Wednesday, January 23, 2008

System Problems

Please be patient, I had computer malfunction last night and besides not having had a good sleep. Do not have Computer results.

Nevertheless, Not a lot has changed in therms of the outlook. I will provide what I can. Please note that the JPY status will be used to guide

9:37 ET, JPY status 1,1,0,1,1 Hourly signals is what is supporting JPY rally from about 15 minutes ago. When that changes, the prAdd Videoessure should diminish on all assets. Please note, it is not necessary for hourly to go positive( negative for YEN price) for the YEN to start declining.
We are like a pilost without many electronic tools shut, still need to land today
09:46 ET, YEN unable to sustain new breakout, good sign
YEN first AP at 105.52, next APs 105.62, 105.77
09:58 ET, YEN at FIRST
10:00 ET, IF yen doing ABC correction 105.68 is minimum
10:02 ET, we now have trend exhaustion bar on hourly, means turn down(price)
10:05 ET, YEN struggling at first AP, but looks like will break it
10:07 ET, YEN at second approaching 100% abc retrace. and that is close to third as well
10:11 ET, YEN 4th Apoint at 106.05
10:20 ET, we may not have landed yet, but I think we know now that we will.
10:22 ET, YEN at third and we will have reaction here. But 15 mine and hourly counts looks supportive
10:25 ET, we have 5 min upside exhaustion, but no such on 15 or 60 min. So we are not done by any means, while reacting here. We will move higher in stocks and lower in YEN after this little blip
10:47 ET, we now have a sell on 5 min status, little unstable flying conditions for a while

Now let me ask you this, would not you feel million Dollars if you bought the FIXED income Securities (10 Year Notes) at 5.30( ABSOLUTE TOP, with close to 15% total return, in 6 months) I asked you to do? Who would not? You see there is a season for everything and You needed to act then. Now you would be cruising cool Caribbean, while others sweat in the equities market.

10:58 ET, YEN approaching highs at third APoint. Have you noticed how YEN is between the first and third Apoints almost since open?
12:02 ET, retraced 62 FIB on YEN rally since moring. Hope this holds
12:36 ET, that broke. now waiting for exhaustion on the upside for YEN,
Got that on 2 min basis. if broken will have to wait on 5 min basis
12:51 ET, OK got the exhaustion on the 5 min as well. Unfortunately until the hourly is is not in the SELL(YEN,price) it is hard to call the TOP in YEN. 105 held again, which is the first support for YEN today.
13:50 ET, YEN defeated? need a close above 106 for that
14:27 ET, Japanese YEN Surrenders!
14:30 ET, YEN almost hit fourth Apoint, deserves some rest before fifth 106.35, I find it POETIC that 105 long term support and today's first low support were at the same place
14:39 ET, I can only hope that readers, there must have been many new ones, as the profile looks have grown today a lot, knew that YEN was just another way we were telling readers what to do in the STOCK MARKET and did some purchases, at the depth of the market. And if they did, you know next step, TRAILING STOPS! so that you keep some profits, at least.
14:44 ET, JPY status now 1,1,0,1,1 (sell,sell,buy, sell,sell : for JPY PRICE)(Week/Day/60Min/15Min/5Min)
14:49 ET, Perhaps it is GOD's way of rewarding those that came to this site today, cause I/We do not usually give JPY Attraction Points on the net . These are reserved for paying subscribers. But as I lost usage of some of my computing power and that included the Stock Index computers, I decided to work with YEN( which we , often, view as a proxy for the stock market. ENJOY!
14:54 ET, We just hit a 5min status bar sell ( on last bar). SO the status is 1,1,0,1,0 , we are supporting on second AP at this time
15:06 ET, HALLELUJAH! all Major indices minus NAZ are up!
15:08 ET, 4th is giving YEN problem here, I think it will break it sooner or later before 16PM ET.
15:09 ET, BROKEN the fourth AP
16:00 ET, HOUSTON, we have lost NAZ, close Negative!

ENJOY

26 comments:

john said...

Boris,
thanx

old john

daveo said...

Dear Boris, so do that mean the retrace is over at 106.05 ? Kind of confused. Daveo

boris said...

Dear Dave, Please watch the post.
106 we may have reaction, but all everything for now points to continuation of rally
Good Trading

john said...

Boris,

If I were on the board then, I would have put a good portion of my retirement funds in the bonds.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
Enjoy

GOod Trading

Jason said...

Boris,
Thank you for your commentary on the YEN. Did well with EUR & CHF just waiting for this dog to bottom out and turn.
Jason

boris said...

Dear Jason,
Yen, highly manipulated.
ONe needs patience with this one and no overextension, cause that could destroy one...

GOod Trading

Anonymous said...

Hi,

After YEN hit 105 this morning, it is 100% projected from 10/19/07 (weekly). (Initial High/Low was 6/22/07 to 8/17/07).

I had mentioned my analysis of basically drawing parallel lines with those 3 points. Those parallel lines also intersected the more recent high/low of 12/28 & 11/30.

Now: Today action hit those parallel lines again exactly, (on the bottom parallel line). (1/16/08 came up alittle short of the bottom parallel line)

In my view.

Bullish: If today finishes in the top 50% in today’s. (and hopefully in this week’s bar).
Support level(date mentioned above, weekly chart):
1) the 100% mention in the first paragraph of this post, is at 105.69.
2) the 100% price projection from 12/28/07 (Initial high/low 10/19/07 to 11/30/07), is at 103.98.
Action: If YEN goes above 107.31, I would be more bullishly impressed.


Bearish:
Next support level:
1) Same dates as above #1 except 168% price projection, at 98.13
2) Same dates as above #2 except 168% price projection, at 97.21


Conclusion: Similar to Boris, if YEN breaks below 105 then the next stop in my opinion is the 98.13-97.21 area. Or Maybe weeks/months later that is were this bear market takes us. Those two numbers (98.13 & 97.21) are close, in my opinion.

I’m not invested in currency, so it is easy for me to say. Either way, wish all well.

Hope there aren’t too many computer headaches Boris. Sometimes we, ‘the post’, joke about wanting to be ‘machines’; not a day like today; huh.

Good day all.

boris said...

Dear Brandon,
Thanks...
The problem is always man...

Machine does not know it needs to be take care of ( or at lealst it does not know hos to do that(::))

GOod Trading

Anonymous said...

Yah it is funny to talk with people about how machines might turn on humans one day.

I bet, none of them has ever seen a computer code line.

Man is the problem, and the solution. I always like 'Oedipus Rex' from Sopicles.

thanks

Jason said...

Boris,

Bought the USD/JPY at 105.10 at the retest of lows. Do you think it holds? Short or long term?

Jason

Anonymous said...

Dear Boris,

Revisiting the YBR and WBR, both show a turn on the 25th. The direction on the chart is the turn more important than the direction?

Thanks,
Paul

boris said...

Dear Jason,
Market has answered you short term
GOod Chance for long term
as well.

Good Trading

Jason said...

Thanks Mr Market.

I have a little long term from a few days ago. This was a nice scalp trade. Thanks for the updates through out the day.

john said...

BORIS,

THANX, I even understood what you were doing.

old john

boris said...

Dear John,
You are avid JPY watcher...
Me too (:-

Good Trading

john said...

Boris,

you gave out clues

1. computer problem
2. more than usual posting of JPY
3. Turn points

Put them together and I took it for a buy signal

thanx

old john

boris said...

Dear JOhn,

NAZDAROVIE! means ENJOY in RUSSIAN

Good Trading

Anonymous said...

I did a study on market corrections....IF we are still in Bull Market and we follow 1987 or even 1990 post correction path.....we can be at SPX 1600 in 26 weeks.

Facts.
1987: had 75 weeks UP, then 15 weeks down
1990 had 75 weekd UP, then 15 weeks down.
2008: We had 75 weeks UP, this week marks 15 weeks down.

Anonymous said...

Another point of observation....looking back 25 years, we had only one instance (that I can find) where the market Gapped down two days significantly(like today and yesterday) and had recovery....that time was 9/11 disaster. That was another bull market bottom.

Anonymous said...

Boris

would you short any REITS here

Anonymous said...

the 251 area is res.

boris said...

Dear Lag, I would not short anthing, EVEN JPY(:-

Good Trading

Anonymous said...

Boris

just got home and was in a rush to short but a better place may be 270

daveo said...

Dear Boris, thanks for sharing. I'm a very happy camper. Was able to re-enter after getting stopped this am. Took it all off the table for now. No sleep last night due to work. I will be in touch. I could care less about being like Mike. I wanna be like Boris !

Thanks, Daveo

boris said...

Dear Dave
Appreciate the nice words.
Please keep working at honestly and you will be better than Boris.
That is the idea after all...

You and I, both can use good night's sleep...

God Bless you

GOod Trading