Monday, April 23, 2007

Where are we?



Dear Readers, The market configuration has hardly changed in last few days. Mr. Market is threatening with the jump, but is not taking it ( reminds us Michael Jordan ). the reason is simple it is not ready. There are things that are bothering Mr. Market. Before it goes down it wants to make sure that very few expect it ( Jordan again!). So, it is teasing the shorts in futures and options and taking them to cleaners in price and/or in time( option decay). That is why we watch not just our Pressure gages, but sentiment and Cycles. The are close, but not 100% ready even today. Sentiment got a bit more bullish ( good for bears), but not turned yet and the Cycles allow rally all the way into mid May. As so many times, I advise to be patient. Penetration of buy pressure line via Cyan line is pointing to a short term decline, but still not the final one. QQQQ has not been able to produce significant new high for 6 months. This did not disturb the SPX and especially DOW to make new highs. As indicated, it is the $ that is going down not the US markets are going up, but how many in the main street think that way? GOLD is meandering as suggested, but do not discount volatile moves up/down into June. The time for higher moves, if any, is next 2 Weeks. See posting "GOLD FROM APRIL TO JUNE". ENERGY, as indicated is a lap dog of the market and keeps going with it ( ENERGY is 10% of the market ). Getting near to closing the curtains, CVX/XOM less than 2-3 % from top? CURRENCIES... we have been bearish on $ for... who knows how long, but advised caution recently. We are very close to $80 in Dollar index. A strong support level. With the volatility pick up in this market, the turnaround is sensed. See posting "BRUTISH DEATH of BRITISH POUND". Interest rares, as indicated are supported by the need to keep $ from falling off the cliff and capped by the need of US housing from falling off the cliff. We see a gentle up to sideways move for next few weeks. Good Trading
Note, those still short ON QQQQ, stay tuned.

2 comments:

Ivan said...

Boris,
any change regarding YEN? Is today's action confusing?
Thanks as always

boris said...

Dear Curaki, YEN like any other currencies is in the transition period. WHo knows maybe we will not see 115, but I think chances are good until mid May to see 115. Day to day will be hard as Dollar is asserting itself. I stated to Dear DXB that this week will be tough for all , but Dollar. GOod Trading