1421 1420 1418 1415 spx 1426 1427 1429 1432
Having problem with TSX data, chekcing out , Our Canadian Friends is TSX closed today?
Dear Readers, confusion caused usage of the older mailing list, which means that new users have not received the IntraDay files ( now coming).
We apologise for that error/omission.
MORE VOLATILE SPX NUMBERS
1420 1418 1414 1410 spx 1428 1430 1433 1438
10:29 ET, those following MDS Formula, I would not be in a hurry to add to positions today,
10:33 ET, please note that the level 1433 is everywhere, on the daily and intraday. So, it is an important level indeed. If broken strongly, then we are going to move much higher, it seems to me.
10:49 ET, So far we broke 1433 very slightly( I mean briefly) and made a tail around it. This if not acceded soon could prove pretty bad for the markets
Just as an educational info. SPX has a 1.2-1.5% range ( high to low) and that is a fluctuation. Trend only shows up when you get two days like this in one direction or one day covering as much in one direction. So, as a measure, we are still in what can be seen as a daily fluctuation.
12:06 ET, not willing to give too much to this market , so my
========stop is 46.89 , -5c
12:10 ET, stop is 46.94, -0c
12:24 ET, Stopped out , 0c.
Well, I am here 24 hours , many buses to come down yet(:-
39 comments:
I think 1431 spx is the 89week moving average. it stalled here,1438 is the next elliot wave pivot.I got stopped out of shorts on spx. added a new one third position at the 1430 area. good trading! Chris
Hi Boris,
yes, the Canadian markets are closed today for a holiday.
Enjoy your trading day,
dj
Dear Jungle,
Thanks a lot.
I was confused , why I was not getting readings?
Well, now we know
GOod Trading
Dear Chronictown,
Good Trading to you too.
Sorry, I was busy to answer you earlier
MDS is looking like a bust this time. Moving well away from entry point now.
Dear Czman,
MDS hihgest drawdown is 92 points, that did not prvent it from makeing a lot of money.
We are only 10 points out so far.
Average is much larger , at least 3 time as much.
Good trading
Boris,
Patience and scale into position. Bought a small lot at 1432 and waiting .
old john
Der Czamn, Just 2 trades ago, we had almost 40 deficit that was wiped out in one day...
There is nothing new, here, but of course, I would caution here with loading up, until and unless we get closer to days 5 more into trade. Good Trading
Dear John,
Good To hear from you.
Good Trading.
"Stay small , stay in business"
This is what you coined and that is 100% correct.
Of course, what is small is relative to capital. Which means my small poisition is probably invisible to even a small fund manager(:-
GOod Trading
Dear Boris, wow, the spx looks like wants to hit the .618 retrace of Oct/Mar....absolutely anemic volume. ISE numbers are in the euphoric area again, crazy #s are being printed again. I close out my shorts until this settles some. Good Trading, Daveo
Dear Dave,
Of course, trader can/should do what you are doing.
I would prefer that one takes a small position strategically chosen and sticks with it, because one never knows when the market turns.
My advise is still to keep the small initial position and not to add to it, until a more promininet resistance shows up. That could happen on the way up or on the way down.
GOod Trading
Boris,
I take a small position the first or second day because of last fall. MDS went on a sell and immediately gained 40 or so points. I do not want to miss that and with a small position, I do not get hurt too bad when I have to add to it.
old john
Dear Readers,
I take my first position here 50 shares of QID.
GOod TRading
I am also in, 2/3
dear Czman,
2/3 is not that high for this time.
Of course, I am just expressing my opinion. Do not have to change what you do, "if it works for you"
GOod Trading
Dear Readers,
Sometimes it looks like I know something with my stop placement. Far from it... Most of a time I really have no clue or I orient myself from AP closeby or FIB point, but mostly my stop only reflects what I want to lose on the trade. You see, the only think I want to be fixed for me is the amount of the loss. I do not care much about anything else(:-
And you can see, I am not ready to lose much , on any trade. That does not make rich like MDS, but that makes me sleep better.
Good Trading
2/3 is too high. However, I have gains from MDS YTD. It is easier to press your bet when you are playing with the House money. Not recommended for someone just starting out on MDS, I agree--more like 15-25%.
Dear Czman,
I though you knew what you are doing...
Now I know you do.
But nevertheless as a host allow me to say this.
MDS profit statistics are unleveraged. That means MDS nver playes more than the same amount of money. What this means is that when you start increasing your bets too much ( and 2/3 could be classified as such).
You may not get the comparable resulst, because, just when you decided to risk good chance of what you made, it could hit you with big loss...
Now, you had some wins, so I presume you are not too far from your initial play money with the risk... in which case I will support your stand.
For new subscribers, please try not to play with your play size too much , at least, at the begining And even later on try to never give up more than 10% of what you GAINED in a single trade.
GOod Trading
I do not increase size per se. But the balance is divided into thirds. I go into MDS 1/3 on Day one, 2/3 on Day 2 or 3, and 1/3 remains always in reserve (I have yet to actually place the final 1/3--but I migh in the future).
Size only increases by the increase in account balance. So if I make 2% on my first trade, the next trade now has 102% to work with--no more.
Some people using futures think that they can increase size by going from one e-mini contract to two e-mini contracts, after having a couple of gains. This DOUBLES account risk. I have learned the hard way not to do this. In fact, I recommend not even having a futures account, even though they are cheaper on commissions, frictional costs, and spreads. The temptation to pyramid up is too large. SSO/SDS or QLD/QID only provide 2X leverage and that is plenty enough. Just my two cents for your readers, Boris.
Early on my shorts....
PAIN!
Dear Czman,
Spoken like a true professional.
Yes, Dear Readers the futures are not dangerous because they inherently are...
They are dangerous, because we are dangerous as humans.
We start thinking that because we can, we may as well take as much risk as we... can or think we can...
As soon as the trade goes against us, we throw out the SYSTEM which got us to trade and think, "S... I am losing money here, get me out"
So, instead of making the time our friend, we make it our enemy and get out regardless of what SYSTEM says.
SYSTEM can not make money, if people will not follow what it says and stands for and OVERLEVERAGE/OVEREXTENSION just does not allow any system to be followed, except the "SYSTEM OF NERVES BREAKDOWN"
SO, what Dear Zcman sais correct and that is what I do with people who over extend with futures. I tell them buy 50 shares of QQQQ.
I can imagine what they think about me at that moment, but I am here to save people not to let them destroy themselves.
SO, hear Dear Czman, do not trade futures unless you have established for sure that you know how to defeat its temptations.
Good Trading
Dear D,
With as managable position, one should not experience PAIN. Pain is an indication that Unmanagable position was put on.
With a managable position, the feeling opporutinty ( market went against me and the sutpis market does not even know that this exactly what I want it to do, so that I can sell more!) should be dominating the felling of PAIN. Otherwise position is not managable in a first place.
GOod Trading
The position is large. It is not because of MDS though, I didn't stick to my original thesis...
MY FAULT!
I have been looking for a respectable exit by I think I might just take the losses and move on.
Dear D,
Now that we are here,
Please do me a favor, Take a loss only if QID goes below 46.94
GOod Trading
QID would = 36.94?
The largest component is actually DUG...
The sick thing is my long positions were:
QLD from 65-66
FXI: 146
EEB: 46
DIG: 83
It's painful because I was so right and jumped ship early only to get blasted on the short side...
Dear D,
I see the exhaustion bars created all over JPY and ES .
I believe the rally is looking tired, at least on the short term bases. if we make the new highs after 2:30 ET, though I would conclude that market has more power left.
GOod Trading
Yea...
The USD/JPY refused to crack 105.50 so I left them all on. I don't trade as frequently as MDS cycles...
Look for multi-week/month trends.
Just a bad move on my part.
Dear Boris,
"The feeling of opportunity..
should be dominating the feeling of pain."
Will be etched in my brain forever.
Thanks for all the tactics/strategy to start the day off.
Good trading
Dear Klaatu,
All we are is humans.
WE can not function when our nerves are in the overdrive. So, the process of becoming a trader has nothing to do with market knowledge. It has all to do with learning how to contorl the "significan other" in our body. And that "significatn other" is a trader in our body. We need to carefully listne what makes that "significant other" happy and go only there...
That is why, I will repeat for the billionth time. Trading has only two secrets.
1) Have a system
2) Follow it
By following the system one has clear parameters for loss amount, the number of days in the position and all that is just a simple statistics given by system. Whith these parameters one needs to fix the trading position size that makes him/her comfortable ( experimentallY) and stick with it.
That is so simple, but so difficult for humans. It is amazing.
Good Trading
Took a small position of QID at NDX 2050 (gap resistance) and SPX 1340 (wedge resistance.
As Boris so eloquently said, I'm hoping we don't see higher highs after 2:30.
JPY turned around nicely. Leading the market again?
Dear Boris
Good evening.
GLD looks strong for the last couple of days. Is your projection for June low still valid?
Thanks
Sharon
Boris said :
"Have a system and follow it"
sounds reasonable :-)
Sharon
Anyone like candlesticks? If we can end the day down, we have a Bearish engulfing pattern. It would be nice confirmation of the MDS, on top of the weekly bollinger band being hit and weekly and daily resistance in this area.
Boris,
MDS is made for people like me, old and patient.
old john
Took a smidgen off. Now 50% instead of 2/3.
Hello all. Just subscribed to the MDS service yesterday.
Was entertaining family all afternoon and missed the excitement.
I'll wait for the next bus. I'm trying to learn patience, I'll have to be more patient with myself as I learn!
I am really looking forward to learning a great deal from Boris and all the great contributors on this blog.
Best wishes to all.
JVE
Dear Sharon,
Yes I still expect GOLD to turn down into June/July period, I will announce more precise parametners when we get closer to that date.
GOod Trading
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