Dear Readers, no more "limits" section. we renamed that section to Attraction Points, cause it is a nicer name and more importantly reflects the nature of our points precisely ( they are points to which prices get attracted).
N QQQQ 51.16 - 51.57
N SPX 1468 - 1474
N QID 37.53 - 37.92(38.00,38.13)
10:29 ET, This is the last decline step in Dollar, it will be over next week +- 1 week. which means it could be this week too.
Careful here initiating AntiDollar moves.
10:33 ET, BKX approaching our long projected 85.85, today's low is 86.85
11:13 ET, 15.20 is a 62% FIB for SIlver. Careful here everybody. Again, if long remain so, the only way to possibly go long is a cheap option...
11:25 ET, Stay cool here, the world is not coming to an end yet. The Dollar weakness into 3 Jan was predicted like with a precision of +-2 days and here we are with all the consequences of it. OIL GOLD Higher and Currencies Higher. You are present at turning points , even as it could last into next week.
11:34 ET, QID at the 5th of Volatile Apoint(old limit) This decline has a chance of generating a buy signal, but I can not guarantee, very hard to predict the Pressure Readings of 500 Stocks ( 11:38 ET, not too good 39.10 5th on QID is broken , need it to come back)
11:49 ET, ES futures at 1457 4th Volatile support
We have buy signals status on all indices and exahaustion bars. BKX is almost there ( low 86.60 ) mere 75 points from the target low!
11:56 ET, if you ever thought to buy this is your time, with ES futures protection stop at 1456.25. GO, risk is small, the 5th Apoint of ES futures is 1447.54!
11:58 ET, ES 1460, just pull up the stop to break even or tiny loss and see what happens.
12:19 ET, gave up on the 1456.25 level, not a hard break yet though and it was worth a coffee money to check this one out. I am adding a bit of the high quality and high Yield stocks to my portfolio here. Remember these are stocks I am prepared to hold even if we are or going into recession.(IVESTORS, I do not advise you to do it yet, You should be 15% invsted and stay there for a while)
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris,Happy New Year , Happy New Year JD. .Cover Shorts at 2601 (51 Sq) NAZLooking for big Bounce Best RegardsJim
1/02/2008 9:26 AM
12:34 ET, BKX low 86.41 only 55 points away from the target announced months ago. I bought a bit of USB and WFC as well. Nice YIELD. I have also added Canadians BMO and CM
Dear HAMKUA, Welcome to our "day time" Pannel(: :)
12:58 ET, we got new support on ES futures 1453.00 almost a triple bottom there.
Any attempts to buy the market here are like running ahead of the time. We have no MDS signal so we are only guessing. I suggest we do not guess for now and wait for the signal to , actually come. I will be out, perhaps for the rest of the today's trading session. Enjoy. Do not hesitate to take the leadership and keep the board alive. Thanks and Good Trading
Jim Taylor, JD said...
S&P500 at 1444 38sqJim
1/02/2008 10:15 AM
Got delayed a bit, waiting for my car to arrive. Taking profits on JPY longs and starting to nibble on the JPY shorts. ( I am early and have lot to invest so, do not follow me)
Back , Markets Closed.
Dear Lag,Tina,John,Greenie,Blaine, JD and all others thanks for keeping the board alive in my absence. Thanks
Dear Greenie, Exhaustion bar is another proprietary construct, but you can come up with your own by looking at fractal and/or DMI indicators , both public and looking for trend exhaustion on those. My idea of it somewhat more convoluted but is build on the same principles. Thanks for the question.
Oh Yeah, about the polluting my blog, well, just do it again ok(: :)
N QQQQ 51.16 - 51.57
N SPX 1468 - 1474
N QID 37.53 - 37.92(38.00,38.13)
10:29 ET, This is the last decline step in Dollar, it will be over next week +- 1 week. which means it could be this week too.
Careful here initiating AntiDollar moves.
10:33 ET, BKX approaching our long projected 85.85, today's low is 86.85
11:13 ET, 15.20 is a 62% FIB for SIlver. Careful here everybody. Again, if long remain so, the only way to possibly go long is a cheap option...
11:25 ET, Stay cool here, the world is not coming to an end yet. The Dollar weakness into 3 Jan was predicted like with a precision of +-2 days and here we are with all the consequences of it. OIL GOLD Higher and Currencies Higher. You are present at turning points , even as it could last into next week.
11:34 ET, QID at the 5th of Volatile Apoint(old limit) This decline has a chance of generating a buy signal, but I can not guarantee, very hard to predict the Pressure Readings of 500 Stocks ( 11:38 ET, not too good 39.10 5th on QID is broken , need it to come back)
11:49 ET, ES futures at 1457 4th Volatile support
We have buy signals status on all indices and exahaustion bars. BKX is almost there ( low 86.60 ) mere 75 points from the target low!
11:56 ET, if you ever thought to buy this is your time, with ES futures protection stop at 1456.25. GO, risk is small, the 5th Apoint of ES futures is 1447.54!
11:58 ET, ES 1460, just pull up the stop to break even or tiny loss and see what happens.
12:19 ET, gave up on the 1456.25 level, not a hard break yet though and it was worth a coffee money to check this one out. I am adding a bit of the high quality and high Yield stocks to my portfolio here. Remember these are stocks I am prepared to hold even if we are or going into recession.(IVESTORS, I do not advise you to do it yet, You should be 15% invsted and stay there for a while)
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris,Happy New Year , Happy New Year JD. .Cover Shorts at 2601 (51 Sq) NAZLooking for big Bounce Best RegardsJim
1/02/2008 9:26 AM
12:34 ET, BKX low 86.41 only 55 points away from the target announced months ago. I bought a bit of USB and WFC as well. Nice YIELD. I have also added Canadians BMO and CM
Dear HAMKUA, Welcome to our "day time" Pannel(: :)
12:58 ET, we got new support on ES futures 1453.00 almost a triple bottom there.
Any attempts to buy the market here are like running ahead of the time. We have no MDS signal so we are only guessing. I suggest we do not guess for now and wait for the signal to , actually come. I will be out, perhaps for the rest of the today's trading session. Enjoy. Do not hesitate to take the leadership and keep the board alive. Thanks and Good Trading
Jim Taylor, JD said...
S&P500 at 1444 38sqJim
1/02/2008 10:15 AM
Got delayed a bit, waiting for my car to arrive. Taking profits on JPY longs and starting to nibble on the JPY shorts. ( I am early and have lot to invest so, do not follow me)
Back , Markets Closed.
Dear Lag,Tina,John,Greenie,Blaine, JD and all others thanks for keeping the board alive in my absence. Thanks
Dear Greenie, Exhaustion bar is another proprietary construct, but you can come up with your own by looking at fractal and/or DMI indicators , both public and looking for trend exhaustion on those. My idea of it somewhat more convoluted but is build on the same principles. Thanks for the question.
Oh Yeah, about the polluting my blog, well, just do it again ok(: :)
62 comments:
5 days of trin is giving a pretty strong buy at 6.76---6 is a buy
also the day before or 31st was 5.97
Dear Lag, Thanks for update.
GOod Trading
ISM came in at 47.7. Economy in recession.
dumped my QLD hedge
Boris,
Looks like they are killing the USD/JPY again. Do you think 110 - 62% will hold?
Jason
Dear Jason,
I am long JPY and will take some proits at 110. I mentioned this as a very likely target few days ago.
It may hold, today, but in general I think it will break next 2-3 days.
Good Trading
Hi Boris, Is it time to go long the indices? Do you think MDS and other systems will all confirm the buy today?
Thx, G.
Seems like unfilled gap at COMPQ 2600 wants to be filled ?!
Dear Greenie,
I can not say. It may not confirm the buy, in fact it could be going lower all the way into Jan 10.
Hard for me to predict what 500 stocks are doing now.
Good Trading
Definitely have to be looking for a short term bottom in USD/JPY here. Has been tanking over the last 2 hours and is at 62% retrace on the daily chart.
jason
Gold moving--someone just bought a bunch of GLD
I woke up to chaos this morning:
Gold @ $863, Oil @ $98.50, 2-Yr @ 2.88%, 10-Yr @ 3.93% and Yen 109.xx. All are HUGE intraday moves. This is either the beginning or the end of something.
Boris, is gold topping here?
Dear Lag, do not be fooled.
If you still long remian so.
DO not jump Long in GOLD here
Just trail stops if you are there already
Good Trading
Yet the QQQQ is hanging in there and AAPL is green...
Dear Blaine,
Why is this surprising.
For months I said Jan 3 +- 2 days will be the Scary Dollar Decline and GOld topping.
Well you are seeng it now. I may end up with a gapping action tomorrow.
This is the time to keep cool nerves.
Good Trading
Closed my dax puts, too risky to keep them until tomorrow morning,
Good trading :-)
Tiina
Dear Tina,
NAZDAROVIE!
Good Trading
Dear Boris and friends,
Remember this interesting link?
Clik Link
This was when the markets tumbled after the Fed 'only' reduced by 25bp in Dec.
Looks like scenario 1 (less of the two evils) may be the outcome. Double bottom for S&P at 1440-ish, then upwards movement before the massive downturn.
We are approaching the second bottom now, nearing the 1440 level.
Perhaps I will take some long positions tomorrow, but need to be wary of jobs report coming out on Fri.
Thank You Boris, I try to learn with baby steps,and keep the rule number 1 of Boris in my mind(= newer lose money..). Look at Marty Chenard´s site, it looks like SP 500 might have broken the triangle.. I don´t know about NYA..
http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Dear Tina,
break of 1456.25 on ES futures is not good news, but the break is not big one and can bridged. In any case coffee money was worth it to check out this level. Is now gone, but if we manage to come up above it befire the days end it would be a good sign.
Good trading
Hi Boris,
Happy New Year.
Cover Shorts at 2601 (51 Sq) NAZ
Looking for big Bounce
Best Regards
Jim
Boris, What are high-quality/high-yield today?
Best,
G.
Dear Greenie,
For example I have added some money into.
Pipelines. KMP,EPD etc.
I have added income funds TEI,GIM and FAM.
I have added some GLAD
etc..
GOod Trading
Dear Hamakua,
Sorry I missed your post.
Thanks a lot.
Please keep contributing
Good Trading
Hi,
I started reading dynamic trading, so I'm kinda new to waves. But I’m going to write about the YEN quote; Bearish. (around $110) Along with the Williams’(author) strategy overlayed, with 3 ‘wise men’ (entry points) each being more confident (higher investment).
(Inverse for bullish)
1)Wise man #1; bearish; higher than 2 prev bars. Finished in bottom 50%. Above some moving averages. (Entered following day which goes below bar’s low)
2) Wise Man #2; 5 day – 34 day oscillator. 3rd consecutive down bar after a ‘top’. (enter if following day goes lower)
3)Wise Man #3: prev bar in the past (ie 3 day in the past) was lower than two bars on either side. Then in today’s action the price goes below that marker in the past. (you kinda have to be going down, for this final confirmation Wise man #3)
ok; sorry.
If anyone gets to the end, please disagree or make suggestions.
This is my guess.
Start Weekly:
1) Almost Wise man #1 6/22/07
2) Wise Man #2 8/3/07
3) Wise Man #3 (8/17/07) (Tangents from 3/9/07, 12/8/06, 8/11/06, 7/14/06)
4) Wise Man #3 (11/16/07) (Tangents from 5/19/06)
So where do I think we are in the wave, now that I’ve learned about some about them.
From the high on 6/22/07 (the almost wise man #1), today we are either start of wave 5; or wave 3:3. (down impulse wave).
I’ll say wave 3:3.
Wave 2 (8/17 to 10/19) was 50 retracement of wave 1(6/22/07 to 8/17/07).
Wave 3:2 (11/30 to 12/28) was .618 retracement of wave 3:1 (full Wave 3?)(8/17 to 11/30)).
Parallel lines first from the low of Wave 1 to Wave 3:1 (Wave 3 ?); then other line started from Wave 2’s top of 10/19/07; would have supported the resistance at 12/28/07. And logically would support the Wave 3:2 (or maybe we just started Wave 5).
Dynamic Time: Daily High on 10/15/07 was a 144 calendar days behind the recent high at 12/26/07.
Smaller time interval; (Daily)
1) Wise man #1 6/22/07 (This marker was not made on the weekly interval, only the daily)
2) Wise Man #2 6/27/07 (entered 3 days later on the first Wise man #3)
3) Wise Man #3 (7/02/07) (Tangents from 6/27/07; that day was yes, wise man #2)
4) Wise Man #3 Many dates happen since that day and now.
Parallel Lines; Those parallel lines fit nicely in the Daily chart, Monthly chart.
S&P500 at 1444 38sq
Jim
Just added some QLD, ROM and UYG.
Looking for a sharp rally as my indicators show an oversold condition with positive divergence. The VIX also looks very overbought and ready to fall. I may be jumping the gun, but the YBR should bail me out this month before we get the projected collapse...
Good trading.
Bought QLD
My indicators say time to go long...for next 3-5 days (??)
I agree all my stuff went Green also
the one that was way over was the trin values--this should pop very well here
Russell bounced from 751 - 27.4 square.
I am stupid - should have seen before. NDX, COMPQ went down ~2% intraday, but NALOW, NYLOW did not increase.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYLOW&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t27531522628&r=5659
We still have the Friday employment report to deal with. That could stop/start any rally. But I agree with Greenie and Lag, it looks like we go higher for few days... Trail the stops.
Dear Boris,
Sorry for polluting your board...could I delete some of my posts?
Also, what does an exhaustion bar look like?
Best, G.
Closed my dax puts, too risky to keep them until tomorrow morning,
Good trading :-)
Tiina
All,
Thank you, I nibbled at the qqqq's today. I got a little shakey but this board is the best
old john
There was very heavy buying in the SPY today. The block trades had $2.1B on upticks and $1.2B on downticks. The boys were buying this dip...
Great day,,,I sold 1/3 my Gold (GCF08) positions,,,out 1/3 at 859.60..
Good day,,guess I'm at my manic stage today,,,nice feeling compared to the depressed stage which I have felt for many times in 07.
Markets are Manic/Depressive,,,LOL
But all is good,, I learn little more every day as I check out your Blog..
Just realized that ES is E-Mini SP
ES is trading symbol,,,,correct,,,so Gold Contract would be GC ?
Thanks again,,,enjoy reading all post here,,very,very much- Tim
I had a long position from this afternoon (ER2), but I closed it overnight with a small profit. If there is a rally coming, too many seem to have figured it out. I expect a slump tomorrow morning breaking today's lows, but then there will be a monster rally.
Dear Tim, Enjoy the gains.
Keep up the good work.
GOod Trading
Dear Greenie
Cheers
Good Trading
Hello Dear Boris....
When I look at Ivan's work, it appears that energy should rally not decline....Gold should decline but the dollar should decline as well....As my thinking seems incongruent to yours, please clear things up for me....
Dear Xerxes,
Rule is that when the PINK and other longer term oscillators are down they are going to cause the ASSET to decline.
this is the case for both of gold and energy.
the rule is invers for only one asset and that is Dollar. there the case is of the PINC being up with other osclillators causing the Dollar to decline.
Remember simple rules, these are clearly visible on charts...
when longer range oscillators( all but YELLOW) are up then the assets will/should rally. When they are down the Asset will/should decline.
This rule is reverse for USDOLLAR ONLY
Good Trading
Significance of YELLOW oscillator in these rules is they have the quickest influence on the direction of the longer term oscillators.
Thank you Boris....
All the gold oscillators except the yellow are pointing down, therefore suggesting sell...you agree
All the energy oscillators are pointing up, including the yellow so this should be a strong buy but you are suggesting a sell....
The dollar shows most lines up but with one moving down....so this suggests to sell the buckeroo and you agree....
These charts seem simple enough to interpret yet i'm not always on the same page as you, as with energy...
Dear Xerxes,
You need to forget for a moment about directions. Just concentrate on ABSOLUTE location of the oscillatoris, that is what counts. When the longer term oscillators are relatively down(in absolute terms) and starting to rise, that is where they are perhaps most dangreous for the asset. Cause they are calling for asset to go down?
For Dollar it is inverse that is all.
If you want to find what ABSOLUTELY low means, just look at the history and imagine where are are the oscillators on the historical bases. Are they in similar places where the asset started to go down or opposite.
So. Loo at absolute values, not directions.
Good Trading
Boris, thanks for that last bit of info. That helped alot. Good Trading. Daveo
Dear Daveo enjoy.
I may often assume that people read the things I do and that is not correct.
Thank god some people just do not let it go and ask questions
EVERYBODY, as questions if you do not understand. Nothing on this site it extra it is all needed together to comprehend where we go together
Good Trading
Hello Dear Boris....
I'm still a bit confused....
When I look at the energy oscillators, I see that they roughly hit a "bottom" between the .4 and .6 marks similar to many times in the past...From prior explanations I was under the impression that as the lines start rising from this bottom the asset should be bought....
Dear Xerxes As the LInes start rising the prices start declining.
Just look at the charts and see.
That is what happens.
THe oscillators and prices form a mirror image(: :)
GOod Trading
Hello Dear Boris....
As regards my last post on the energy chart, I think my error was in thinking that the instrument should be bought at the bottom...Correct me if I'm wrong, but you once explained that on these charts the instrument should be sold, not bought, as it rises up from its bottom position...
Thank you Boris, posts crossed
Hello Dear Boris....
I read the following at another board and it seems to dovetail, I think, with your view of the future....
If you are so inclined, could you offer an opinion as to the merit of the argument...and maybe explain it better :-)
Monetary flows (MVt) [Irving Fischer's equation], the proxy for inflation, it's rate-of-change, has been negative for 21 out of the last 20 months: this corresponds to Barry Ritholtz's figure of "23 consecutive month of decelerating housing returns".
The rate-of-change in the proxy for real-gdp has been negative for 16 out of the last 21 months. It should be positive for all of 2008.
These numbers say the economy bottomed in Oct 07 this year (corresponds to Case-Shiller home price index falling 6.1% y-o-y) Then housing bottomed this month (Dec 07).
Real-gdp will rebound the first of 2008. March thru May will be weak/sea saw, afterwards economic activity will be robust. But everything is not rosy. Inflation is deep rooted and the probability of stagflation is high.
Let me say this: It is mathematically impossible to miss an economic forecast.
3/1/2006 -0.14 -0.03
4/1/2006 -0.19 -0.07
5/1/2006 -0.22 -0.07
6/1/2006 -0.30 -0.02
7/1/2006 -0.13 -0.02
8/1/2006 -0.43 -0.18
9/1/2006 -0.40 -0.06
10/1/2006 -0.85 -0.18
11/1/2006 -0.29 -0.17
12/1/2006 0.12 -0.08
1/1/2007 0.34 0.00
2/1/2007 -0.14 -0.11
3/1/2007 -0.36 -0.17
4/1/2007 -0.27 -0.09
5/1/2007 -0.12 -0.15
6/1/2007 -0.04 -0.07
7/1/2007 0.16 -0.08
8/1/2007 0.15 -0.13
9/1/2007 -0.19 -0.09
10/1/2007 -0.52 -0.24 Turnaround
11/1/2007 0.14 -0.18
12/1/2007 0.44 -0.23 Bottom
1/1/2008 0.59 0.06
2/1/2008 0.25 0.01
3/1/2008 0.01 0.02 Sea Saw
4/1/2008 0.00 0.01 Sea Saw
5/1/2008 0.00 0.00 Sea Saw
6/1/2008 0.10 0.01 Rebound
7/1/2008 0.17 0.01 Rebound
8/1/2008 0.05 0.01 Rebound
9/1/2008 -0.20 0.04 Rebound
10/1/2008 -0.30 0.06 Rebound
11/1/2008 0.20 0.05 Rebound
12/1/2008 0.35 0.02 Rebound
Dear Xerxes,
My approach to markets is conterintuitive.
I follow/predict markets and then From there I infer economics...
I do not start with th economy to predic the markets.
I follow the money flows, but for the desore of predicing markets...
Now, there is , a connection , of course and Fischer formula is used often, but if I take this formulat and it does not correspond to what I think about markets, I throw the results of the formula.
Markets are made, not calculated.
I predicted what Market 'makers' are up to. And that often come as a surporise to people.
If we are deflating, why is the OIL/GOLD rising?
There is a lagging affect, how long?
I do not think I want to spend too much time on these unless the evidence is overwhelming.
Yes, the outlook that you present from another BLog/site seems to correspond to the lines I see at this point.
GOod Trading
Thank you Boris....
quite interesting....
back to the charts....
as the oscillators on the energy chart turn up from the bottom the instrument should be sold....
for the dollar chart, being the inverse, turning up from the bottom is a signal to buy...but that is wrong....what am i missing
Hi Boris,
do you agree that I explain here how you calculate the value for oscilators (you explained me this in one of your mails)? I think it could help dear xerxes and others to better understand Grouptation graphs!
Regards
Dear Xerxes
The dollar oscillators are not turning up from ABSOLUTE bottome. It is more like high and turning down still... Kind of..
good Trading. Rules are clear, but picture is not always clear. in this case of dollar though it looks clear. We are at highs in OSCILLATORS and need to come down and Take dollar down with it, even if slightly ( which has been going on for last 5 days).
Perhaps finishing soon as the oscillatORs do not have always come all the way down. they may find a somewhat higher plato as the dollar regains strength
Good trading
Dear IVAN, go ahead, of course,
Please, interject any time you wish.
Good Trading
Dear xerxes/All,
I understood Boris' oscillators well when he wrote in an email following example (copy/paste from mail):
Oscillator is buy pressure number derived as Follows;
There are 30 stocks in sp500 that are "ready to go up" and 20 that are "ready to go down"
we take the 30/(30+20)= 30/50=3/5 = 0.6 to be the value of the oscillaotr. It goes between 0 and 1.
Same way on any group ( it just looks at the number of members ready to go up and down and calculates this value).
Very simple ( even though the concept of "ready to up/down" is not that simple and is proprietary).
I hope this will help you, too.
Regards
Dear Curaki,
thanks for saving me from myself. Cause, Yes, I wroute that thing, but often assumption people make that what I say looks complicated. In fact, as IVan demonstrates it is not. Simply higher that number reading on oscillator it is harder to 'find' more to go up , so naturally the thing comes(must come) down.
Dear Xerxes thanks for the questions. I hope it helps everyone.
Good trading
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