out some hudge #
P/C ratio fairly low
Trin #'s low
all this equals a down move coming unless its diff. this time
Dear Lag,
Thanks for updates.
Good Trading
sold DUG 28.53 vs 27.7--dont trust this oil
Dear Lag,
Three have been a lot of going nowhere in the market lately( especially in ANTIDOLLAR)
That was expected in my flatrlining outlook few weeks ago.
It seems like it could continue for few more days and then the resolution is expected early JULY.
Good Trading
Oil at 133,1. It looks like gold at monday.
Howard
Dear howard,
Until somtehing breaks, We are in the FLATLINING predicted few weeks ago and I am not changing my mind on that.
When the events prove that the FLATLINING ended, we will go with it. Or act just before it. We could be coming close.
Good Trading
Lag,
Completely agree with you. I don't see how the market can rally with ISEE at 230 and P/C at .75 - both are screaming tops.
I wonder if this is how a crash starts? Get everybody going the wrong way, have the Fed say the wrong thing, then down hard?
Boris
sometimes I dont thank you for you responces but here is a big THANKS
Blaine
Im thinking a big whip or two then down
Blaine
I have never saw the All Indices & ETFs Only this high for so many hours--very strange as that one runs in the 40-80 range or so-not over 200
going over the RUN of trin #'s--the last time we were here was at the top in the beginning of June and middle of May at the highs
Dear Lag,
I am the host.
It is up to me to be the thankful
of our being our guest(:-
That should not disturb anybody to act as host, Truly, we are all host/family here!
Good Trading
Dear Readers,
Blaine, Lag,
It is possible that 13:30 was the top for today. It had that quality and for now looks like it may have been, but this is a day to be ready for anything
Good Trading
Lag,
I'm mining the data and the indices/ETF has been above 200 on a closing basis only 3 times:
5/9/06 (IT top, 7.5% decline)
6/26/06 (ST low, 2.4% rally, but LT, market rallied big)
8/31/06 (ST noise, LT market rallied big)
When we get high readings after a sustained rally, I would think #1 is likely. But when we get high readings after prolonged declines, then it is unclear.
Dear all
good evening.
here it comes...
Sharon
-
Dear Readers,
Mostly nothing much another show
of FED spectacle, that was not worth all the wait.
GOod Trading
BORING, BORING !!!
Boris,
MDS is still working. Did the Qs again today, did ok.
thanx
old john
Dear John,
YEs, just getting in and out making local money. Things work great JOHN.
ENJOY.
Good Trading
Dear Sharon
We used the words
FLATLINING
Few weeks ago. If somebody did not know what it meant.
Please take a look(:-
Good Trading
Boris,
Thats me- local money.
stay small and stay in business
another bus is coming
thanx
old john
Boris
You raised the question of a fake in the markets recently.
Several days ago, the Ira Epstein brokers had a recommendation to short the Yen. Soon after the recommendation, Ira's position was stopped out. He called it a fake and a bull trap (evidently by traders). QUickly thereafter, the yen resumed its down turn.
At about 10 AM, NY time, 5 of the currencies making up the dollar index turned down. The dollar spiked up. Within an hour, the turn was over and the euro and canadian were back up. By now probably the pound and franc are up. The yen was still down a little a few minutes ago.
i checked Bloomberg at around 10AM and sure enough there was a story that the fed might raise interest rates. Later this story was dropped by Bloomberg.
As you noted the traders can pull a trick to take out some stops if they want to manipulate the markets a little. And who knows maybe someone pulled something this morning on the dollar and its supporters.
Any comments on this Boris?
Robert
It is so nice to have this stop loss orders :-)
I had a great day today, as always listen to the robot !
Dear Robert,
FOr over month+ I have used the word Flatlining.
Nobody belived it.
Everybody that took the positions and expected large moves , got their heads and empty valets handed to them.
Why bother? The time will come to take a position, when the zigzag should come to an end. It could a bit too early. Just wait 5-10 more trading days.
But if you must , than by all means please do not be shaken out. Just take the god dam short IN POUND and sit there. Just take position sized properly , so that you can hold it. that is all.
The same is true for others JPY/AUD/SWISSY/EURO in that order
AND YES SHEKEL(:- if this is your gig...
GOod Trading
Dear Sharon
Congrats, whatever you did
has worked for you
Good Trading
Dear Robert,
I meant all the words down there in a joking fashion.
Not angry fashion right?
We are never angry here...
Just it may looks like that sometimes(:-
THanks for your insightful Questions
Good Trading
I hear you Boris. I have been out of currencies for a couple weeks. Waiting on a LT trend to emerge, as you said, hopefully soon.
And the post-Fed whipsaw continues.
Boris
Please have more respect to the SHEKEL. it is the strongest currency in the world. soon Israel will start supporting America :-)
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
I hope so,
Cause one look and you know who needs the support(:-
REALLY
Good Trading
bought a start in QID
Dear Blaine,
We certainly saw how the suckers were slaughtered in currencies, with every day up and down ( same day , not even waiting for the other(:- )
I think the specualtors were handed enourmous loss, in what Dear Blaine calls whipsaw...
That is the value of ANTISOPITALIST, I hope, we try , first to preserve money.
rule number #1 is and will always be:
DO NOT LOSE MONEY.
When we see the FLATLINING.
We stay out or use THE BEASTS to scalp in the direction indicated.
Good Trading
What happend in Boing?
the stock is crashing ...
shorts look attractive, but affraid to go against the machine ...
Sharon
MDS was correct again, I did ok.
old john
This mini stock rally is going on WITHOUT financials. Financials peaked in the morning and are lower after the Fed. We should fall into the close.
Well,
IF the machine is right and YBR is right, we should have a zig zag for a while and down again sharp into JUly.
GOod Trading
Dear John,
There was a lot of support ( in the entire weight of evidence) for a sort of a rally, unfortunately there is not the same support for a more sustained rally.
ENJOY
GOod Trading
Dear John
I traded with MDS 12 times till now. 9 trades finished with nice profit, not huge profit, since I always prefferd to take the pot without aditional risk. I always tell myself, close the computer and act only based on the MDS signal without any fear or doubt. I am still working on that.
Sharon
Boris,
That is why I day traded, made a little money. When everything is not completely in agreement, it is easier for me to do that. Better for sleeping.
old john
Dear Sharon, JOhn,
Exactly.
While, MDS is making money, I prefer, as a human to treat it an almost sure early warning system that will work out at least in the short term.
And as JOhn, If not the entire evidence is with it than one should be even more careful to trade, make money and sleep well.
Good Trading
Yeah, I think the plunge is coming. Financials turned negative. There is just no support with a 20 VIX and low put/call ratio. You must have these two going with you for any sustainable rally. If anything, they are pointing to a sustainable downtrend.
Dear Blaine
Good call !!!
by the way, we do not need to look on financials it is enough to see when Leg start shorting. sometimes I think this guy manipulate the market :-)
Sharon
Dear Blaine,
I see a grown up trader, in your comments and I am pleased.
I am totally pleased to see that your mind now puts together "ENTIRE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE" instead of just relying on a very narrow set of technicals.
I would like everybody to be in that boat. That is what the real trader looks like.
The SIMPLICITY OF COMPLEXITY. I am sorry, trading is not simple, but you can make it one, provided you understood the complexity of the weight of evidence you need FIRST!
Good Trading
Dear Sharon,
I second the motion about LAG<
He is even earlier( sometimes too much)(:- earlier than the BEASTS themselves.
Good Trading
Blaine,
With my limited knowledge , I totally agree with you. But, I will wait for MDS signal before I go the other way.
old john
Boris, thanks for the compliment. After one year with you, anyone can get better.
John, I second your opinion to wait. Anything can happen and without knowing where the McDonald's is, I could be driving around in circles.
Dear Boris, Re-reading book my grandfather gave me I feel the Forward applies to you and your bloggers: "Dedicated to my subscribers who have encouraged me and to the thoughtful students of financial economics who desire to follow practical rules for trading instead of guesswork and gambling methods." Truth of the Stock Tape, W.D. Gann, 1923. Good Trading JSolo
Dear Jsolo,
You certainly made my day with this quote.
Big part of my existtance is to make sure that those who are serious enough( in love enough) with trading, will learn that truth that WD GANN espoused. First you need some rules and you need to constantly build upon them.
ABSOLUTELY.
I do not know how have I, myself , ever traded without of all of this, but, I guess I did and not so succesfully I must admit.
Thank you very much. Any and all of that sort of a teaching is exactly what we want readers/subscribers to get out of this.
Thank you for taking time and posting this GEM here today
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
still on the bus, wondering if it will go to 1340ish...
Dear Hopper,
Not suer, I knew you were on the bus. Good To hear from you. Chances may not be too bad for 1340, but let us see if we can put a better number on that , via weight of evidence of tomorrow.
Good Trading
Boris,
Thanx for the plug on the blog but to those that are interested- I learned it all here. I started last August.
Lag,
Nice call on the QID- RIMM is getting murdered after hours. QQQQs taking a beating.
old john
FWIW and I could be just all wrong, I'm 50% short into Friday from 3PM today at which point I'll go long 50% into 7/9 (hopefully MDS will agree all the way till 6/30). :-\\ I know it's though!!! I cheat by having Astro signals blowing into my sails. (Sally you know what I mean)
GLTA, curt
Dear John,
Thanks for updates
Good Trading
Dear Curt,
If ANTIDOLLAR is mildly bullish into the early JUly as I suspect than Stocks may just do the same as a CHIEF ANTIDOLLAR.
Remember, SOTOCKS like when our purchasing power goes down ( HOW UNFORTUNATE, we have build this monster), but does not really like when ANTIDOLLAR BOOMS. So, a mildly upword slant in ANTIDOLLAR could a perfect hiding place for stocks to go mildly higher as well.
We, shall see... If things change we will change with them, but nothing I look at this point indicates the UNSOUNDNESs of you idea.
GOod Trading
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