06:18 ET, Please See the Updated(Thanks Ivan) ASSET oscillators at GROUPTATION link on the right.Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of. There were some trades reported, members made purchases towards the bottom of yesterday and today. I myself have exited some of the banking stocks upon rally as I am not sure that this will be the last of BKX on the downside. If/when markets break new lows, BKX may print 60-70 as lows( so far only around 78 was the low). Gold jumped up and extended the gains, which indicates that they are not ready to go quietly. Energy did go down. So, gold is hoping that there will be no recession, just a lot of money printed. While we see 1123 as a realistic blow off target, we do not assign high probability to that, but it can happen. Those that are long should trail and/or keep taking profits as, max date for GOLD rally is Early February, while minimum could be tomorrow or 17 Jan. Dollar took a hit and we just need to monitor the Dollar Oscillator for turn up. Again, do not give high probability for new highs in EURO, but it could happen in CHF. Energy looks like is the only believer that Recession is coming(see our recession indicator at the end of this page)?
27 comments:
Has anyone read this Bloomberg article, entitled "Bears Exceed Bulls by Most in 17 Years"?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=
20601087&sid=aDxnqV5lsbx0&refer=home
This sentiment reading seems to be very extreme... And Money Market accounts are at an all-time high of $3.15 Trillion. Surely not everybody can be right about the market, at least not for a long period.
Dear Blaine,
Thanks, interesting information, both can be counted in to the bullish backet for stocks. Let us hope it works well till we get the MDS sell. Then we will rethink the rest...
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
Thanks regarding Nucor (Nue) limits.
Profitable day today.
Mark P
Dear Boris and friends,
It seems that Gold appears to have some legs behind it if you consider that the BOE and ECB didn't lower their rates yesterday ('Tricky' Trichet threatened to actually RAISE rates), while Bernanke all but guaranteed a rate cut, with the market placing a big bet on a 50 bp cut at the end of the month.
This could be a bullish situation for Gold, as it implies a weaker Dollar. However, Gold has most recently shown signs of decoupling from the Dollar, as new Investment demand are playing a larger role and are more than offsetting the impacts to its prices due to the Dollar.
We shall see if this trend continues. I believe that this has the potential to actually turn into part of a forming bubble in commodities. We're not even close to being there yet, but if we approach the inflation adjusted high of Gold back in 80 of a couple of thousand Dollars, then we would be getting close.
Basically, a large portion of the Central Bank injected liquidity will be funneled to this sector.
The Fed basically did what it had to, which is to choose the lesser of two evils for now. It will sacrifice inflation in the immediate term to stem the damage from the upcoming (or current) recession.
But it needs to be very careful, or it will run the risk of creating stagflation. Interestingly, that is also an environment that Gold does very well in.
Cheers and happy weekend!
Just wondering if you noticed the volume in IYR. Two 16 million volume days in succession. It could be short covering, but 16 million is the highest per day volume in IYR's history. Wonder if you would have any comments on that.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IYR&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t45136740871&r=8102
Hello Dear Boris....
The gold oscillators are turning up with the pinkie moving up from a pretty low level, yet gold keeps rising....Gold hasn't read the script....So what are the implications for reading this chart/indicator going forward...
Dear Xerxes,
Implications are simple, GOld is strong and more it fights the OSCILLATOR more it proves that it does not want to go down. This could happen.
I doubt though, GOLD can over come this completely withoug immediate or delayed reaction.
Just watch.
Good Trading
Dear Hajime,
IYR was severly oversold for weeks now. and it hit 62% FIB retrace and it also hit the level 3 of YEARLY attraction point for 2007. We will see what Apoints it creates in 2008 ( in couple months) but for now this together with our BBBB market status could not help but create, at least, powerful bounce.
Good Trading
Dear Hajime,
If you have EXCEL on your PC then look at the REITS oscillator as well, it is in definite BUY mode, even thought the security (IYR) may refuse to "listen" to it, at some point it will react, that point was yesterday!
Dear XERXES, this point is for you as well.
Good Trading
Dear Mark,
Welcome, Good Luck
GOod Trading
Gold Investment demand is a part of the driving force behind this move IMO. I think that speculators look at China as a major force for future demand, and some froth is created by this percieved China demand.
But then again, China is a communist country. That is fact. And Gold has always been universal currency, especially for citizens who do not trust their government. When one needs to buy their way out of a country, Gold is best vehicle for this.
Long term,,,I think this China demand for gold bullion could be a very powerful force, along with rest of world distrust for inflationary Central Bank printing press. All I am saying is that these are strange times for gold. many different factors.
Dear TIm,
Not in GOLD, not in any asset, money is made by "knowing" and/or "rationalising".
I will accept anything anybody says, but will let it go from the other side, cause it makes not bit of difference to me, why gold or soybeans are going up. To me knowing the cycles and trading, placeing order ,rightsizing and trailing is what matters after that. I like fundamentals as a story for 'children'
Adults who learned trading have better things to do with their time.
Please do not get discouraged by this, everybody should express opinions, in whatever terms they like. That is what we are here.
I just stated what it means to me.
Thanks and Good Trading
Hi Boris........watching the 15 day P/C ratio for ISEE it has almost exact pattern as your Buy pressure chart.......suggesting a possible retest (well, last two patterns 1 had a restest of lows the other penetrated lows). Just noting the almost exact confirming?) similarities of the data.
Best regards from Texas.
Hello, Dear Hamakua,
Love Texas and Texans, dissapointed with BUSH though...
For a conservative I mean...
Never mind, love all TEXAS and TEXANS.
INterstesting observations...
Thanks and Good Trading
To All...
You should watch this DAX 'scalper', its inspiring stuff.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY67amvsYE0
Dear Tim,
I want to come back and make sure you and readers understand.
I make my decisions on technical bases, but I/we all need the "sentiment" input in our work. The stories people tell here and on other blogs, in many ways, constitute the "sentiment" attitude towards, market.
Therefore, please ignore me, whwen I ignore the stories. I actually do not ignore them for one purpose, I add them up in my rear brain calculator of the sentiment... IT is there even if I do not talk abou it all the time.
That is why, nobody should feel that they must hide what their sentiment about markets is.
That is important...
Appreciate all, I empahsize, ALL contirbutions.
Good Trading
Thanks Boris, your willingness to keep an open dialogue is much appreciated.
It is one of the many reasons why I keep coming back here- there is a wealth of info here, particularly with your technical analysis.
Dear Sang,
All Readers,
Why do I emphasize the technical trading?
Fundmentals are difficult to know even for the most connected insiders... Ha... Ask The Rotchilds in London...
For this reason, we must rely, especially as traders, for the market to tell us what is going on. It "knows" all and everything, cause people express themselves by placing the Dollars at risk...
Do you really need better insider?
I say no...
For these reasons I emphasise the technical trading , which include sentiment, and risk managment methods.
These are what brings you here mostly, cause BS can be gotten a lot of other places.
I love BS like anybody else, it is nice way to kill time in between actions. But I want you to know that my biggest concern is that you do not lose money, that is why I harp at "stories should be stories", cause some people start beliving in these stories and they become prime candidates to be screwd in the market.
I do not want for this to haapen to any of my readers. Period.
SO, You may find me sometimes harsh when I notice that you maybe getting ahead of yourself.
Even if one knew "funtdmentals" they matter none from now to the top in GOLD or BOTTOM in stocks.
NONE! Period.
GOod Trading
Just for BS, Dear readers, our Treasury Secretary , President and FED chairman all said only very recently that "fundamentals" of the stock market and economy are good.
Well, you know the rest of the story.
YOur kids can not "eat" those "fundamentals" not can your spause...
Good Trading
Dear Boris,
Fundamentals work for me, as much as technicals. The most important thing is too not get too carried away....remember the homebuilder stories I told you when you were buying horton and lennar in Aug? :)
It is ugly out there. I wanted to tell you to stay out of banks like WFC too, but just waiting to see how you figure it out yourself.
What's your currency outlook for today?
Best,
G.
Dear Greenie,
I made money in those dogs LEN,DHI
15% each.
I came out with 0.5% loss from WFC not because it could not eventually make money( it is not going to bankrupt belive me), but because , I think I can buy it cheaper.
None of these decisions were based on "fundamentals"
I think that the Dollar EURO currencies are dead in the water. I would give them max 3 weeks and minimum MOnday 16 Jan.
Good Trading Dear Greenie,
Fundamentals SUCK, but they can give you a long term support if you are so inclined to lose your shirt in the market.(: :)
Dear Greenie,
I know you will love this one.
CFC is fundamentaly and clinicaly dead ( medics took the pulse(: :))
But it was up 50% yesterday.
YOu can not "eat" fundamentals my friend.
Love you guys all.
Good Trading
Dear Greenie,
One more, I must agree though with you that , kind of a fundamental you can see while just going down the street is much more important than one given to you via CNBC or BLOOMBERG.
Alas, you can not get those kind of fundamentals on GOLD.
Still I think fundamentals can be so dangreous that to believe them is to have a death wish in the markets.
Good Trading
I love CFC....that's where I made most money. Every time it gets a huge pop, I short it. Get out when the news is bad again. I do not touch it now, because the stock price went below $10.
I completely agree with you Boris. With fundamental alone, I lost many shirts in the past - even in gold, which goes through gut-wrenching correction. Check May 2006 for example.
Dear Greenie,
That is good, so you used your technicals to stay our of shorts in CFC good for you , cause , fundamentally it was going to 0(ZERO)!
Congrats.
GOod Trading
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