Gold Update, Gold needs to be careful here
O RUT 769.93 - 795.400
N SPX 1511.76 - 1537.87 ( Dave, SO Correct)
N QQQQ 50.56 - 50.11
O GLD 69.80 - 70.50
O TSX
BOY JPY IS ON LEASH, these couple days. You be the judge, could not they do this before. There goes manufactured Crisis!
10: 44 ET $RUT CAN BE SHORTED with 820. stop. I am not doing it though same for INDU 13844 stop
So that you know my hesitation comes from... The day after very strong Tuesday is seldom a lasting short as the Thursday after usually( 60-70% of times, depending on the size of Tue move.) makes higher high than the Tuesday itself...
If I did not respond, give me some time(: :)
11:20 hitting high limit SPX, one may want to sell Q buy QID, not following myself, no more than 7-10c stop above top
37 comments:
Dear Boris, SPX limits are off. Daveo
Question ?
Is anyone going short here? Seems as if Ben has twice hammered the shorts and there are probably not many left.
Old John
Dear John,
Short is the hardest game to play, When the right moement comes. People will speak.
It is not all the times that that feeling exists or should exits.
You are right about bernanke though.
That was the idea.
To create the cirsis env. And then let the brokers banks bang the market for profits.
Did you see the "EQUITY GAINS" in LEHMANS Statement.
What do you thin it is.
It is the moneys made by trading against PUBLIC... ha...
Shorting is not easy business indeed.
Fact that we manage to do it well speaks volumes about the discipline.
GOod Trading
Bought SRS few min. ago
What to do with your money? I should have bought gold stocks when Boris said so. I foolishly believed FED would defend dollar. But buying gold stocks now is chasing a hot market. I'm basically flat on the year, making money on the gauges, but occasionally getting stuck with losers like my (thankfully) partial short yesterday. Of course, 3% on being even partially short is painful.
Boris,
I will be patient.
Old John
Czman,
I am fairly new on the board and was not here for the Gold recommendation. I just follow the guages and have done great. It is even hard for patient me to be patient.
Old John
The ISEE is very negative at 211. We should start selling off this afternoon. I have Boris's gages and my fingers crossed.
Boris,
thanks for the explanation.
Old John
I have only one comment and I believe it follows Boris' advice:
Please be very careful in shorting. A lot of managers were caught on the wrong side of this move. The quarter ends next week.
That said, I'm sure the market will fall just to prove me wrong.
John B
The q's just made a double top if it is a top.
BEAR Sterns and Lehman taking a dive
Read this:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070919/debt_limit.html?.v=3
Paulsen and the SOPITALISTS just won't quit. They've inflated so much this year that they ran out of room. Gotta raise the limit to keep killing the dollar! Congress is a bunch of pimps and will comply...
RENT HERE...
Hi Boris, it's been awhile since I posted on this blog.
As you can see by now.. housing stock took a dive and so did most mortgage company (CFC). The worst is yet to come.... I'd go and buy physical gold and invest internationally and get into FOREX to protect your savings...
You all know this about 1 ago. the value of the USD will be cut in 1/2.
Good trading
FXY looks like too much of a good deal below 86.
Dear Rent,
Welcome back.
I must admit, that I did not believe that the whole situation with housing will be so bad.
But do not forget, we use/used it as a trading vehicle.
We actully made 9% in NFI, while the mortgage guys were collapsing and we made 5-6 % in two days trading DHI and LEN.
Now that is not bad, cause we are swingers.
Of, course, your perception of state of real estate ( so, was Dear Greenie's) was much better than mine. As this did not prevent me personally to make money there.
Now about currency and GOLD, well who was even close to our precision about that . Nobody, Record is ther at Safehaven.com and at B&C .
So, Yes, agree 100% with your stand on this issue, but would be careful with GOLD after December( will explain soon).
Good Trading Dear Rent.
Dear LagScrew/Blaine/Waldo/Hopper,
Appreciate your notes.
AH... SOPTIALISTS WILL BE SOPITALISTS.
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
Being in California, I can tell you that the level of insanity with real estate is something that I never witnessed in life....and this is in comparison with three bubbles I witnessed in my short life (high-Tc among physicists, internet and real estate).
Let us see, how the other extreme develops.
Greenie
Dear Greenie,
May we live in interesting times, that is a CHINES curse confered upon us.
Good Trading
Hi Boris, don't think we will see a good shorting opportunity until after optX Friday. But, one would think they would like to throw a scare in all those Calls that are now deep in the money. Maybe later today/tomorrow.
Dear Sqroot,
at 40.67 QID looked like a good long and QQQQ short today.
I could not follow, I am not sure if anybody did.
Thanks for the comments.
Good Trading
I did Boris, excellent call again.
Good For you Dear Waldo,
Taking charge is what we need to learn all.
GOod Trading
Fed funds rate down, 10 year treasury rate up. not a good omen for the trillion dollars in mortgage re-sets within the next year. and if U.S. bails out the mortgage bag holders further, gold and non-dollar assets will benefit further.
Boris,
I should have shorted, but this is like waiting for a bus, another one will be coming.
Old John
Dear John,
That is a good spirit.
I will discuss with you how to prepare, whwne we have time. And What to watch for.
You will be graduating soon. SO, the big boy will need big boy instructions.
Good Trading
Boris,
thanks
Old John
UNLEASH THAT YEN, iT'S BEEN TIED UP TOO LONG.
by Michael Swanson:
Look the Fed saved the stock market from crashing on August 16th by intervention. The move down in July was the first act of a financial crisis - and normally those unfold in two stages. The first being when people realize there is a big problem causing huge frightening losses the extent of which are unknown and are forcing institutional investors to selling due to margin calls and redemptions.
The second act is when the market finds out how big the losses are and who has them. This is what happened in 1998. The market fell hard in August of that year due to turmoil in the international bond market, bounced, in September, and then dropped hard again to form a double bottom when the Long-Term Capital hedge fund blew up.
...it is incredibly reckless and dangerous on the part of the Federal Reserve. It is almost insane.
...he is sending a message...
I can think of only two reasons:
1)The problems in the mortgage markets are worse than we know and the entire banking system is bankrupt.
2)Ben Bernanke is obsessed that the Fed caused the Great Depression, because it didn't lower interest rates fast enough. He's an academic who is putting the theories he learned as a young man to use.
Frank Barbera writes: A shocking, potentially reckless move.
Billionaire Jim Rogers says:
"Every time the Fed turns around to save its friends on Wall Street, it makes the situation worse if Bernanke starts running those printing presses even faster than he's doing already, yes we are going to have a serious recession. The dollar's going to collapse, the bond market's going to collapse. There's going to be a lot of problems in the U.S."
Hi all,
I see alot of reversal candles today. Looks like distribution. I still have Oct 18 (Google's earnings day) circled as a likely top. Right now, off of the August lows, the market is in an Elliot 3rd wave of what should be the final rally of the market. Stay tuned. We'll see how the waves evolve. I'm watching for Oct 3rd (34th trading/fib day from August low) to be a possible top of wave 3. Probably a good hard pullback into wave 4 to sell a few more puts for the thieves, and then a rally into Oct options expiry. This is speculative, but is what I am watching for until proven incorrect.
regards,
Mark
Grandich calls short on Market....
From the desk of Peter Grandich
September 19, 2007 - 1:30 pm
Further to this morning's alert (http://www.grandich.com/docs/alert_09-19-07.pdf), I have subsequently shorted the U.S. Stock Market via the following two Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs):
SDS - $50.34 - this is a bet on the S&P 500 going lower with 2X leverage
QID - $40.84 - this is a bet on the NASDAQ 100 going lower with a 2X leverage
If he would have been reading the NRS thread he could have gotten a jump on this.
Dear Sqroot/Markd
Appreciatey your postings. Very intiersting outlook Mark.
Good Trading
Dear LagScrew, looks like MR. Grandich was 15 cents after us in QID Long.
GOod Trading
Boris
your still #1
Dear LagScrew, I would not know if I am #1 or #2 or whatever.
Thanks to you I do know...(: :)
Good Trading.
Dear LagScrew/Readers,
WHen I said "thaks to you " I meant everybody.
Good Trading.
Nice hammer candle on the vix on the 60 minute chart, also tight ppo and adx which confirms Boris's call only it's a day late.
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