Maximum Low Projection of YEN today 106.24
N QQQQ 47.04,47.08 - 47.76,47.52
N SPX 1398,1396,1392,1389(1385,1377,1343,1316)- 1403,1404,1408
N QID
10:38 ET, Watch Out, possibility exists that today and tomorrow, constitute the washout days. So, keep you EYES on Attraction Points and look if you can position yourself. By this I mean, you stop very close to purchase. No ifs and buts. This is the time to be Guerrilla only trader. If you have investment position just hold on it.
The additional Apoints above are for SPX are from more volatile base.
11:12 ET, As mentioned earlier, the date 17 +-1 is pivotal date for ALL and if JPY is destined to turn around that date, so will the stocks market. Those that are overextended( please do not do it again) can see if they can hold through these 2 difficult days
11:36 ET, YEN is declining, stocks not responding...? More Pain to come?
11:47 ET, of the Apoints above the 1377 is the most important, if broken...
12:05 ET,
DISGRACE!, EURO CURRENCIES , GOLD, SILVER, came in like lions and are going out like lambs?
having that said, Dollar could be turning dowPublish Postn again on a 5 min chart bases.
12:39 ET, GOLD 914.40 looks like a very important print for GOLD, get a courage, but do not risk much. Buy few deeply discounted GOLD Puts.
17 comments:
Sold some QID--so Im a little long now--about 13%
Dear Lag
Good For you
Good Trading
Hi Boris, you are right on washout today, down volume to up volume is 10 to 1. Waldo
Dear Waldo, Welcome back.
Thanks for the info
Good trading
fyi,
At MacWorld today, Jobs speaks at 9 am Pacific.
Which is 15 min from now.
I might speculate with defined risk, a break-out on any announcement.
In particular, Netflix (NFLX) might now be in comptition with an Apple movie download service. (which might be Job's BIG announcement) NFLX was active this morning. Bullish bars just came on 5 min bars (WiseMan #1). sorry if, late notice.
good day.
Dear Brandon, thanks and GOOD TRADING
Boris, just some general comments, no reply necessary:
The airline index (XAL) is up almost 20% since last Wednesday? It is a bright spot today - higher by about 2%. CAL and UAUA are up over 40% since last week. The WBR was in the airlines... Could this be a leading indicator on the market?
Also, if the market doesn't bounce in the next few days, this will be the first time in 5 years that the 5-day ISEE MA has been wrong.
I hope this all works out to be just a painful lesson on being overextended. And not a story to tell my grandchildren about how I was long the day of the 2008 great market crash.
Finally, I must say I am surprised that Ben Bernanke is not jumping in and rigging the market this month. There is still options expiration Friday to screw the shorts, but I think it is too close to January 30 for him to do anything. Maybe he is reading this blog and saving the Seniors instead of Sopitalists? Good for him. But I doubt it, he will give the citizens a great big BOHICA soon enough.
Dear Blaine,
As painful as being overextended is to experience, we all experience it, being there and having done that, I hope to have saved and will save in the future too much of these experiences from our readers.
To help them was the the reason I dedicated my time and effort. So, I hope it will not go useless.
Now, Airlines? interesting? do they know something about OIL that you and i do not?
which is OIL coming down? Is transportation finally waking up and smelling coffee.
Possible.
I can not see immediate big rally in the market, but I do see the 17 to 26 Jan as a rally. Hopefully all overextended will get rid off the baggage they do not need and start new page in trading , as a wiser men/women this time.
Good Trading
I was fooling around:
DJIA 100 min graph
Conclusion: DJIA goes below 12500 one more time.
High#1: 12/10/07 10 am(with all 3 bear confirmations)
Low#1 (12/19/07 10am)
High #2 12/26/07 10 am (with all 3 bear confirmations)
Low #2 1/09/08 10 am (with all 3 BULL confirmations)
High #3 1/10/08 11:40 am (with all 3 bear confirmations)
Observations:
1)High #2 retraced .618 of High #1
2) Low #1 is .618 time period between High #1 and High #2.
3) Low #2 is 1.618 extention of Wave1 (High #1 and low #1).
4) 3 initial bull signals at Low #2, 1/11/08 11:40 am, and 1/15/08 8:20 am.
Conclusion: I think it might be finish to this, but for argument sake I think the DJIA will go below 12500 in the near term.
And then turn up?
I wonder why all my signal were at 10 am. Maybe tomorrow at 10 am after some of the bank and CPI?
Dear Brandon,
Good Observations
Thanks and Good Trading
Boris and all,
My work also suggests that this decline should end in the next 2 -3 trading days, but if this price action breaks through the confines of the wedge I have drawn, then something deeper is breaking down, and if this becomes wave 3 of a 5 wave decline rather than wave C of an A_B_C, then you are in crash territory..The next day or so should tell us, right now the power of this downdraft is suggesting some untowards possibilities..
Regards,
Mark Lytle
Dear Mark,
My heart does not want to agree with you for obvious reasons, but my brain does...
Good Trading
VIX is giving a divergent signal. Since the open, it has been falling all day with the SPX...
And if you look at the daily chart, even though we almost took out the SPX August lows, the VIX is no where near its August spike high of 37.50.
This is either really bullish or really bearish. It would hopefully be bullish based on the ISEE and AAII, which are at bottom extremes that have never failed in the past 10 years. I guess it would truly be a black swan if we crash now. But I don't see how it happens with this sentiment. Besides, the mere fact that everyone is talking about a crash and bear market has to scream BUY.
Crashes and bear markets usually catch everyone by surprise. The surprise here would be a strong rally to new highs to get everyone excessively bullish. Then the recession and bear market can take hold. Again, this is just my unscientific observation of the past.
dumped some QLD on the pop
now neutral again--didnt get hurt to bad
Boris
The vix being kinda low here for this big dump
is that because the big boys own the puts for options day?
Dear Lag, it is possible that puts are in strong hands.
That would not bode well for a rally.
But I think that if YEN holds here and does not break hard all else will be taken care off.
Good Trading
Dear Blaine,
We should hope that Yen holds here and the rest will be fine. Otherwise, we may have to think of a protection via puts.
please consider this alternative, just in case we may need to activate it tomorrow.
Good trading
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