Dear Readers, Limits For Today.
QQQQ 43.80 - 44.37
(44.47 maybe the top for today)Market has higher numbers in mind 44.61, 44.77
GLD 66.80 - 67.32
GOLD/SILVER honor the cycles. They are down into 4/12. More downside potential exists into the end of April, but so does the upside, Play by short term rules, cause the sideways moves itno June are entirely possible.
USO 49.96 - 50.92 ( Unclear For Now)
GG 25.52 - 25.90
Please Notice, the carry-trade currencies CHF and JPY appear on the move(higher, again). They have the power to break all markets. Be careful now.
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Short DOW at 12544 112 squared.
Boris... 12544 timed 44.61 QQQQ ...Boris
NAZ resistance +19.5
S&P " +6.5
Last Spike up due at 11:22:30 PDT
Jim
Good Trading
28 comments:
good morning boris. i would value your comment on whether the carry currencies' strength will affect the US$ price of oil. thanks.
What a crazy day. Bad news is good news. I guess the market will rally on any slim hope of a rate cut.
Dear Malcolmm, JPY and CHF rising is not good for anything in this world except for those currencies themselves and assets denominated in those currencies. The question is are we going to get a jolt, a fast move, that could break all markets at once. OIL/STOCKS/METALS etc. There will no exception. So, far the rise may look orderly, but a quick jump for few dsays will be dejavu again. Good Trading.
Dear Rent, the sentiment in the market is still not bad enough for the market to tank. We wrote about this. So, we will perk up until the put sellers cool down. We already said that.
Good Trading
Hi Boris. I would think that the market would grind lower down. Like a controlled fall. I was expecting a flat to slightly neg day. But the market is up slightly so maybe that fits into the game plan.
But looking at the homebuilder rally, it looks like a short squeeze play and waiting to short these guys again. Good Trading!
Dear Rent, My take on the market has been announced and unchanged... I expect the market to keep going higher, sideways until the FED is so disgusted with the Dollar Decline that it does something to support it in deads not in talk. IE, actually raise rates? to defend the Dollar, or the market does it for him as his jobouning can be ignored only at the risk of losing money in BONDS. Either way this forced situation will come about after the next bout of Dollar scare hits the fan. I expect that to happen in Mid May as JPY and CHF are jumping up strongly to force the market and FED to take/cause action. Until then the "mice will play". On the homebuilders, you admitted yourself that it is harder to short these guys after some of them went down 50/70% down. I mentioned few times, that I would be extremely careful shorting these unless the trades extremely short time-frame and masterfully executed. Good Trading Dear Rent.
Hi Boris.
I was wondering if it was possible for you to tell if Yamana has bottomed out today ahead of GOLD.
Thanks.
Danno
Boris. Admittedly shorting the homebuilders and lenders are not as easy as before. Gone for now are the huge down days like back in April of 2006. This is such an obvious play that others are jumping in the short side and you see these short spikes. I'm prepared for it. It is amazing these stocks spiking up so fast despite decaying profits.
Good Trading!
Dear Dano, Yamana has stong resistance ( yearly) points 15.92, 17.38. So, there is a room ( points even higher). On a daily bases we have what looks like a upword slanting W, with the bottom of today formeing the right lower side. So, while I am not sure if Yamana bottomed, it has a good trade setup with the low of today being the support stop loss. Wahtching it intraday may allow even finer tuning of entry exit. Good Luck, whateve you do with this. Good Trading
Dear Danno, let me be clear. You/nobody can afford to be calas with this stock. A quick drop below today's low and 14.21 could point to a very painful 9.00... So, You know what to do. GOod Trading
Dear Rent, I have no doubt your resourcefulness. I am sure you, from all people, know exactly what you are doing. I am here to provide "devile" on the other side. So that you get better practice with what you already know. GOod Trading
CEO & President of CFC suddenly resigned and no news release. Tick... Tick...Boom! It's only a matter of time.
Just checked the put/call volumes -Equity (dumb $) = .7, Index (smart $) = 1.8 and climbing. Index still buying puts like crazy. But looking at the market now - whose smart? Will the big boys suddenly pull the rug out?
CEO of CFC did not even leave a note saying that he's leaving to spend more time with his family or even pursue personal interests a la ENRON. Very interested in the market reaction when this news is officially released. I bet the management team over at CFC is scrambling.. Oh man, I wish I could see it.
BTW.. short on CFC. Alt-A and subprime dead. The only game in town is prime now.
Short DOW at 12544 112 squared.
NAZ resistance +19.5
S&P " +6.5
Last Spike up due at 11:22:30 PDT
Jim
Good grief rent, you're kidding. That guy has been dumping shares and exercising options like mad for the last 2 years. Unbelievable.
Jim Taylor
You wouldn't happen to be related to Robert Taylor of TaylorTrends would you?
This Robert Taylor seems to have a similar educational background to you Boris.
Have you heard of him? just curious.
Danno
Dear Danno, Sorry I have not heared of Mr Taylor. But I will take a look. What are his coordinates. Good Trading Dear Danno
Dear Rent, Are you talking about Mazzilo? Good Trading
Boris
http://www.taylortrends.com/main.html
Boris.
I'm talking about James Furash. If it was Tanzillo, I would have bought mega puts on the company.
Thanks Dear Rent.
Good Trading
Thanks Dear Danno.
If you have a sample of short term forecast, I would appreciate to see one. Seems Very intersting approach and distinct from what I do ( at least it looks like it ). Thanks Danno. GOod Trading
Sorry Boris
I am not a subcriber. I may order the book and get the free trial to satisfy my curiosity.
Yes I thought his philosophy on the "laws of gravity" follows the same principle as your "pressure guage"
Dear Danno, Thanks and Good Luck.
Dear Boris
I have some EPEX and was wondering your thoughts. Its at a level of res. now of 13.54
Thank You
Dear lagscrew this stock has done very well last month. It seems to have the perfect Elliott 5 Waves complete and could use a correction before the next leg up? On a longer term horizon, I would have for EPEX to have reached 9 before bouncing up from 12.30 level. The level of $9 is such an important number for a support, if reachced and bounced that could mean the end of decline. As it stands this 9 level is standing there, as if, inviting this stock to go there. Which may mean that after some more upside this stock is bound to make the lows at 9?. Meanwhile be cautios and use some FIB retracments before you jump in or add postions. GOod Trading
Boris
btw thanks for your reply on Yamana. You said:
Dear Danno, let me be clear. You/nobody can afford to be calas with this stock. A quick drop below today's low and 14.21 could point to a very painful 9.00... So, You know what to do. GOod Trading
I get the underlying message here. I know I've got be a quick and nimble trader here in the next few days and over the next 2 - 4 weeks of this blow-off phase.
Thanks again. Your blog has become an indispensible tool for me. Keep sharpening the iron.
Danno
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