Dear Readers, One more beautiful weekend to air all our concerns, advice or just joy of listening to others opinions. I wonder, can anyone comment on the question. Are we heading into recession, and when?
You see here Gold Oscillator, It is clear that as the long term average ( CYAN ) line ran into almost 70 the Gold was flashing a Screaming Buy Me Signal. Still I did bot believe that it would go that strong... Well market makes you believer. While the move is not done, do not run and buy this one now.
for explanations of charts search "ChartReading"
for explanations of limits search "LimitsReading"
For Investors, We recommended Few Stocks , TEG/GAS/ACAS/GLAD/C/WFC(only 4-5% in each pair), and we still recommend to keep them. Two of those LEN/DHI have been stopped out. The rest have no stops and are for keepers.
Now, Remember, YOU CAN ASK PROSPECTS FOR ANY STOCKS/BONDS/SECURITIES here. Do not Be Bashful.
Somebody here said:
1) June/July break last chance to buy GOLD, Golden...
2) Sept $US starts to go down, just broke 15 year low...
3) Sell Stocks July,buy August till Sep ~18, Yet, Golden...
4) BONDS 5,25 June ,4.25(2008) Bought June, Golden...
See the $US chart. There Goes Our Purchasing Power, while WALL STREET
wants to be bailed out so that they can get $10,000000.00 Bonuses. Even in FIAT this is a hack of lot of wealth( considering they promptly translate them into the SWISS FRANK or GOLD)!
WALL STREET WELFARE ANYONE?
You GUYS/GIRLS out there wanted to be elected, do you hear the cry of the citizenry. Do you hear Single Mother Moaning In Pain, do you hear Senior Citizen Stomach Growling , do you hear Malnutritioned Child getting more so, do you hear Young Couple Not Coping. Stop Bailout , Stop taking bribes( sorry contributions, so rude of me). Hear our people, for GODS sake hear them!
Dear Mr. Bernanke, you are GODS man or so you claim. Do what is right go on the peoples side, save their savings. Fortify their Goodness Not the Gambling Instincts. Make the work/earning meaningful without constant depreciation. For once be a on the right side, before our society loses hope and god really gets down hard on all of us.
What power is governing me? To say all of these things after mastering the markets like few have. I do not know, but thanks GOD it is in there...
Well then here it is. If the authorities do not listen. If the continue to destroy our life's savings. Here is what I suggest. I can not save everybody, not that powerful, but I can save those that read this blog. Defeat your enemy "kill your killer, before he does" that is what Bible says. I have told you In July to buy GOLD to protect yourself. Wait for next opportunity to buy the metal. Deny the authorities to destroy you, by preempting them.
Perhaps that was the reason Almighty wanted me to learn markets well. So, that I can save as many souls as I can from governmental destruction.
One more chart, Look at Uraniums(More YELLOW brother of GOLD), they have been Wahsed via bleechers! and that is undestatement. Like Builders. The OscillatorL visited 80's... Ha... I do not know about you, but I am putting some money there on the next buy.
58 comments:
Hi Boris, hope you get some rest this weekend. Looks like another exciting week coming up since everyone will be back from there hampton vacation homes. Do you still have an up bias for the markets until your sept date that you had posted earlier? Also I'm a wine maker at home since I retired and I would love to send you a bottle or two if you drink wine. I make small batches of many flavors. It would be a token of appreciation for all the hard work you do for the small trader and investor.
http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2007/09/moral-hazard.html
Dear Boris, I thought you may like the above blog article. He coined a word 'supercapitalism' to describe the current practice, but your 'sopitalism' sounds cuter :)
Best, G.
Dear Waldo,
Our "October 21 Again" outlook is the blueprint , until the low of August is broken or we have reached the Sep 19 or thereabouts. After that we make another assesment of things. I looked at the market drop yesterday and believed that there was enough damage there to create the high buy pressure. As the coming charts will show, that did not exactly happen, the buy pressure has grown , but not to the extent I hoped. Now that could change very quickly one day of no change even could put the things where the signals will fall in place for BUY. Now, I took a very small QQQQ long position and it may not work out, at least , immediately. But the thing is , imagine you have 100000 to invest and you invest 5000 and market drops 15%. Is it the time to cry or time to rejoy.
Well, It is time to jump from joy. Cause, we can now use rest of the 95000 to buy very cheap stocks... HA, this gives you another view how to build a long term portfolio even as you think that you are a trader.
My outlook has not changed. Not Yet.
Seperate answer about wine.
Good Trading
Dear Greene, Thanks for the blog
Good Trading
Boris and all,
Looking over the charts of the major indexes after fridays action, I have to admit the structure right now doesn't look too bullish...the $compq and $ndx are just about down 62% from the 9/4/07 high, and I look at them and ask, structurally, could they be higher in a week and a half then they are now? This currently looks difficult because this correction is deeper in percentage terms then the correction that ended 8/28/07..In an "up" scenerio the corrections should be shallower until, and after, the top is reached..I think it's possible we may have already seen the highs on most of the idexes for the up-wave. Although one method of fibonacci projection gives me higher targets, structurally I am thinking this may not really happen...a lot will depend on what we see in the way of a rally, when the next rally finally materialises..If it's weak then we may have seen the "B" wave top already...Another point is that volume on friday was heavier to the downside and many of the daily charts show it as a gap down..This actually looks like some kind of breakdown...I am waiting to see how Boris's charts look, as to how close we might be to a rally as I suspect the end of the next rally will just carry us part way back up the right flank of the current wave, and will be an immediate shorting opportunity when it fails....
Dear Mark, Charts are coming. They are not as good as I have anticipated Friday.
Now that could change in a day, but it could worsen/continue in a day as well.
Summation is looks like can go any way. Considering last signal was a sell, I can only hope that action on the downside is none or contained, but any continuation here would make the 19-20 rally lower and crash even more likely.
Good Trading
Dear Waldo,
I needed few more minutes to talk about wine, so no I have it.
You see my GranMathoer, I may have mentioned this, was running and "underground" restaurant in the USSR/GEORGIA.
Now this underground/cosher restaurant was frequently visited by COMMUNIST aparatchiks. Even they understood that the best food and wine can only be found at "Esthers" Name of My Grandma. Yes the same people who were supposed to arrest her for Illegal activities( owning private restaurant).
Now, the wine, we used to make wines for thousands of tables a year, that is how many guests used to come to Gma's house.
I used to help making it, yes squeezing it and fermenting it etc and than tasting it fro maintenance.
No you can imagine I was found drunk few times.
I do not this for a long time now, but as a Young person I was fascinated by wines...
That is all she wrote....
I do not know how you want me to receive this wine, but I would love to taste, some of it and give you an expert opinion(: :).
It may be a good Idea to wait untill I wisit the states ( where are you located?).
Who knows. In any case if you would like to coordinate a small bottle or two, write to me at bchikvash@aol.com
THanks Dear Waldo, you do not need to do that, then again if it is good, we may have a business opportunity there(: :)
Thanks again My Dear Friend.
Good Trading
Boris,
One other quick point showing up....looking at 60 minute $NDX/$SPX ratio shows a bit of a bottom trying to form there at the end of the day Friday...being that the $NDX and $COMPQ are at their 62% retrace and the Nasdaq isn't suffering the Sub-Prime issues and historically this Index ratio has had some success predicting tops and bottoms, and have some positive
divergence on hourly, we _might_ see a bounce monday, but it may be one we'll all want to fade and possibly short when it fails...this potential short term bottom has some additional support from high $vxn and $trin numbers...but there is a lot of negative divergences on daily charts, so I don't expect it to hold if it happens...
Have a good weekend,
Mark
Hello Boris,
Could you please give me your opinion on Apple (AAPL). In Elliot wave terms I believe it is in a fifth wave of a fifth wave but is inconclusive to me if it has a higher high left in it due to the many forms that a wave may unfold.
I am only looking to short it at a low risk spot if such a point will still occur.
Thank you in advance.
Mark
Hi Boris,
What's your outlook on the All Ords (XAO)?
Dear Jebuskrite, Good To hear From you.
I think the outline of XOA is the same as the world stocks markets ( timeline , I mean). The strong support area(initial ) is at 5150 and 5000. The upward attraction point lies around 6660.
It seems to me that XAO may do a bit better than US indices due to more exposure to minerals and precious metals ( till December). After that XAO may actually go faster down if and when US goes down, as I think the ENERGY/MInerals game will be ending for a while.
GOod Trading
Dear Mark P,
I see the following Upward attraction points for AAPL,158,167 and 207, 217, will it get there? Here is what I say. Our outlook "October 21 Again" ( search), calls for the markets to keep upward bias into Sept 18 or so. After that there is a fork, it could go screaming up or it could crash into Oct 21. We will see that road better when we get there.
If the "GOLD" line(in that chart) is what is followed by markets they will explode on the upside and AAPL will probabily reach the first and maybe even second band of attractions. If the "White" crash line is followed watch out below, especially after the break of August Low.
I am not very good at Elliot Waves, I would prefer others to come and answer you in terms of the EW analysis, but that is my outlook on AAPL. If/When this stock goes down the first Yearly support does not come till 66 ( OUTCH). I would not like a black long monthly candle down this month( that is how it looks so far).
GOod Trading Dear Mark
Hi Boris,
In Elliot wave, A stock will always correct to its previous 4th wave low of a lesser degree. In the case of AAPL, The August lows held at the June low (which was a 4th wave of a 3rd wave of the primary fifth wave). Ultimately AAPL will correct back to the primary 4th wave low of 50 from last summer.
Thank you for your thoughts.
Mark P
Dear Mark P.
Well, that would get us close to the second and third support band for this year which is at 44-57. Interesting. Some of these numbers will change next Year though.
GOod Trading
G’day Boris. As far as the recession question is concerned, John Williams at http://www.shadowstats.com assesses that a recession has been in place for some time. He reconstructs official data to account for changes over the years in methodology & for the manipulation of statistics such as the business birth/death (creation/going out of business) model used to massage employment stats. For example, Williams does not have his weekend update out yet, but I have seen elsewhere that Friday’s figures showing a reduction of 4,000 in employment would have been a heck of a lot worse without the addition via the birth/death model of 100,000 jobs allegedly estimated to have been created during the month.
Shadowstats is worth a visit because there is some good info available to non-subscribers: click on the “alternate data series page” link at top right for up-to-date charts showing money supply, GDP growth and inflation. It’s also worth reading the story of how Williams came to be doing what he does.
Going back to the birth/death model for a moment: one would think this info is basic to understanding the figures and should be part of media coverage – all media, but particularly specialists such as Reuters and Bloomberg. It is not.
Another failing of media coverage is the way that the constant (and negative) revisions of official data are glossed over. For example, of Friday’s non-farm payroll announcement, Reuters said: “In addition to the August job losses, the Labor Department revised down its estimates for hiring in June and July by a total of 81,000. It said 68,000 jobs were added in July rather than 92,000 and 69,000 in June instead of 126,000.”
So even according to the dodgy official figures, what was being announced on Friday was the disappearance of 85,000 jobs, not 4,000. Shouldn’t this have been highlighted, rather than buried on the 2nd or 3rd page?
Also from Reuters: “Job losses in August were concentrated in the goods-producing sector. A whopping 46,000 manufacturing jobs were cut, the most since an 86,000-job cut in July 2003. Construction businesses shed another 22,000 jobs, up from 14,000 that were lost in July.
“Service industries added 60,000 jobs in August.”
Somehow, I find those 60,000 service jobs hard to believe.
Another point: the official figures do not account for the illegal immigrants who as I understand it have constituted a large part – perhaps the major part – of the building industry workforce. Many, many more jobs have disappeared in the building industry than will ever show up in the official stats. This construction employment damage appearing now is very much a seriously lagging indicator.
US recession when? It is already here.
...
PS: I bet Robert Reich prefers not to think too much about Ali Baba and his wife!
Regards
Malcolm
Dear Malcolm,
I have stopped , for a long time to watch the numbers that are heavily maniplated(able). So, I am going to shut up and listen to Mr willimas sais about it, but still I have my take on this, which is different.
Regardless of how we came to these numbers(employment data I mean), I think they have been manufactured this month especially for one purpose to give Mr Bernanke MORAL escape ( ladder to come down from his inflation fighter tree) and lower the rates, which WALL STREET WELFARE is claimoring for.
That is how bad it is my friend.
There is nobody left on wasll street that is questioning the need for lowering FED funds rate ( bailing out the WALL STREET). In fact more and more call for 0.5-1 reduction. GETIT how and why employmnet numbers seem to paint a bit( understatement) more dismal picture than other indicators?
As simple as that.
Good Trading
Dear Boris
If you have time your thoughts on RIMM please.
if it closes below 80 on this months expiration Sept. 20 i do well.
was thinking i had to bail out until friday when it went down to close at 80.48, a half point from being in the money, for my position.
As always thanks for all you do here Boris, and wonderful contributions from the "staff"
jeffrey
Dear Jeffrey, Thanks for your kind words from all friends of this blog. 85 high was a first class resistance( attraction point for this stock RIMM). It is a fourht Attraction level allowed for this YEAR, only 2% of stocks ever make being these kind of levles... Ha...
Ok the only higher levels left are 96 and 106, which are far in time and space from here.
First low attraction point is 31.50( OUTCH, not probable).
RIMM had an exahustion bar 4 days ago at the top and is now paining a symmetic M pattern. This pattern has the support right at this level of 48 +- 25c. All that I said about the general market QQQQ see the chart, may be directly translated to this stock. Considering your optins are fast losing the time premium, It may have been wise to dump( at least part) Friday, but I would give a reasonable chance of lower move Monday or at least hitting the low limit after the open and then you may want to decide what to do.
Good Trading Dear Jeffrey and we appreciate your contributions.
Dear Boris and all
interesting:
Sept. 9 story-- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said there is an ``underlying stability'' in the U.S. economy and officials need not always cut interest rates in response to turmoil in financial markets.
``Disruptions in financial markets can be addressed using the tools available to the Federal Reserve without necessarily having to make a shift in the overall direction of monetary policy,''
some of the financial markets may react monday morning i would think
jeffrey
Well, Dear Jeffrey, we shell watch carefully, if this counteracts the Mr Bernanke statment " we will do in our powers"....
GOod Trading
Dear Boris
thanks much. i was a little confused as it closed at 80.48 so perhaps you meant that when you said:
RIMM had an exahustion bar 4 days ago at the top and is now paining a symmetic M pattern. This pattern has the support right at this level of 48 +- 25c.
Did you mean support at 80.48 Boris, where it closed Friday rather than 48 ?
thanks again, very helpful
jeffrey
Dear Jeffrey,
Sorry, not precise the way needed.
Exact 100% symmetry move would put us at 47.79 +-25C
Good trading
Dear Jeffrey, sorry for type.
78.79. How many typo's can I make today
Good Trading
I figure you're right about the employment figure being pitched to set the scene for Bernanke to cut the Fed Funds rate, Boris. The shadowstats site of course was listed for members of the team who might be interested rather than yourself - you've got enough screens to look at already. :)
On another matter: it seems to me that at the moment the stockmarket is being manipulated to correspond to Elliott Wave counts, or at least counts that correspond to a couple of retail ones that I see.
Friday's net withdrawal of $6.25 billion, for example, played into these EW interpretations that markets are in a hard third-wave decline.
Don't know what that means for the coming week, but given that we have the advantage of your gauges we are at least alert to the possibility there's a trap being set for shorts.
Dear Malcolm,
Could very well be. This is a CASINO after all and in the CASINO the BOSS rules.
GOod Observations
I have nothing against Willims Site I like it, actually. I just think that you need to think like a conspiracist today to make sense of anything.
Good Trading again
Well here is my 2 cents worth on inflation,I live in ohio and I buy/collect from companies toys and clothes mainly for children the past few years since I was forced to retire. I do this mainly in december so kids will get something. I give this merchandise to churches to be given to the poorest of the poor and I see very long lines of people waiting for whatever is they can get for there children. I would not give my name for the first few years that I done this, but the church wanted it for some reason. Last january I received the reason when I opened a large manila envelope and started reading the letters from children and parents that received the gifts. One letter from a woman actually made me cry. When people can't survive on there own, lose there homes,and can't find a job to survive there is something wrong with our govt.This is so demeaning to people. The school that I went to is shut down and children are being taught in little trailers scattered around town instead of the state fixing the high school. Getting back to the point of inflation, our talking heads of govt. is the biggest pack of liars that was ever seen. I would like to see the mafia run our govt. because at least they wouldn't lie to you. Sorry for rambling on so.
Dear Waldo, thanks for sharing your experiences, As a Carnegie graduate, I have a soft spot for anyting from the Pen/Ohio area. I am with you brother. We are not forgotten, we are just rising. We have a power that our government never thought we have. If we put our heads together and channel energies right people will follow and the goodness will triumph. Hang in there my Dear Friend. And thanks for your presense.
Good Trading
To whom that is interested, an interesting read of weekend update at www.caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
The US is probably already in recession.SPX,maybe a small bounce,then next target 1435.
Good Trading
PB
Dear PB, thanks a lot,
Aloways appreciate your inputs.
GOod Trading
Boris,
Please take a look at the long term (10 - 20 years or so) charts of the financials, really any will do. Such as ETFs IYF or XLF, or stocks C or JPM.
I can see a 50% downside potential in these, roughly speaking.
Not necessarily all right away this week or month of course, though that could also happen.
How do TRE & RGLD, the gold royalty co's, look to you now?
Regards,
Since its the weekend some interesting facts on sq roots,but not for trading purposes,the spx tends to naturally move to these ratios.
In 1994 the spx high was 482 x rt 2 =681,the next high.Rt2 x 681 =964 the next high.The 2000 high 1553/rt2 =1097,1097/rt =776 and so on,there are also "natural trading days".
Food for thought.
PB
Dear Cobbense we will do quickly answer you question.
But I must tell you my mind is going numb.
I can not fathom this.
HOV down 87% TOL65% CTX65%
TOL is teenager again hit 18.xx last week.
Unbelievable man...
GOod trading
Dear PB, do I understand you correctly? the next natural number to gravitate to could be 1097?
Good Trading
Dear, Cobbense,
I agree that 50% will be entirely normal, that would mean JPM going down to 30, which would also be a 50% price cut.
Can not see why could not we get there. We did exactly that in 1998 and initial decline 2000 ( it was more into 2002) and 1990 was total collapse of 70%.
Brother...
I see correction In GOLDs into SEPT 18-20 and another surge. Into Dec.
GOod Trading Dear Cobbense
Boris
Sorry for the misunderstanding,the actual number was 1081 mar 22/2001,from the 2000 1553 high,no guarantee that number will be seen again,but 1217 is a distinct possibility.
Good trading
PB
Dear PB, I am trying to understand the logic. Please Bear with me.
I calculated 1553/sqrt(2) and I got 1098.
What have I done wrong for future low forecasting using this natural numbers?
Good Trading
Boris
Not for forecasting,1081 was the actual number out by 17 points in a 450 point drop,the next one 776 was right on.
PB
Dear Pb,
GOT IT.
The actual number was pretty close.
Now, if and when we go back down, would we are likely to hit those numbers again?
Good Trading
Boris
Its not a forecasting tool so no way to know in advance (unfortunately)but the market has a strong tendancy to bounce off these numbers and turn on natural days.Ive done a lot of research on this subject and still watch at these levels,but its not how I do my projections or time slots.
Good Trading
PB
Dear PB,
Thanks for your info.
Apreciate your acumen and contributions to the friends of this site.
I am sure someday somebody will write here that something you showed them was extremely helful in their life.
Good Trading
Boris,
Back from my retirement vacation. Read all the boards, very interesting. In my layman's view, if they lower rates again, another bubble will form somewhere else, tech, housing, whats next?
As for the dollar, my country that I fought for is becoming what was known in the 60s and 70s - a Banana Republic with semi-worthless paper used as currency. Very good for the multinational companies based in USA. But for regular folks like me? not good.
Boris
I only posted a starting point for those interested in Gann,s work,natural price levels and natural time slots are a place to start,should be obvious that rt 2 is the 45' angle, rt3 is the 60'angle and so on, Ganns 52'angle or 51.8 is actually 1.618,it was the weekend so I was just trying to spark interest in a new thread,nothing to do with daytrading,Gann angles have nothing really to do with drawing lines on a chart.
Good Trading
PB
Check out this ISEE reading---looks like if we get an up day or even flat you would not want to go long here!!!!!!
http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126&header3=true&menu0=true&link1=true
let me try again
http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126&header3=true&menu0=true&link1=true
Sorry the reference isnt working but Thursday and Friday was the highest reading since the later part of July--Investor puts and calls are way to bullish..This has worked very well in the past...all Im saying is there is now way I would go long here.
One more time
http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126&header3=true&menu0=true&link1=true
The address wont post correctly from the box down to here--Oh well
Why would anyone want to go long before 11 september? Or am I not reading the risk/ reward correctly. I realize that there is only a slim chance of an terrorist event, but ?
Dear John,
Welcome back
GOod to see you back.
There could be many questions, why would anybody go long here, but we are already long from August 17 and it has done well for us.
THe outlook of "OCtober 21 Again"
calls for the high in Sept 18 period. So these are reasons to be high. Now we/I took a small long position and already have 18c gain in QQQQ pos.
It could open gap down and wipe it out. Let us see.
One thing I have emphasized a lot fo this position to be small.
GOod Trading
Dear Lagsscrew, the same mesage As to John, for reasoning behing the long position.
Appreciate your posting.s
GOod Trading.
Dear PB,
Really appreciate you explaining the GANN aspects.
You see I am not heavy into these things.
Rightly or wrongly I think I have something ( market internals ) and my own limits that make me somewhat satisfied not to follow too many other things,
But your view of things is definitely valid and important so is the JD's that is why I appreciate your postings
GOod Trading
Dear Boris,
You have understood "None fears God but those of His servants that are possessed of knowledge." and "...they ate and ate, entire worlds were devoured, and still they asked, is there any more?" (from the Mathnawi [Koran in poetry] R.A. Nicholson 1930).
Mr Shuffle has shuffled away his soul and Mr "I have God's shoulder to cry on..." has killed his. There is no hope for their kind nor for those who selfishly over-populate the planet.
Good trading.
Boris,
Thank you for the answer. I closed my long position when I went on vacation ( no computer).
Old John
Dear AaaaaaUM, so well said,
That is perhaps, why the only recourse we have is fight them, by preempting them in their dark deals.
Good Trading Brother.
Dear JOhn,
GOod To see you back.
Good Trading
Dear Boris, please let us mere mortals know when the yellow pressure oscillator (Uranuim/Gold) reaches 1.
GOod trading.
Dear Aaaaaaum, I will, It usually has two ways to do it. EIther going up strong or going down not so strong.
Just so that you can get some sense of it as well.
Good Trading
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