Please start your morning at GROUPTATION link ( on right, thanks Ivan)... I do. Dollar Oscillator is becoming low/good enough to stay alert for longs.Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of. I did not trade today. The confidence in this rally is not very high. I would like to concentrate on shorting this market, so keep the longs tight and conservative. One more down did not happen. Looks like WBR path remains viable still.
07:55 ET, As an extension of my answer to Dear Ivan's question about the eco/market scenario for 2008/9 I would like to add that, in general, as a forecaster one needs to start somewhere. Well, lot of people start different places. Some economists have army of researchers and millions of dollars spent on economic data. Not being and/or wanting to be an ECONOMIST(::) , I start at the markets. Especially at the Dollar/Currency forecasting first. If I know what happens to currency , I can then tell you what happens to ECONOMY... Period. Give me nothing, nothing but the Currency outlook and I will deliver Economic Outlook. Therefore, my main work is always around currencies.
07:55 ET, As an extension of my answer to Dear Ivan's question about the eco/market scenario for 2008/9 I would like to add that, in general, as a forecaster one needs to start somewhere. Well, lot of people start different places. Some economists have army of researchers and millions of dollars spent on economic data. Not being and/or wanting to be an ECONOMIST(::) , I start at the markets. Especially at the Dollar/Currency forecasting first. If I know what happens to currency , I can then tell you what happens to ECONOMY... Period. Give me nothing, nothing but the Currency outlook and I will deliver Economic Outlook. Therefore, my main work is always around currencies.
16 comments:
Boris,
Would not a lack of confidence in the rally actually be bullish ?
old john
Dear John,
It is my own confidence that is not high.
I also know that other surveys are not confident ( bullish) int this rally.
What i am thinking though is that their confidence will change quickly and will be bearish for the market, while I would like to stay bearish as that is the likely intermediate term, regardless what we do next 10 days.
Good trading
Boris,
Ok-
old john
I hear ya Boris ! I tried to go long last week in several accounts and bailed with a minor loss Friday. I just don't have it in me to go long. If I miss some $, oh well. I'll be ready to go short for certain when it's time.
Good Trading, Daveo
Hi Boris,
I guess I've started a Blog also, although I think it's mostly a place for me to store my old charts :} It's found at marketmathematics.blogspot.com
But I'll still be hanging out mostly here...
Best,
Mark L.
Dear Mark,
Good Luck to you.
I will link up to your site definitely.
Good Trading
Dear David,
I understand how you feel.
This is a really ugly market to navigate.
Nevertheless we managed some profits on the long side. We may still try to do it if opportunity presents, but for now there is no turst here.
Good Trading
Canadian oil & gas trusts (PWE, ERF) seem to have bottomed once again, US dito trusts (SJT, HGT, PBT) moving up. PBT put in a new high. I'm not so sure that oil has topped here.
Regards,
Hi Boris,
please one not so short-term question:
If, at some moment, the big problems of world financial system come to daily light, what do you expect from safe haven currencies (like swiss CHF), how will they behave? Is it to expect that e.g. CHF will be much stronger in 3-4 years, when gold goes to sky? Please your thoughts.
Thanks and regards
Ivan
Dear Cobbense,
Interesting, that was my sentiment, couple days ago when I "loaded up" ( with a little, l) on those TRUSTS and then ababndoned them, as the ENERGY did not look so hot.
Now, the energy oscillator looks a bit more energized, but I am not thrilled still...
HM... you maybe onto someting here.
Good Trading
Dear Ivan.Curak
I do agree that SWISSY looks like a most trust worthy currency under the situation you describe, but I would also add RENMINBI/YUAN as CHINA, by then, could be viewd as a new superpower(rightly or wrongly) and safe haven like USA used to be once.
Good Trading
Dear Cobbense/Readers
I want to be clear, I am not yet ebdorsing run back into energy. I think that better entry point may come around March/April 2008.
Good Trading
Hi Boris/All,
yesterday I read an article on Sefehaven.com (or Goldseiten.de, not sure exactly) about stock market perpective for this year. The author expects strong sell-off till March, thereafter up-down trading, bottom is in late summer/early autumn, and furious relly in last quarter.
As I know about markets and economic fundamentals, this scenario is meaningful for me.
Dear Boris, yes, I know, you are trader, not forecaster (and I don't want to be forecaster, too), but all of us would like to have broader picture of the market. And this is the reason why I want to hear your opinion (about this scenario). Do you think this is very probable scenario?
Thanks
Ivan
Dear Ivan,
I think the scenario outlined by the author, is very reasonable.
Historical perspective of the similar financial situations is that of stagflation and that is exactly what we seem to have developing. YBR seems to think so as well, at least until March( we will update forecast then).
As a big picture, I have no problem with this scenario. It is not the only one, but I would say it is a predominant one for me as well. And it fits well with my currency and Interest rate forecasts.
Good Trading
Boris,
Looks like the lows are taken out on the JPY and CHF. Do you think the EUR will take out 1.5? Do you have any downside targets for these pairs?
Thanks,
Jason
Dear Jason,
Those lows reached today,
Are strong support levels
If they break, than we will have to establish lower lows.
Good Trading
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