O RUT 769.93 - 795.400
N SPX 1476.26(72.26,74.65) - 1483.27
N QQQQ 48.76 - 49.26
O GLD 69.80 - 70.50
O TSX
Normal Volatility, noticed
10:37 ET GOld Dangerous at 715.50 area, dive through or explosion? or just meandering some more?
11:04 ET what we see is what is suggested by pressure Oscillators, Q's are much more under pressure than SPX
Uranium Update, Sorry to tell you... MGA is up another 9%, I told you to sell with 20% gain. Well now it would have been up 30%, But, remember rule #2 and you are keeping free MGA and LAM certificates with Boris & Company engraved on it. Right?
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris, Hi Jim,
Resistance:13428 2601 DIVE MODE 1483 Support:13399 2588.5 1473.5
Projected LOWS this Week:13232 2569.6 1461.8
HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
Bungie Ben will dissapoint.
Jim
9/17/2007 6:45 AM
Jim Taylor, JD said...
NAZ at Double Resistance:50 DMA 2590.4 2588.5 Bounce Fizzles at 10:37 PDTJim
9/17/2007 10:17 AM
Jim Taylor, JD said...
NAZ at Double Resistance:50 DMA 2590.4 2588.5 Bounce Fizzles at 10:37 PDTJim
9/17/2007 10:17 AM
37 comments:
Good morning Boris,
Is your range for $SPX correct...seems really tight.
Good Luck
John B
Dear John,
Thanks,
SPX looks correct it was thw Q's that I have gotten wrong readings for, initially, but now corrected.
Good To hear from you Dear Johb B.
GOod Trading
Dear Boris, since your weekend topic was banks, the northern rock bank fell 34 percent in england on mondays trading. They said they had thousands of people wanting to withdraw there money. Northern Rock is England's 5th largest bank.
Dear Waldo,
Thanks for the info.
We have anticipated all that buy our "brutish death of british pound" (: :).
I guess these rock are rally rocks, when they fall, they fall haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaard...
Good Trading
Sold some TWM --short more comfortable now
Boris looks like we went thru your levels--do you have another set?
Dear LagScrew, see the update in the post LIMITS
Good Trading
Boris,
On another blog, someone posted a spreadsheet that purports to calculate a market crash happening on 9/19.
I probably cannot post the spreadsheet here, but this is the link.
http://gummy-stuff.org/crash.htm
Also, an explanation is at
http://gummy-stuff.org/Wave-Theory-3.htm
Just thought you may be interested.
John B
Dear John B,
We shell look.
Thanks for the info.
Please do not hesitate to express you opinions about this or any other "crash" postings
Good Trading
I'm not a big believer in predicting crashes. I believe that are such a seven sigma event that they are by definition unpredictable.
Instead, I just focus on estimated ranges for a certain time span...buy at support and sell at resistance.
John B
Dear John B/Readers,
To make a long story short, one can predict crash, by writing down some formula and if the oscillations indeed become frequent and violent the crash may happen. Well, We are not using any fromulas and oscilations to predict crash, We are just pointing out the times where the crashes can happen, but do not have to happen.
It is intuitively clear that if oscillations in some physical body get so stremg as to rip the body apart, one is going to experience a crash...
Well, Ok you do not need any of this, just watch the Gages and identify crashes big and small as they pass by.
You can use formula and lose the shirt too. By imagining a crash in every corner.
Good Trading
Boris, we are not at shorting opportunity yet are we? thank you. I am just now starting to understand gages but not yet sure how to take them. Still relying on you to hold my hand a little longer.
Dear Waldo, there is a shorting opportunity, but nothing that meets my criteria for low risk/reward entry.
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
Would the Yen (FXY) be something to consider soon?
NAZ at Double Resistance:
50 DMA 2590.4
2588.5
Bounce Fizzles at 10:37 PDT
Jim
Dear Hopper,
I think it will show if/when the next strong downturn comes, that may not be far.
Stay tuned.
Good Trading
From another blog
The run on Northern Rock continues. Alliance and Leicester (another uk bank) lost 31% share value today. Not a run on this one yet but ....... And after that bradford and bingley which lost 12.75% today.
Watch Santander who are still offering 5x income with no proof in the UK and HBOS who don't feel right but I can't put my finger on anything other than to say alarm bells ring for me.
Dear LagScrew, Appreciate the info.
Thanks a lot.
Good Trading
Dear Boris and Readers,
Another interested article to look at that prove your, Boris, chart.
"someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the options expire on Sept. 21."
file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Compaq_Owner/Desktop/$4.5%20billion%20options%20bet.htm
Alexander
Sorry,
The link is wrong above.
To Read the article please go here http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/business090407.htm
Alexander
Dear ALexander,
Thanks a lot.
Good Trading
Alexander, Boris,
This story has been going around for weeks. These trades were placed in late August and it appears they were made by large entities who already owned substantial long positions in the SPY/SPX. Therefore, they were most likely hedges. Someone wanted to sell a lot during the panic in August, but to prevent a market crash they locked in their "sale" at that time by entering those futures and options positions. Their SPY will therefore be called away at expiration. And the sold futures will simply be delivered from their existing inventory of SPX.
If a terrorist attack were really to happen, I seriously doubt we would know about it in the markets.
Or perhaps the potential crash event already happened? There was a lot of funny stuff going on with Israel/Syria/N. Korea in early September that could have easily escalated. Not to mention a U.S. B-52 landing in Louisiana with 5 active nukes... A lot of "events" may have been thwarted...
With all due respect..
I've been reading this kind of thing over and over again re "massive put options", due on quadruple witching Friday.
It seems like a "massive", unsubstantiated internet rumor because no one has proferred a single shred of evidence so far.
These kinds of articles are not proof, in case anyone hasn't noticed.
If anything, it's an urban myth designed to somehow agitate the markets, because everyone and his dog is aware of the supposed existence of these puts.
I'm not saying it isn't true. i only ask for some documentation, etc, U understand.
rgrds and gd trading always
Hello Boris:
i know U rely on your gauges and your energy functions, which i think is a sensible strategy (obviously, because i have an idea of your successful trades the past year or so i been coming to your blog),
but for the benefit of interested readers, i have found a more professional explanation for unusual options activity seen recently.
i myself believe in some conspiracies, and never rule out possibilities of manipulation because i trust my realistic perspective on human nature.
However, i just want to share what i've found regarding this issue.
cheers
Shalom Boris and all
i thot this was worth posting:
>>Today was the sixth market day in a row that volume contracted, which is an extremely rare occurrence. ...could not find one single instance over the past 13 years (since 1994) when daily market volume contracted for six straight days. One can assume that tomorrow’s Fed meeting will result in a volume spike to end this contraction, but the days-in-a-row volume streak strongly suggests that the current rally phase is more indicative of a countertrend push rather than the start of a major rally phase.<<<
jeffrey
Dear Blaine/DXB,
I appreciate your postings. YOu see I find all sorts of things related to this very interesting. It is clear that these unusual option activities could be totally unrelated to anything like "ben Laden Trade".
Does anybody think I would waste my time even reading about it?
Absolutely correct Dear DXB, I have a tunnel vision that is what I know and I can understand, everything else well filtered by me.
At the same time, these postings correct or incorrect are indicative of "sentiment"
Good Trading
Dear Jeffrey, thanks, and very interesting indeed.
Good Trading
Boris,
Back to the banks,
Everyone has surely heard of the Northern Rock debacle in the UK, just a reminder - it is not an ordinary bank, rather primarily a specialized, agressive and highly leveraged mortgage lender - and as such it seems to me to be dead meat already, and the vultures are circling.
What worries me more is the Swedish banks, on no news that I have seen Swedbank gapped down and stayed down, and also SE Banken & Nordea look to be breaking down further.
My guess can only be that this is related to the Baltic real estate markets more than to any locally Swedish problems, but in any case it will be interesting to find out eventually what the problems were.
Anecdotally, the Latvian banks have apparently stopped all lending for land plots, leaving those speculators stranded, and recently two real estate brokers were apparently contract murdered here.
Regards,
New article on Dagens industri, essentially, Sweden does not (yet anyway) have any credit problems of its own, but is none the less being affected by the credit problems from the rest of the world, since the banks do a lot of their financing outside of Sweden.
Interbank rates are now at the same level as in the euro countries, and for example mortgage rates are being pressured up as a result. Swedbank has been hardest hit as it does more of its financing outside of Sweden than the others.
rumour of emergency ECB meeting, heard previously somewhere a rumour that the US FED and the ECB might lower rates equally & simutaneously, this to prevent a run on the US$
Now is probably not the best time to place big unhedged directional bets on anything.
Dear Cobbense,
Thanks for the update.
Are RUSSIANS coming back?
USA may have to throw bone to RUSSIA to get them to keep IRANIANS dreaming about NUCLEAR ambitions.
Perhaps the USA just give BALTICS back to RUSSIA?
Then the land will really be worth ZERO
Good Trading
Boris,
Heh! I hardly think the Russians would want the Baltic countries at present, too many problems for no reason, they can get what they want anyway.
The new/old Russians are by the way apparently largely responsible for some of the real estate bubble, buying exclusive properties in the (familiar from sovjet times) resort town of Jurmala outside of Riga at just any price, for example.
Regards,
Dear Cobbense,
RUSSIANS will do anything to get the NATO/USA from setteling there forever,
Since when RUSSIANS were bashful about this(: :)
Interesting info about RIGA and "BURBS"
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
At Resistance:
13515
2601
jim
Hi Boris,
Short at 2679
Trend Reversal for DOW by 09:45 PDT
Dow Resistance 13866
Support 13807
Jim
Hi Boris,
At Resistance:
13807
2666
SHORT until 11:22 PDT
Jim
Hi Boris,
With the DOW up 1360 points above the low of Aug. 17, a PULLBACK began Friday at 09:45 PDT as the DOW crested abve R at 13866. At the same time the NAZ approached R at 2679. The S&P 500 did the same at R 1530.5
Bungie Ben will soon be criticized for acting too aggresively
Gold is up 14.6% and Silver is up 21% since August 16.
Projected Highs this week:
13848.5
2677
1532.5
Projected Lows:
13591
2623
1498.8
Have a Nice Weekend.
Jim
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