GBP is in the dumpsters and will continue to be there with an on and off rallies.
YEN, has a chance of one more spike below 106-5 and down thereafter
GOLD has likely topped for the time being
ENERGY ditto Gold
For More about Asset Classes See Grouptation Updated(Thanks Ivan).
Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of.
Members traded, but did not have reports, I traded today several times and there was no losing trade, few ended up even, but Majority ended up winning 20-23c per trade. Now, please observe that I made about 8 trades past 7 days with the incredible precision of no loses and 6 Wins. Few of these trades yielded 60-70c and on the average I got close to 35c on each trade. Now, why do I recount that?
Cause, all trades were made counter prevailing trend? Nobody told me I am in the bear market, except myself. Remember I rang the Bell in May 2007 ( real SPX top, see picture at this page end). The idea being that to make money in the markets you do not need to know anything, but the short term swing info and use good management techniques. Did you notice, that in no trade I risked more than 10c and often not even 5c. It did not matter what FED did, what Bloomberg/CNN/FOX or anybody said. These trades were purely technical trades. I can also tell, even as you know this already: I am not wave counter use no averages of any kind. Most of what I use is a DIGITAL info, such as ATTRACTION POINTS. EXHAUSTION EVENTS, BAR COUNTING/PROJECTION.
Now, there are other times, when I struggle, but important thing is I do not lose much, max 10c and I am gone waiting for another bus, having totally forgotten about the previous trade...
All of these help to "trade with some frustration, but without pain", pinpoint the turnaround times and price levels. Well, I hope we are all learning, cause this is the goal. To help you realise that you can do it. Those SOPITALISTS have nothing on you.
52 comments:
Boris,
thanx, I did ok today on your trade. Not quite as quick as you, but made money
old john
Dear John,
Thanks. ENJOY.
What counts is thate you keep at it. One day you will see that you made great progress and you did not even know when it happened.
Good Trading
Boris,
I am still learning but doing ok. I have come to the conclusion that I am much better using smaller lots. That is my goal , to be fairly good at it using smaller lots. Bigger lots make me do stupid things. After a few very good trades, the temptation is there to use bigger lots, still trying to resist it. thanx again
old john
Dear Boris,
Excellent job. Congratulations on your trading !!
G.
Dear John,
I am exactly the same way and you know what, everybody, regardless what they tell you, is the same way.
Ok here is another secret. The good trader found and appreciated the "other person" in him/her that is a "trader", cause "we are all very different persons when trading than ordinary ourselves"
That is it...
GOod Trading
Dear Greenie,
Thanks.
GOod Trading
Boris,
I do like your " Bus" statements though:)
old john
Dear John,
You know me, a die hard STEELERS fan. Jerome BETTIS, was my most favorite BUS.
And I love this method of transportation ever since(: :)
GOod Trading
Hi Boris and Friends,
Thought I'd share this link... Frank Barbera's articles have been quite accurate since I've been following him...
link
Cheers!
Another NY time article. Makes me wonder if the commodity bull run has ended for atleast 2008.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/15/business/worldbusiness/15commodities.html?_r=1&
Finally the US stock market travails have made it to the BBC headlines with sub-headlines such as
Have Your Say -
Will Bush's growth package rescue the US economy?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/
Now I am sure that today was a short-term bottom. Also note that today's low is in the area of the April 06 top.
Let me also note that the NY times article (link posted above) was followed by EEM losing its bullish triangle pattern earlier this week by
closing below the Nov lows.
Dear Hajime,Sang
Thanks
GOod Trading
Hi Boris,
please one advice: what do you think, how will telecommunication stocks behave in next months and years, in relation to whole market?
Thanks
Dear Boris and friends,
That article I posted by Frank Barbera, in which he posted that he thinks that the market is oversold bears recognition because in his previous article, he clearly reviews his experiences in past bear markets. He clearly did not think we were oversold a week ago given the context that we are in a bear market:
link
But now, even he thinks we may be near or at the short term bottom, even in a Bear market.
Coupled with the MDS Buy signal, which was generated through Boris' very proven methodology, the chances are going up for a bottom to be formed next week.
Now, as Boris mentioned, this is not guaranteed even though it is more likely than not. If we don't find a bottom and we fall further as Boris mentioned another 3%, we will 'crash' further down.
According to Frank Barbera's historical analysis, this is quite rare, even in the context of the the 2000 and 2001 panic sells, for us to crash further down at this point given the data so far.
Cheers!
Dear Ivan,
The stock like ATT, was supposed to be a recession proff. OK... it is getting hit hard, so seems to be VZ,Verizon, ON the other hand Deutche Telecom is still OK and TELEFONICA has done great, but falling , Telefonos De Mexico, is turning down after terrific run.
It seems to me like the only Telecommunications companies in developing countries ( VIETNAM kind of countries ) where the penetration of the Wireless and COmmunications in general is low could still continue doing better.
Having all that said. I am having difficulty coming up with an uniform answer to this question.
Which means futher digging is needed and/or perhaps we should start publishing the telco group OSCILLATOR to catch good of bad in this group.
I do have Landtelco group, but we have not put it up on the net yet!
Dear Ivan, thanks for updates on GROUPTATION
GOod Trading
Dear Sang,
I agree with your sentiment here.
GOod Trading
Dear Boris,
thanks. If/when you have time, you can prepare data for telco group, I will do my part of job.
I don't know if you are screening the markets and economies of Eastern Europe, but ok, I will ask you: what is your perspective for markets in Eastern Europe, if we have recession in USA, probably UK,...? I hope you don't expect recession in Germany, France,... In fact, I am in doubt, to sell or to hold my shares of some Croatian companies.
Many thanks
Eastern europe is not Germany. It will be in worse recession than us.
Dear greenie,
of course, we know where is Germany. I am not sure about economy in Eastern Europe, I think this economy depends stronger from Western Europe than from USA. So, if Germany, France,... avoid recession, I hope many eastern countries could avoid recession as well. Do you agree?
Dear Ivan,
I do not expect just a garden variety of recession and/or slowdown. I think that we could be in for a long and hard downturn, with intermittent rallies that will look 2003 again, but it will be a lie and markets will swoon again. IN short I expect a on and off duwnturn for perhaps 5-7 years. Now 2009-10 break may look like the most promising , but will fizzle again. I think.
So we are talking about downturn with violent waves around the median downturn line.
Now the question is, how would new EUROPE , old soviet , sphere will survive this.
It could do better initially as the "decoupling" will be putting people asleep, but "decoupling" will be debunked by 2010 at the latest and we could see "new EUROPE" do worse than OLD EUROPE..
While, I may not have the latter part exact, as far as the markets go, It will have the same form as the world markets. So, our oscillators will be applicable to
"new EUROPE"
GOod Trading
Dear Ivan, Readers,
Please note that in the above response, we speak about downtrend. Now, that could turn into sideways and even uptrend, but that would only happen with the massive inflation , so need to anderstand that "downtrend" refers to real trend ( deflated trend).
GOod Trading
Dear Boris, thanks.
Ivan, I agree with Boris here. This downturn will be very long and of enormous magnitude. Eastern european countries have no hope of surviving intact. Also, in the end everybody in the world is connected to the US consumer. Have you checked how much Germany exports to US, or how many German banks failed due to US subprime crisis?
Don't take this downturn lightly and think that it will be US-only. This recession will be globalized.
Dear Greenie,
FOr the record,While we agree, I want to emphasize that this recesssion/slowdown, call whatever, is going to become famous more for it's longevity and volatility than depth.
I could be wrong, but I think everything will be done to prevent it from being very deep, which, by way of Japanes example, will be LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG
Good Trading
Dear Boris
I live Gold Coast near Brisbane, Australia. The area is like Florida US...I think.
Real estate prices are still strong (almost double last 5 years). The local economy is supported by the mining boom and tourism and favourable climate.
If you lived in such an area would you be buying or selling real estate? (I have received a good unsolicited offer to sell)
Do you see advantage of liquid portfolio in the years to come. (Most of my money is in real estate).
John
Dear John,
I live in such area, Netania Israel as beautiful of place as you can find...
Sandy beaches, Sun and Fun, Cliff overlooking the Mediterranean See. You can not ask for anything better...
Well, Ok Brisbane, must be nice from what I hear.
I have stated repeatedly that Australian Dollar may have topped for a long time. That would mean that market feels that commodities may not be the place to be and the BOOM you describe, while not turning into bust, may lose a lot its shine.
In economic terms, I would suggest that you be diversified ( that is a second issue). Diversification is better now better than putting all eggs in one, real estate, basket. What is trinapiring in USA real estate, could play out to a lesser extent anywhere in the world assuming that people in Brisbane do not all own their real estate mortgage free, and even then... Which brings us to the third issue... Demographics.
I would love to know who are Brisbanian's what is the age distribution and where the immigiration comes if it does. Who is buying the properties there.
Not knowing answers to those issues , I can not proceed on this issue.
All in all, if you would like to supply more info, it would of interest to all of us, but here is what I think.
If you are all in REstate, I would suggest to diversify at least some (20/30%) Out of the AUSTRALIAN Dollar and into some Dollar and GOLD. If you feel more uncomfortable after considering the issues you may want to diversify more. Dollar could be purchased now, GOld I would suggest 5% now and rest ( watch our blog, for signal). YOu may want to be liquid, cause it is great to be liquid at times such as now. YOu have the stocks down 60% from their top on the inflation adjusted bases compated to the bottom of 2002. Now that is not a bad time to toss some money into the equities. Especially USA/JAPANESE equitities as their currencies are relatively cheap.
Please take all I said with a grain of salt. I am not an Adviser and I do not know many things I need to know about you to give you btotherly wisdom ( not an advise). But if you would like to keep with us and we will know more about you in time. Things will fall in place and you will get the feel what you need to do, without my explicit advise.
Good to hear from you and good luck and GOOD TRADING
Hello Dear Boris....
As far as which jurisdictions perform well economically going forward, this will depend on the degree to which they prospered, produced and improved their employment picture, on the back of fictitious capital (FC)....Those that relied on FC extensively will be crushed, IMO, regardless of how they appear at the moment....
And Boris....I was looking at the gold chart and the pinkie has recovered some 60% of its recent decline with the gold price not dropping very much....So what should I be understanding here...what is the chart telling me...
S&P500 futures are down 35 points at the moment 1290 on the S&P. Rolling out of my MDS short here rather than waiting for the opening bell on Tuesday. Many thanks Boris...
Dear Xerxes,
Gold is dropping considerably. 14 bucks as i write.
I think we should wait for a better entry point.
Of, course, I could be wrong, but so far, our exit at 900 was precious.
Good Trading
Dear Damien,
I am not sure of your purpose.
MDS in on the buy, that does not usually mean automatic buy. We saw MDS lose previous buy.
But I would start nibbling long around 1260 on ESmini futures, which is about 1260 SPX
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
Let me clarify. I was unable to close out my short on Friday due to computer issues so have just done so. I have not bought anything yet but will keep that 1260 figure in mind. Many thanks. Damien
Dear Damien,
OK, understand now.
Good Trading
Boris,
Good morning from the frigid midwest. About 10 degrees and snowing. I see the panic is setting in.
old john
Dear John, I did some buying in this "panic" I was looking for 1260 and got it( see Damien's comment). Let us hope Your/Readers week is as profitable as this position is now is. I raised my stops to 1262.90 and sit there. I am watching YEN, it was supposed to make the last spike today Tuesday accordint to my writint(in the post). Looks like it is behaving that way. Let's hope. Dollar is screeming up and Gold is screeming down. So far so good.
Good Trading
Boris,
I have been watching the yen since I first started on this Blog. I do not participate in futures market. I am sitting here waiting until tomorrow. I am in all cash in the trading account.
old john
Dear Boris, short 2 jpy contracts at .9469. We'll see how that plays out. I tried a couple spots last week bailed with no loss. I thought about putting in a sell at the .9493 level, but didn't expect it to hit. Couldn't believe my eyes when I started up Tradestation this morning. Should the yen wither from here ?
Thanks, Daveo
just to be precise, Euro never reached 1.5000, it was just in the vicinty of 1.4960.
OK, worked my way up to .9480 avg, 3 contracts. Looked like alot of margin calls today on carry trades, alot of panic. Hope that's the end of that nonsense. There's alot of meat on this bone. Thanks Boris.
Daveo
Dear Dave,
We are at a critical point for all fainancials. If YEN does not stop here we will be looking ar a real crash as the "mini crash" we already had.
In any case that is not muc cnsolation to you I presume. So here it is...
To the best of my calculations the Dollar Bear Market is over and we have called/documented it better than erhaps anybody that I have read...
One of the only remaining currencys to go into bear against Dollar is YEN and it is my belief that it, cyclically , speaking should be hapenning right now.
As always no guarantees for anyting but my best analysis, which may sometimes be wrong.
GOod Trading
Dear DollarProaragon
Thanks for your remarks.
If you and your customers need any of our services, ( see the profile) we will gladly provide such. Our strenght is system writing and Autotrader Design. With the custoers or our own Idea we can and do create the "designer" trading systems.
Thanks and Good Trading
Boris,
I have a question about ACAS. I see that it has pulled back quite a bit and I think that the reason is that it is being confused with ACA Holdings ( ACAH) which is in the subprime mess. Do you still like ACAS? It does have a tasty dividend.
old john
Dear John,
ENjoy the idle time,
Tomorrow may/will be hectic.
Good Trading
Dear John,
I like ACAS still, and while I have discarded few days ago on a small rally ( shed 10% at that time), I still have GLAD, which, in my opinion, is a better to hold. Again no guarantees, but that is my thinking.
GOod Trading
Dear John,
Come to think of it...
The above gave me an idea for a little joke...
You can be only either ACAS or glad(GLAD)...
Good Trading
Boris,
Nice pun, thanx.
old john
Dear Readers,John,
It is funny, what seems like a joke or interesting phrase to one, may not be to others, but let me explain why the above sentenece is interesting, not funny though.
ACAS, in Hebrew means to draw ( usually blood(sorry)).
So, when I conjured that joke, in my mind was going this:
Either one can be in ACAS and bleeding or be glad not being in it. But GLAD did not seem to do much better last couple weeks either.
SO, forgive me if I am in my own world with this joke, but it heppens , sometimes...
Good Trading
Thanks Boris, I wasn't looking for a guarantee, just your opinion. Tomorrow could get scary for the markets. Daveo
Dear Dave,
I know your are not looking for guarantees.
Believe it or not, due to the conditions in the market, I feel almost compelled to say that every time( this time) as the emotions( you said it) run high and tomorro could be crazy.
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
do you think this sell-off is overdone (emotions!)? Do you think we can go much bellow 1200 SPX in next 2-3 months?
My conclusion in this moment could be, it's maybe better to trade currencies now and stay aside in shares because it's very hard to follow this market. Yes, you gave us instructions, 2-3 days ago, how to trade and not mind about bull/bear market but I think it's much easier to do for you than for us. I think we should concentrate on following MDS signals, if we can earn 600% in 1-2 years, it's a sin to want more (ha-ha). Boris, thanks for us not to be lost in this explosive world!
Good trading
Dear Ivan,
I appreciate you telling us that currencies are better , to trade, or so it seems.
Frankly, I trade more currencies than anything else these days. So, I am with you, but most of people do not know, and/or have a "feel" for currencies. They think they have a better handle on equities. That is why the majority of people ask for equity info.
That being the case, once you are in crash(or mini crash) there is hardly any way to predict exact prices where things will stop. It is even more day to day than usual when the crash happens.
SO, I thought the 1260 was a reasonable target and we did hit it today. It came from usual ananlysis I do daily. Nothing new... Thanks God. I have a strong feeling that we may have bottomed today, but cannot exclude the possibility of secondary panic reaction when ordinary citizens of USA wake up and see the devastation of their portfolios. Numbers/Apoints look mindboggling. We could go down 300 points in SPX, which is 960! ( GOD help us). Possibility is there, but I think we could have sharp gap openning and than with 1260 being the floor. This 1260 maybe more hope then anything else, cause I never claim, that I know where the markets will go. I just keep probing with my "blind man's tool" stick and see what I can find...
Good Trading and Good Luck to all USA and World citizens. Nobody was spared today, you know!
Did you know that in real terms SPX already gave back 60% of 2002-2007 gains?!!!
Yes, if you had a 1 Dollar in the market July 2007, it now has a purchasing power of 40c.
Dear Fellow Americans, I truly share your pain, cause for the large part, I am exposed to the same insanity of our GOVERNMENT and FED policies that destroy us as humans/investors and turns us into "gambling" rats.
Good Trading
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