Dear Readers, Considering the Configuration of the Gages, I expected a worst market today. The fact that it did not happen is encouraging. Nasdaq May have dodged the bullet. Let us see what the weekend update says. National Casino Closed For today. Long live CASINO.
Thanks all for good spirited participation. Good Trading
OK SOPITALISTS, LOOK AT ONE OF YOU ( ALAN GREENSPAN) IN THE VIDEO BELOW, PATHETIC!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/09/13/60minutes/main3257567.shtml
Of course, you can/should bring up any issue, but I am very interested exploring Idea Banks In different Countries. If you have an Insight , Opinion, please share with us. Does not matter where you are from ( NORTH-SOUTH AMERICAS,EUROPE,ASIA, MEAST,STATES , CITIES). Please share with us the impressions about Real Estate, Banks and Currencies. Let us see what we can learn today, like are they going up, down, what is the anecdotal evidence etc.
50 comments:
Hi Boris, just checked insider trading and found several Canadian Banks are selling as well as Barrick, Goldcorp Jaguar, Kinross and even Suncor... This is not normal.
(sorry I mostly follow Canadian markets)
It does appear that your road map is about 5 years 10 cal days behind 2002 for XAO at least.
14th feb 2002 was the bull market high for XAO and the Feb high this year was 23rd or 9 days behind.
Of course Armstrong's head of his H&S pattern was 26th Feb.
The significant low in 2002 was 6th aug and this year 10 days late at 16th.
The rally high was 23rd Aug in 2002 and this time is 5th Sep or 13 days.
In 2002 the rally didn't completely surrender to what would be about 27th Sep this time.
The important low was 10th Oct so +10 says 20th as per your model.
The interesting one is March 13 2003 bear low for XAO which suggests march 23 2008.
Interesting because Armstrong's right neckline is due 21/22 of March as well.
Dear voltaire,
I should look into this, but I guarantee you that there is nothing in my design that knows anything about 5 years or any number of years. I could have chosen 2,4,15 year of look ahead, it is just a way of me to see years ahead of the graph I produce, that is because TRADSTATION 4.0 can not chart in the future, I must resort to this trick.
If it seems to be similar to 2003 XAO so be it, but it is a bad model to follow.
GOod Trading
Dear Hopper,
If you are correct, that sounds we must be careful here.
Good Trading
Boris
I am saying 2007 is following 2002 not 2003.
Hi Boris, for those interested
http://www.canadianinsider.com
/recentFilings/index.php
These are the canadian stocks, but some of the big ones are listed on US exchanges too.
These are a day old or so, I specifically look for selling of Common Shares Deposited on the public market.
Also, the Can$ recently hit a 30yr high...
Dear voltaire,
Appreciate the correction.
I am also saying something that is basically in opposition to comparing this to any year. As if it works it is purely conicidence and not design. And could be dangerous to follow.
Thanks for pointing the similarity, though I shell look closer.
Good Trading
Dear Hopper really thanks for this info. While I have littel time to search for these , when it comes like this it is very easy to digest and I sure many readers will appreciate this info.
GOod Trading
Dear Boris,
Cobbense mentioned SWEDBANK yesterday. Here is a short notice from the largest swedish bussinesspaper:
”Swedbank denying liquidity problems.
Rumors on the market sad recently that Swedbank has serious liquidity problems.
Swedbanks IR- chef Johannes Rudbeck told the media yesterday: the Bank had no liquidity problems at all during the recent creditmarket turmoil. The bank has access to well functioning and diversified sources of liquidity.”
(whatever it means. Talkinghead has spoken.)
We can disregard talkingheads and different theories. In your gauges we trust, Boris.
Good trading
Istvan
Dear Istvan,
Thanks for your kind words.
Yes, you know... I am not sure anymore what to call these central bankers and their supporters.
Are they managers ( managers of what?)
Ate they Manipulators ( sure they look like )
Ate they degenerates ( probabily )
Dear Istvan, I long stopped reading and listening, actually ever since I saw RUSSIAN APARATCHICS tell people " to live modest life" and I saw them accumulate gargantuam wealteh.
I knew how the world worked then, regardless of the name the system gave itself ( CAPTIALISTM, SOCIALISM or any other ISM ).
I enjoy info that I get from all DEAR readers, but I do not go for it. First I save My EYEs then I save my aggravation.
I just look at my numbers and hell with everybody else.
I know media has only one purpuse ( 99 % of time) , Interested parties try to push onto the public lies to serve their own purpose...
With that said.
Love your contributions man.
GOod trading
Dear Cobbense/Istvan,
FOr what it is worth this SWEDA bank has the following support points
201 close, 172, 125 HUH.., 67 HUHUH...
It looks like it is on a KAMIKAZE mission.
GOod Trading
cezarfi,
Swedbank should not have any liquidity problems, though really anything could happen these days, but recent years profit escalation are in danger.
A large procent of Swedbanks increased profits have come from mortgage lending in the Baltic states (Swedbank owns Estionian Hansapanka), and these profits are likely to have largely disappeared already. If the Baltic real estate market crashes (may have already started), then they will also see significant losses on bad loans. I do not know how well Swedbank is isolated from their daughter bank Hanspanka.
The Latvian Lat (LVL) is by the way once again under devaluation pressure.
Regards,
Boris,
If you like Swedish banks, you could look at the other 3 of the "big 4". Of these, SHBA has been the more conservative, the others have expanded massively into the Baltic and other Eastern European countries in recent years.
SHBA
Svenska Handelsbanken
SEBA
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken
NDA
Nordea
Dear Cobbense,
You gave us a nice survey of Scandinavia. But expand a bit more. I have read that Stockholm (Un)real estate is still rising, true?
What is the currency mostly used for RE landing ( SWISS FRANK?).
Good Trading
Dear Readers,
Here is my contribution. In Israel the Real Estate prices have been going up, due to tremdeous impovment in the employment picture and Foreign Money( Specualators) flooding the market. Israel is on a cycle shift of about 1 year of USA and that keeps picture look a bit better still, but I think it is about to roll down. The overbuilding in late 1990's though has prevented a real runup in prices here though, and that inventory is gradually coming down from (2 years of supply to under 1 year).
Especially the demand has been strong IN TELAVIV area as the diminished goverment subsidies and security concerns in periphery caused people to flook to the center.
Good Trading
Boris,
In Sweden only SEK is used for real estate lending (and evreything else - of course!).
The exceptions should be very few - possibly the very rich, expats or corporations, never "ordinary people".
Swedish banks had a near death experience about 15 year ago in a locally Swedish commercial real estate bubble & crash, they had to all be bailed out by the government, and have since then practiced very conservative real estate lending.
Sweden seems to have lagged the rest of Europe, only just now appartment prices in Stockholm seem to be accelerating in a blow-off phase, however at a lower level than in say Denmark (which is seriously correcting).
I do not expect any major real estate problems in Sweden this time around, even if the rest of the world crashes and burns. Sweden is, after all, Sweden.
In Latvia however the EUR is mainly used for mortgage lending. I have read stories about for example Hungary mainly using CHF, but here I do not believe that is common. Not being involved in real estate, I really do not know more.
Regards,
Dear Cobbense,
I appreciate and kind of confirm what I have been hearing about goings in Scandinavia and Hungary.
Good Trading
Boris,
As to Denmark, I recently read a story in swedish news that 20,000 Danish apartment buyers are "technically insolvent", as they have bought near the top in recent years, and apartment prices have now gone down 20%.
20,000 seems like a lot for a small country like Denmark, though I have no idea what persent that is of the apartments.
Regards,
Dear Cobbens, So, even usually cool norhterners got the (Un)real estate fever ha...
Who would not, $US, YEN was/is given away for nothing...
But yes, it looks like the combination of demand saturation ( in most developed world) and the tight money is begining to slow down the temperature.
Good Trading
Dear Readers,
I hear LONDON/NYC are finally cracking up under the weight of unaffordable housing.
What do you know.
Would like to hear form people close to these PAPER canters.
Good Trading
Boris,
Denmark and especially Ireland have been doing much better economically than Sweden in recent years, an apartment in Dublin was twice as expensive as in Stockholm when I last checked, while Sweden is twice the size of Ireland. Go figure.
Sweden has been, and essentially still is in stagnation, outside of the major multinationals, compared with the dynamic areas of Europe.
Dear Cobbense,
I am not sure what stagnation means for Scandinavians, but per capita income around $45.000 for Sseden is not that bad for STAGNATING country, I think IRELAND is about $50.000. Considering the population the wealth in Sweden seems enormous.
GOod Trading
Boris,
Well, everything is relative.
Anecdotally, two of my three grown Swedish daughters are down in France working temporarily (they plan to continue studying eventually). They complain that it's much harder to find good work & above all good pay in Sweden.
Much of Swedish IT sales & support are run from Ireland and the London area. Why? lower taxes all around than in Sweden. Outsourcing Swedish speaking support jobs to asy India is probably rather difficult as yert, though even that may change eventually - it's easier to entice native Swedish speakers to move to Dublin to work for a few years.
Regards,
Dear Boris,
some last thoughts about the swedish non-commercial real estate market.
I have the feeling that a larg number of home buyers between the age of 25-35 finance their homes by borrowing 100% of the market value. (Sometimes even more to "fresh-up the interior)
In the first 5-10 years they pay only interests on these loans. The ideƩ is that the value will increase and exceed loan value (feels this pattern familiar?)
Imagine the effect of a downturn in real estate values or upturn in interest rates.
In 1988-91 I was co-owner and CoB of a small real estate company.
In September 1990 a Finance Company called "Nyckeln" ("The Key" how ironic!) went belly-up. In less than 6 months real estate values dropped 40%. We were wiped-out. Lot of people tells me today "it can not happen again" Let them believe. They will learn soon enough.
Have a nice weekend everyone
Istvan
Dear Cobbense,
When you find who is making this $45000 a year income per capita, give me a call again(: :).
In a semisocialist country is the wealth so distorted, meaning high inequity?
Well. we shell find in time.
Good Trading
Dear Istvan,
I believe you. It has happened already in USA. Florida homes are selling less than 60% of their value just 2 years agao.
Good Trading
Dear Readers,
Obviously we have all heared about spain, real estate crashing and burning ha...
What a bummer?
Good Trading
cezarfi,
Yes, that happened in 1990, there was extreme speculation in primarily commercial real estate, with the banks actively involved.
Today is quite different - more conservative, i.e. nowhere near as leveraged, and everyone in the banks still remember very well what happened 15 - 20 years ago.
Boris,
Sweden "semisocialist"? rather, fascist with a socialist facade, I would say.
Yes, inequality is high, but what would you expect?
Regards,
Dear Cobbense,
I should take a careful look next time I visit Sweden( which would be first time). Everything I know about it is by ouside info.
Thanks for updating us.
Good Trading
G’day Boris and team. Real estate in Australia had been on a years-long run-up till fairly recently, when Sydney and most of the rest of the country fell back a little.
The exceptions have been Queensland and Western Australia, the natural resource-rich states which have been booming on the back of the global demand for commodities; housing price growth is still strong in these two states.
However, as elsewhere in the world “innovations” like 100pct or more loans became part of the scene and it is hard to believe there will not be more fatal consequences than we have yet seen from the credit market turmoil.
As far as is publicly known, these consequences are that a CDO-invested fund operated by hedge fund Basis Capital is in liquidation with losses of as much as 80pct of possibly $US255 million; and a non-bank mortgage funding provider, RAMS, has been caught short $US5 billion-plus on short-term US-based funding for its long-term commitments – it is a candidate for takeover or bankruptcy and a sale of assets.
RAMS listed at $A2.50 on July 31, its shares fell as low as 56c on August 16 and it closed yesterday at 81c.
...
You remarked the other day Boris that the Australian sharemarket might fare better than some others in the period ahead. Supporting that projection is the resource boom mentioned earlier, which barring civil unrest and real disruption in China will continue to be a positive factor.
Apart from coal, iron ore and longstanding uranium contracts, uranium sales to China were approved by the Federal Government this year; and at the APEC conference in Sydney last week Russia too arranged to buy. India is keen as well.
All things considered, Australia is likely to get through coming events in better shape than many/most other countries. There’s even a balancing factor to the interest rate negatives from the credit problems: if it weren’t for the increases in interest rates caused by those problems, the Reserve Bank would have been increasing interest rates anyway of inflationary pressures generated by the resource boom.
...
A couple of days ago I ran across an article titled “Of Debt, Deflation and Rotten Apples”, written by a Henry Liu who is described as chairman of a New York-based private investment group. Greenspan should read it: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HA11Dj01.html
Apart from what’s in the Asia Times archive, Liu has a web site at http://www.henryckliu.com/
Regards to all
Malcolm
Dear Malcolm,
Really , really good opening Salvo about Asia and epicenter of Resource boom ( biggest consumer and one of the biggest supplier being there.)
I hope Readers will refresh themselves on the sites indicated.
GOod Trading
Hi Boris, Real Estate in Canada is just topping now, though some pockets are still rising. Usually Canada lags the US. Prices seem to have peeked just this July.
Dear Hopper Thanks for info about our Northern brothers.
Good Trading
Boris,
I was not going to respond but someone else brought up Florida, so here goes.
I retired on 15 apr 07- My house has been up for sale since 1 Feb. I have lowered my price 3 times. I wish to move to Arizona because of my wife's health.
We have had 100 people look at the house with 2 offers. I accepted each offer but the buyers could not get financing. There are 11 homes in a 4 square block area for sale.
I live on the Northwest side of Chicago and am stuck here.
Old John
Dear John,
Sorry, for your situation, really, that is what happens when things get artificailly inflated and then deflated.
Although in your situation the Auto industry troubles may have been the main culprit.
We appreciate the courage and responding here.
We are just trying to give people flavor of what is going on and more people speak up better picture we get
I sincerely hope that situation in your are improves with the GM FORD and CHRYSLER so that you can accomplish your dream.
Love you John.
Good Trading
Dear John,
If there is anything good about this, perhaps is that Arizona real estate is experiencing trouble as well, so that if you were to get less for your home, I hope you would get something reasonable for the same price in Arizona.
Again, Good Luck My Good Friend.
And Good Trading
Boris,
Thank you for your input. Real estate is worse in Arizona but I am just stuck, not much can be done. If I continue as I have been with the pressure gauges, wife and I will winter in Arizona.
Old John
AMEN... AMEN... AMEN... Their John.
Man you would make my day.
Good Trading
Boris,
Here is a short factually correct/conspiratorially slanted history of Sweden.
(never assume conspiracy when plain stupidity or incompetence suffice - the latter are much more common than the first)
Undermining the Welfare State in Sweden
http://www.zmag.org/zmag/articles/june95wennerberg.htm
" . . .
In 1985, the SAP deregulated the credit market. This, in combination with the excess profits created by the devaluation's, led to an orgy of reckless corporate borrowing and speculation in real-estate and stocks. When the bubble burst in 1990, all that remained was financial disaster (worsened by deflationary policies). Between 1988 and 1992, the total credit losses of Swedish banks and financial companies amounted to a staggering Skr 153 billion.
In 1989, the SAP proceeded to deregulate the currency market, thus willingly handing over even more power to investors. This deregulation has considerably worsened the magnitude and impact of short-term fluctuations in the currency market. Moreover, the Swedish currency market is more or less controlled by 15 to 20 of the biggest Swedish TNCs, whose power to direct public policy is now without precedent. “Few industrial countries, if any, have as strong a concentration of industrial production in so big, dominant corporations as Sweden,” financial analyst Peter Malmqvist observes; accordingly, in Sweden, “the market does not work like in theory.” Ever since 1990, most of the important decisions over economic policy in Sweden have been made to satisfy the demands of the “market,” as interpreted by the neoliberal priesthood.
. . . "
Dear Cobbense.
Ok, I think I remember now all that period you are talking about. Definitely remember, but the details escaped me.
Now that yo mention them, it is clear. SOPITALISTS got there after USA, but early enough for them to grab the power and control.
GOtit Dear Friend.
GOod Trading
Hi Boris,
First time posting here even though following your blog for a long time.
Did you happen to read the book title " Secrets of the Temple " by William Greider about how the Federal Reserve runs the country ?
Regards
series of good detailed articles on the UK bank panic (soon to be worldwide?). This good get very nasty very quickly if the central bankers are perceived to have lost control.
__________________________________
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/16/cnrock116.xml
" . . .
In scenes not experienced for decades, police were needed to keep the peace at branches across the country as increasingly angry and desperate investors rushed to withdraw their funds.
. . . "
Dear Analyzer.
I have not read the book. I knew it is out there and have heared excerpts from it.
IN short, I did not read it and I do not plan to read it.
I have stopped reading a while ago and it may not be so good, but I find that reading others opinions mostly confirms what I thought about the subject or presents the issue in a fraudulant way and makes me aggravated.
So, getting so little out of reading I stoped reading.
Again this could prove to be a mistake, but I am not willing to go through garbage to find the bottles to tourn them in for 5 cents.
I would rather think of things I know and get them better organized. That has proven more useful to me.
Again, no appologies, different people workd differently and precieve things differently and take advantage of things.
I am satisfied with what I do.
DIgerssing from the quesion perhaps. You maybe having a follow up question or comment.
Please do.
Good Trading
Dear Boris,
No problems absolutely and agree with your explanation.
I just found that book interesting to read. A jist of it is also mentioned on this Blog
http://sjlendman.blogspot.com/2006/06/dirty-secrets-of-temple.html
I think S&P could breach the March 5th Lows by a slight margin i.e breaching 1364 by a slight margin before moving up to new Highs and i beleive your CRASH warning signal would most likely turn out to be true as i am based in India and i co-relate most times both markets and i think the potential crash also possible here..around 20% correction....
Anyway as the days come by, the charts would give more clues as to which way it is heading and then take it day by day.
Regards and a good trading week ahead.
Dear Analyzer, Namaste!.
I am glad we now have persons from great coutnry INDIA joining us.
I have a lot of friends that are INDIAN as I worled a lot in IT field.
I also loved INDIAN films since my young age.
How about
" Mera Juta Ejapany, Epadloom Indostaney, Me pera tupi rusi pir be dil he indostany "
Raj Kapur Mr 420.
Dear Analyzer welcom to our now truely international site.
GOod to hear from you and let us hope that we can be in the direction of the markets, regarthless which way they go.
GOod Tradig Dear Analyzer.
Hi Boris,
Projected Ranges for This Week:
13232 - 13679
2569.6 - 2645.3
1461.6 - 1512.1
Jim
Boris and Readers:
We in US don't have to go far to discover conspiracies and such.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18374.htm
"Was a Covert Attempt to Bomb Iran with Nuclear Weapons foiled by a Military Leak?"
Beyond the conspiracy, the part that might further interest your readers!
"there have been reports of billion dollar investments in high risk stock options in both Europe and the U.S. that would only be profitable if a dramatic collapse of the stock market were to occur before September 21." - Coincidence?
Dear wds020807, interesting enough.
THanks for shareing it with us.
We are not going to be moved buy rumors though, we have our own conspriracy detectors, they are called pressure gages(: :).
Kidding of course. Thanks for the info.
Good Trading
Boris and readers:
"Was a Covert Attempt to Bomb Iran with Nuclear Weapons foiled by a Military Leak?"
I should have qualified - I do not subscribe to this conspiracy - although, would not surprise me! Just
withholding judgement.
Hi Boris,
Resistance:
13428
2601 DIVE MODE
1483
Support:
13399
2588.5
1473.5
Projected LOWS this Week:
13232
2569.6
1461.8
HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
Bungie Ben will dissapoint.
Jim
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