1395 1393 1389 1385 spx 1404 1406 1409 1413
1460 is the 62% FIBO, will this market go for it, now or on the next BUY.
I would say chances are pretty good for that. But we should stick to what MDS
Says.
1460 is the 62% FIBO, will this market go for it, now or on the next BUY.
I would say chances are pretty good for that. But we should stick to what MDS
Says.
Please note that the above chart is the only one that I know that explicitly said the "real market" tops on 2007, MAY 10 + couple weeks and so it was
. That is a history and when people go back and ask who rang the BELL at the top. The world will know to look at http://www.safehaven.com/ ( see article "Sorry To Blow Your $u$$le, Ringing the Bell" ) or on this site and say. There was nobody except this crazy guy BORIS. There was no BIGGS there was Nor ROGERS nor anybody else...Dear Readers, there is not general trader. There are as many traders as there are people. On this site we provide enough tools for anybody to trade whatever style they desire. I like to get people started On MDS, because it is a more lay back type of system with high accuracy and it is an easy way to get into "trading".
12:56 ET, you may have noticed that market rally came as the Dollar REstarted the rally. This is a mini "PANIC" of the world trying to get in on the "cheap" $Dollar
13:08 ET, At this point, I stay the course with the system and I would cover when MDS covers. So far it has not done so. While I personally manage discretionary trading capital. I have some money allocated and traded only with MDS and do not touch it in between the signals. I only control the amount I risk per trade. So, the discipline is maintained but risk is controlled according to the general market feel I have. This is a none discretionary style trading. One either adopts or not.
For a begginer, though I do not see much choice. Right at the begining of today(see statment), I thought high was a chance for a rally to regenerate itself. But again, if you are going to follow machine, you must do it without hesitation.
13:41 ET, any time now, an accelerated phase of Dollar rally will kick in. I expect that to come within next 10 days
62 comments:
This is one MDS sell that just won't go down!
Boris--if market simply jets off to 1440 from here, would MDS stay on a sell signal the whole time, do you think?
Dear czman, If market zooms up in here MDS most likely stays in the sell, but not guaranteed.
Good Trading
I would say that the probability will grow for market ZOOM we get
+3,4 points on SPX
Of course, in my fantasy world, the market trends down to close the current sell at no loss, triggers a buy, and we all go long to ride it up to 1440, and then get the sell to ride it back down!
Too much to ask for, I suppose. Can't get every sguiggle.
Boris,
put/call ratio is now doing its part
old john
Dear John, Which reading do you refer to?
Good trading
Boris,
The half hour change by the CBOE-- totals
John,
Do you know where I can get current readings of the Put / Call Ratio? I'm using stockchart.com and don't know how current it is. Any help would be appreciated.
Thanks,
Tony
Just my two cents about put call
Put call is at 78, almost touching it's lower Bollinger Band. If it penetrates the lower band, it is usually a good signal to go short.
On the other hand, it has been and can go as low as 60 at major highs.
Another metric is the put call moving averages. The 20 day is dropping like a rock, but I've seen lower.
Put call sometimes helps me make a decision, but I don't rely on it completely.
Dear Action Points
stockchart symbol for put call ratio is $cpc
action point,
I am computer ( besides other things Illiterate) so I cannot post link. Go to google and put in put call ration- they will name a spot on cboe- hit it and you will have it. Sorry I am so clumsy with this stupid computer
old john
Also, if you guys have never seen this, another put call indicator. Supposedly more accurate.
http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126&header3=true&menu0=true&link1=true
John,
No problem whatsoever. I appreciate your help.
Boris,
Not sure if it's on the Shakers List....still on the Tailored Service...but I'm watching SUTR here. ...another off the radar company with a beautiful chart and base under resistance. Just my opinion.
Tony
www.cboe.com/data/intradayvol.aspx
Dear Action Points
SUTR behaves well , it is at third AAP.
But due to it not being in my list at the begining of the YEAR, ( My data provider did not have it in JAN) I do not follow it. It is very new stock.
Good Trading
Everyone,
I appreciate the info.
Happy Trading,
Tony
action points:
I bought SUTR this morning as well as RCH CPSL and ASIA, all are reasonably priced,
Barton Biggs is bullish on China, as is Jim Rogers and I'm happy being on the same side trade as those two
Bartons view is large cap will outperformn, large cap tech will outperform, emerging asia China/India, we will see new highs on S&P this summer and he has been legendary in his calls
after FNM today, I am scratching my head to figure out what it takes this market to go down
Neil,
I've been in ASIA as well for a week or so. I need to check on RCH and CPSL as I'm not familiar with them. Thanks for the heads up. Another China play to look at is NED, but the volume is a bit light. It does have a nice chart though.
Hopefully, DIS and/or CSCO will take us down. My QID would appreciate it.
Happy Trading,
Tony
Dear Neil
Dear Action Points
Dear Readers
It While CHINA and all Others are good when they go up. On a pound per pound basis the USA stocks have outperformed the other stocks on the percentage move as well as REAL "dollar" move bases, after March Dollar turn.
I love both of those gentlemen BIGGS and ROGERS, but ROGERS wanted you to sell all DOLLARS you have and you do not have. YOu would have lost a lot of money between February and Now.
Yes, agree that this market is behaving very differently from anything We have seen in 2 years of MDS history, but MDS is not a long term system, it is a swing trading system...
GOod Trading
Boris:
Any thoughts on crude and USD/EUR?
Thanks.
Joe
Dear Joe,
After breaking above FAAP(first ANnual Attraction Point) the USO ETF is in a stron rally here. Amazingly enough everything is in a rally on a relatively small decline in Dollar. In fact after Dollar strted to get stronger against JPY the Stock rally started.
Our outlook on dollar is stronger into Sept and OIL may, potentically not top( we indicated this) Till July/Aug.
Good Trading
Dear Boris,
we all are adult and know that MDS can't always be on the right side. So every trader must calculate occasional losses, even with so good system.
I must say that my trades in recent time are based on even shorter time-horizon, I use mostly your APs and my intuition. I personally think that, if we are patient enough, there are situation, every day, when the probability for winning trade is greater then 80%.
Good trading, Ivan
Nice chart Boris- show it how it is!
Interestingly, another chart that shows how institutional buying/selling behavior could be at inflection point:
Link to chart
there is a very good chance that we are at or close to a major inflection point here.
Dear Ivan,
It is clear that MDS is a SWING system and USING AP's to fintune it the only way to go.
I do not think though that majority of people that are new to this site, have yet arrived at a "trader" stage where MDS can be traded with APs. A
Frankly the premise of MDS is that you do not need to. Just need to wait for another 12 no loss streak to start... Soon(:-
GOod Trading
Just a reminder
They are selling 10 and 30 yr bonds on 7 and 8th
Market may stay up till then
what is going on this mad market?
Dear Sharon,
I do not think anything is going on that we did not assess as "probable".
Even in the midst of this morning rally I was ascribing the 50/50 chacne to higher move...
Unexpected this is not...
But when you manage money certain way, you have to stick with it or you may as well not trade.
For none discritionary trading , we must stick with MDS.
IF somebody is capable of discretion and wants to deviate that is their choice.
Good Trading
Hi Boris, this market just don't want to come down. I have been watching for a long time and have never seen the mkt go against the MDS for so long. Is it a major top around the may 10th area that you are looking for. Thanks, waldo.
Dear Boris
it has nothing to do with trading.
It is funny that as more the bad news come the higher the market go :)
Sharon
Boris, yes, during last MDS buy I sold my SPX calls almost 50 points before MDS sell signal. I had 55 contracts, so 55*50 = more then 2500 USD. Only because I didn't trust MDS.
It's trader's life.
Regards, Ivan
Dear Waldo,
I am not , at this juncture calling for a major top on MAY 10.
I called the MAJOR top on MAY 10 in 2007.
We shall see what happens here. I am not comitted at this time.
Good Trading
Boris,,your explanation to Curt about MDS was very helpful,,,but I just have one more question concerning this answer,,just to clarify for me,,you said:
"See MDS FORMULA( search on this site)
Good Trading.
You are given set of 8 / 10 values Daily Intraday. They are marked Upper and Lower. When MDS in BUY you may want to look for strength around those points and BUY ( for day trading or for MDS swing trading).
DO inverse for MDS in SELL mode."
My queston is since we are in sell for MDS,,,then all items on interday list are also inclined to be shorts,,,not buys as of yet,,,Am I correct in this assumption? And I understand that this is not advice,,,just trying to understand direction of trading.
Dear Sharon,
As I explained , this is a PILE into DOLLAR RALLY... So, it has nothing to do with anything else.
WHen you buy DOLLAR, what can you do?
BUY BONDS or BUY STOCKS.
BONDS... I told you not ot buy. SO what doy you buy, ONLY WHAT IS LEFT... STOCKS.
GOod Trading
Dear Tim,
You are absolutly, correct.
If find time trading intraday/only, I will be selling this market.
Correct. MDS on the BUY, that is what is called.
GOod Trading
Dear Boris
Understood.
thanks
sharon
Dear Ivan, That is why, if you do not know any better...
Do not secondguess the system that does.
Even if you know better, system will eat you alive in the long run...
That is just the way it is.
There are only two rules in trading
1) Have a good system ( I challenged the world to compare to MDS, you all saw the results)
2) Follow it. With smart Money/trade management
That is it...
Dear Boris,
I agree completely with you.
One question, to control myself: how many trades per day is 'normal' for trader to do? I mean, we all have limits. Do you have some suggestions?
Thanks, Ivan
Dear Ivan,
Control, is personal.
If you can take it trade all that makes you happy.
But, if/when you notice that you are:
Irritated
Can not sleep
Stop Instantly.
I trust you are good at math and do not overextend...
So, whatever makes you happy.
ANy sign of unhappiness is a signal to stop instantly.
Good Trading
Thanks for getting me up and running Boris,,,I finally have Excel working,,and yes,,it is up to date.
I also see that the dollar is where one would be a buyer,,,as the attraction points moved very close together(Actually crossed) a few days back. And my guess is this is why today you posted that you expect dollar to rally past 75 soon.
Now,,,if my interpretation is correct,,,and the dollar is to rally past 75,,,one would expect to see oil and gold,,,along with the other currencies,,,to also correct...
Like I said when I signed up for service,,,I visited a while back,,,and now MDS,,attraction points are making sense again(providing I'm correct in the above)
Dear Tim,
There is a lot going on on this site, which confuses a lot of people.
Our long time forecast was that DOllar bottoms Mar/April 2008 and it looks like it did.
Our long time forecast for the stock market is down ( Real Market ) I mean( Dollar Adjasted SPX).
Our long term forecast for BONDS is higher interest rates, starting from Mar/July 2008.
OUr long term forecast for GOLD is higher ( from mid to late 2008).
MDS as you know is a swing ( 6-7) day trading system and applies stocks and in PROXY to everything else ( as things correlate and Anticorrelate with stocks).
Attraction Points allow further finetuning if/when the trade wants to use discretionary approach to trading.
While simply put above. This is confusing some/many due to the mixup in methods and time frames etc.
Please take into account what was said above.
Thanks and Good Trading. I think you are getting there though...
Boris with dollar getting stronger won't the stock market rally with dollar. thanks, Waldo
Dear Waldo,
That is what was foing on since March 18 , whcih was given to our subscribers as a SUPER TURN DATE...
OK, at some point the STRONG Dollar starts hurting the "EARNINGS" of the multinationals ( who is not exporting these days)....
SO, while initially the STocks act as a parking place for foreigherns,later on it becomes a drag on the economy. So, the answer is YES in the short run and answer is NO in the longer run.
What is shor and what is long?
It is not alwats easy to crystalize the time, but I would say that DOllar helped and helps some more( month or two), but should start to drag the "earnings" thereafter. It could happen faster. That is why we/I need to follow MDS and remove some subjectivity out of this equation.
Good Trading Dear Waldo
Dear Boris,,,I am sorry,,,as I was not trying to confuse others on the site. I agree that the last post was a long term question,and moreso it was my thinking out loud,,and yes the previous questions/comments were concerning short term and swing trades...
I'll try not to confuse in the future....I was just confirming what was going on in my head.
Thanks again.
Dear Tim,
Thanks, this was not , by the way, addressed to you only.
It was just an opportunity for all readers, to sort exact terms and conditions under which our tools, methods apply and systems implement which part of it.
Thanks for the opportunity
GOod Trading
Dear Waldo,
Going back to the DOLLAR strength issue. Now "FOREIGNER" is not just a guy living in BELGIUM that invests in USA... Remember, a lot of USA capital was exported outside, to be invested in EUROPE, ASIA and places.
SO, instead of FOREIGNES parking money in USA, I should have said the Capital ( worldwide comes back to USA, foreign or domestic investors, companies, funds, coming back to USA markets)
Good Trading
I am holding june 48 q puts and under water now, I have been adding from 48 as market moves higher. My question is would it be wise to continue holding these puts. Thanks, waldo
Dear Waldo,
To trade MDS with options is very hard. Because of the decay element in option. You need to be correct in direction and in time. Very hard... to do consistently and probabli requires quicker CUT time than the security investment.
If the option is of 1-2 months than it will not decay fast and maybe worth holding. If the option is short term. It must/should have been terminated at the first chance, like this morning.
In general, if option does not work in couple days, I do not advise to keep them. That measns one has purchased a lot of "time premium" that may go waste as we are waiting.
Good Trading
Waldo
Why not use 2x ETF's---much easier
Dear Lag,
I agree 100%
Leverage is a double edged sword and can really be very hard on one's mental capacity.
95% of options expire wowthless, we are very disadvantaged when we buy options that do noe justtify thesleves in 2-3 days.
GOod Trading
have a little of qid also
spx hit the 50% retrace from march bottom and oct. highs. waldo
Boris
ever since you started the big advertising of your system a few weeks ago I think the Fed is trying to show everyone that it doesnt work.
Cost them Billions to disprove it
Dear Lag,
They are destined to fail(:-
Good Trading
Lagscrew,
You may be on to something.
The trust level I have with THEM is nonexistent. I am sure you have seen my comments concerning the subprime. THE knew what was going on.
old john
Ya look at fannie mae this morning ---what a joke
Dear Lag,
That is an understatment.
Knew who? What?
Dear Lag,
I was the DEAR GREENSHADES HIMSELF that proclaimed to nation that ARM was godsend, 2 years before the crisis and 1 year before retirrement in 2004.
Knew?! ha... MOre like initiated!!!!!
Good Trading
Sorry Dear John,
I have addressed to Dear Lag,
Good Trading(:-
Boris,
I knew what you meant, we have discussed it here a few times.
old john
Options that are extremely "in the money" behave just like the underlying, without all the hassles of three day settlement and the good faith rules, and, as a sweetener, have finite risk. Just be sure you price out the exposure you want in the underlying, and don't use the options to increase leverage, and do NOT pay anything more than a few pennies for time premium.
Dear Boris
good morning
does MDS still on SELL?
when this cycle supposed to end?
thanks
Sharon
Dear Sharon,
Post is getting posted.
See the new status.
GOod Trading
thanks boris
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