Intraday's are coming.
N QQQQ 45.60,45.53,45.51 - 45.97,46.05, 46.16 ,46.36, 46.59
5 min buy status risk a little here
10:02, ET stop at 45.49
10:03 ET stop 45.57 , I got 6c risk
10:05 ET stop 45.61
10:06 ET stop 45.64 break even for me+comis
10:08 ET stop 45.67
10:09 ET take 1/3 profit 45.97 MIT
10:10 ET 1/3 profit 23c , 2/3 rd stop 45.79
10:12 ET stop 1/3 of original at 45.99 rest at 45.79
10:15 ET stopped 1/3 rd 45.99 +42c, 1/3rd stop at 45.79
10:22 ET dropped stop on on 1/3rd to break even 45.63
Same Place Same Time, Deja vu all over again, As Yogi would say GOD Damn 46.06!
11:30 ET, Possible turn time! time to risk 10c+
11:32 ET, stop 45.39 Mental. risking 10c
11:34 ET, stop up 45.45 risk 4c
11:37 ET , stop up 45.49 risk ZERO
11:50 ET, just hit the 4t low 45.20, 5th stands 44.97
11:59 ET, QID 49!!!!! 7squared
12:30 Log Q from 45.12, rasing stops to 45.39
INVESTORS ADD 10% TOTAL MARKET
13:19 ET, out +27c
13:20 ET, Looks like SPX 1296 has a lot of attraction?
From my experience, MDS , usually catches the buy signals on a big down day(close near bottom) or on a big up day ( close near top). If we are going to get the first type then today closes hard low! If we are going to get the second type then we are expecting big rally at close, starting around 14-15Pm. Just heads up what to expect.
Dear Readers, we are within 1-1.5% from the bottom.
If we were to move more than 3% from here we will crater
Need to correct above statment, Correct calculations indicate a bottom within 5+-2%, but that does not mean this bottom is for now. The bottom I talk about here is a bottom that will be a bottom that will last few weeks at least and it may not come until February.
Another observation about the MDS buy signals. When they come on the Hard low closing, which is what we seem to be heading for, then there usually is a lower low the day after , in this case Tuesday, cause the Monday the markets are closed. This then brings us to a bottom on TUESDAY that usually is no lower than 1-1.5% from the close of the MDS buy day SPX close.
N SPX 1334, 1329 - 1349
N QID
23 comments:
Dear Boris,
Good morning.
I think the Mkts. most likely bottomed out(if not bottom is closeby) is my opinion now because 2 of the parameters i mentioned almost met yesterday.
A quick recap of my previous messages for the continuity sake....
1. OCt 23rd... when S&P was 1520...... i mentioned....
"
So overall i still feel S&P has more downside towards the Aug closing LOws of 1430 range after a brief rally towrads 1537. "
2. OCt 27th......when S&P was 1535...... I mentioned
"
I think another look of the charts gave me the confident picture about what we exchanged earlier.... i.e Nov 5th-8th TOP...
I am looking at the following dates.
Nov 5th-8th range TOP followed by BRISK correction till Nov 21st."
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
RESULT : S&P corrected to 1415 on NOV 21
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
3. NOV 12th.... I mentioned.....
" S&P stretched a little higher to 1552 from the anticipated 1537 Tgt before moving down to today's 1446 open lows.
So any chance of a relief rally towards 1503 again before moving down to new Lows of 1370 range by end of the month before staging a new rally
SO since i commented last time, S&P rallied into 1492 on 14th i.e again shy of 10 points from the tgt and turned down to the Lows of 1415 on 21st Nov just like expected.
S&P rallied to 1440 on friday and i don't expect the RALLY has started
I think still there is no panic on any lows and i feel this is still a relief rally and again most likely go down to original mentioned 1370 and infact could even breach that slightly i guess........and form a Bottom fo a HUGE rally.
Also a big Swing of 400-500 point DOW down day in a single session is ideal guess to create panic towards the formation of the bottom and also a suprise Rate Cut from FEd could fuel the rally again.
Regards
your friend "
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RESULT : S&P indeed corrected to 1415 by NOV 21 and as mentioned a relief RALLy to 1503.... happened.. though sightly breached it to 1523.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
4. NOV 30th... I replied, when Curaki was asking you whether 1620 tgt is coming or not... stating....it is not new uptrend
Dear Boris,
Good morning.
I mentioned last time about a suprise rate cut possibility which could fuel the rally.
Again that rate cut hint now is taking the mkts up and i don;t think this is the real Uptrend.
I think S&P could stall very shortly around Dec 5th-7th time frame and probably 1503 and again head downwards towards the 1365 ....range.. infact probably slightly breach that to make a 52 wk Low and then the real uptrend could start into the 1st March 2008.
Also i mentioned last time that i am expecting wilder swings downside .. 400-500 points single day topwrads bottom formation... So probably to accomodate those... we could be making an upside buffer now...
Anyway let's watch the next 2-3 sessions which could give a better view.
Cheers
11/30/2007 6:51 AM
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RESULT : Indeed S&P corrected from 1523 to LOWS of 1330 yesterday JAn 17th......
Also it met my 2 parameters.. i.e i mentioned new 52 week LOW by breaching 1365...... and 2nd... a 400-500 day single day down for Bottom formation on DOW.... If not 400.. almost 300 down yesterday.
So i feel we have bottomed out...... if not bottom is very close by.
Anoher interesting thing is SOX.............. SOX hit high of 560 in JAn 2004 and corrected to 351 in OCT 2004 before rallying....
Now SOX hits a high of 547 and hit a LOW of 345-347 now... which is think is a strong support and SOX and NASDAQ...i.e TECHS should rally and outperfom is my opinion.
CHEERS
your friend
Dear Pattern_Solver , Thanks a Trillion! for you wise(very wise) contirbutions.
Good Trading and Nemaste my dear friend.
Dear Pattern_Solver,
thank you very much for your comments. Only as a summary: you think we will have big rally soon? What are your SP500 targets? Time frame?
Thanks
Dear Boris,
please one commentary: is it possible, in this environment, that USD goes up and stock markets go up, in the same intermediate time frame?
Boris, if I compare the current status of your grouptation oscillators for SP500 and Nasdaq with similar history values, it looks like big up move could come (not only relief rally). What are your thoughts?
Thanks
Hi Boris,
I think we are indeed seeing signs of positive divergence now, although it's mostly on the $NDX ,
That said, your system is registering a buy and my system thinks today through Monday is a turn date..so they are in agreement...
It looks like we may have a couple of false starts here on the intraday before anything really happens..last few days were brutual for the markets..I'm sitting here waiting for the intraday divergences to get a little stronger before I consider doing anything..but it is an interesting time, regardless...
Regards,
Mark L.
Dear Curak/Ivan,
YES, to configs telling rally, maybe big?
YES, Dollar And market can rally together even now for a time
Good Trading
45.12 on the q's and daily chart is right on the 400ema and a very important support, it needs to hold or it will crash. just my 2 cents worth. Waldo
Dear Mark,
Thanks
GOod Trading
do any of you guys follow tradingthecharts? I was just wondering--it's been offline all morning. Any one know why?
Boris,
thanx
old john
Dear John,
Welcoem
Had a hard time typing and catching Q's at 5th(::)
Good Trading
Dear Waldo, Thanks
Good Trading
Boris,
thanx- no need to reply-keep ur fingers on the QQQQs
old john
Dear Boris,
Thank you for your comment on Brutish pound. I did not mention earlier that I am heavily short British pound. Here is what I see.
1. When I check the intraday patterns of different currencies, I find pound to rhyme with euro and aussie dollar. So, pound is still anti-dollar.
2. For the last 2-3 weeks, dollar fell and every currency rallied (euro to retest highs, gold, chf to new highs, aud etc. a little bit). Only currencies that did not rally were british pound and canadian dollar. So, they have huge supply overhead.
3. The 20 year historical range of pound is 130-210. So, it is still close to historical highs and have much room to fall.
4. Fundamentally Britain is in worse shape than US. So, there is no reason its currency should be in any better shape than dollar.
5. Average range of pound/usd is 1.67. So, that is the minimum target to fall.
I actually think British pound will fall towards its low range or even lower. Britain is the capital of sopitalists, and has nothing else. I do not see how they are going to survive the coming depression. Also, historically at the end of every cycle, the empire before the current one ends up in extreme disarray. For example, after WWII Britain lost its empire, but Austro-Hungarians were completely destroyed. The same pattern happened many times, and the time from 'Great' Britain has come.
In any case, I would not let those pseudo-arguments clutter my trades. Right now, I am trading the chart of GBP and see it go down to 186-187 (200 WMA) at least.
G.
Dear Greenie,
I could agree more with your muzings.
Just from what I see, there will be a dead cat bounce in Brutish Pound in 2009 or just before it, which will be second comeing of GEORGE SOROS breaking the BOE.
This time my dream is , for me to do the same.
If you are ready to join now or then give it a thought(half kidding , half seious)(: :)
GOod Trading
Boris and all,
Just to mention the intraday chart of $NDX is forming a beautiful terminal wedge, that could break upside at any time..I've just posted it for any that want to look, you can copy my trendlines to help you with timing..
Regards,
Mark L.
If anyone wants to hold a stock long term I think this is a good one, the symbol is HOGS it is a chinese food company that went public december 27 and I believe it got under the radar when the market was selling off, it is a very profitable company and might be good for long term hold. Boris if you don't want to post this I will understand. Waldo.
Dear Waldo,
I have no problem.
WIth some justification and explanation, it is good for members to say what they think about particular stocks.
We are all grown ups, I hope(::)
GOod Trading
Dear Boris,
DCAT bounce from much lower level, right? Right now GBP is just 8% down from all time high. The cat is too far from dying :)
Dear Pattern_solver,
Namoskar. I think SPX at 1310 reached an IT bottom, which will hold for ten trading days. Expect a 60-120 point rally now and then a large drop to 1210 in mid-late Feb.
Greenie
Dear Greenie,
Agree, from lower level.
No argument there.
Good Trading
Is the market closed monday? waldo
Waldo,
yes it is. Martin Luther King Day
old john
Dear John,Waldo, Great
Thanks I did not really get that info from anywhere else, except this site.
Good Trading
Post a Comment