Dear Readers ( especially Israeli Readers), Since Dec 2006? our target for SHEKEL was 3.78 Dollars Per Shekel. Congrats, we have arrived. As I write this post Shekel Stands Exactly at 3.78! Now, we expect the SHEKEL to have some more strength and TOP at 3.50 - 370 area within two weeks of JEWISH PASSOVER April 21 2008. This was the time aimed initially as well. Shekel will decline for 2-3 years thereafter with inital target 4.50(2009) and 4.80(2012). TA-100 will suffer considerably as foreigners start taking their money home, but could be helped later by weak SHEKEL.
Decouple This!
All Readers, implications of this are worldwide, why? Israel, like all other near developed countries benefited from low Dollar and capital inflows were high. That is about to END, and the world can not shrug off the economy consuming close to 1/4 of world GDP. When America dives, Everyone will dive with it. All who call for BRIC decoupling from USA are nuts! Another implication this has is that Dollar, while turning, will/can not honestly take off till April 2008.
Start your morning at this Grouptation updated( thanks Ivan) link, put it in your favorite list for asset oscillators.
08:01 ET, OK has somebody told GOLD it needs to go DOWN?
Decouple This!
All Readers, implications of this are worldwide, why? Israel, like all other near developed countries benefited from low Dollar and capital inflows were high. That is about to END, and the world can not shrug off the economy consuming close to 1/4 of world GDP. When America dives, Everyone will dive with it. All who call for BRIC decoupling from USA are nuts! Another implication this has is that Dollar, while turning, will/can not honestly take off till April 2008.
Start your morning at this Grouptation updated( thanks Ivan) link, put it in your favorite list for asset oscillators.
08:01 ET, OK has somebody told GOLD it needs to go DOWN?
18 comments:
Morning Boris,
Thanks for all your help lately navigating these markets.
Regards,
Damien
Dear Damien,
Glad to help.
Cheers.
Good Trading
Hello Dear Boris....
I was reading this piece from a newsletter....
We now know we are in the intermediate Bearish scenario for stocks, and it is highly likely the Dow Industrials will hit 11,500ish or lower before this Bear market (which started according to Dow Theory in July 2007) ends. Before the next leg down, which will likely either feel like a crash or actually be one, we are getting a small corrective rally, which in all likelihood started this afternoon, Wednesday. We... [expect]...horrid prospects for the stock market over the next 4 to 6 months based upon a very ugly pattern in the VIX. All we can say is, enjoy every second of the next week and a half. There is a good possibility the next phi mate turn date will mark the top of this short-term rally. This suggests we are in the midst of a stock market crash that started at 14,200 in October 2007, and is likely to continue to at least 11,500 the first half of 2008......
Just another opinion to chew on :-)
Boris,
Good Morning.
old john
Dear xerxes,
Average downturn of a BEAR market has been 25% so the number for DOW is about 14200-14200/4=10650!
Ok,
Good Trading
Good Morning dear John
GOod Trading
Hello Dear Boris.....
Should the Dow actually get a 10 or 11 handle, should we not expect the JPY to rally hard against the buckeroo?
Dear Xerxes, JPY rally ... perhaps but not a STRONG rally. That would kill DOW/NIKKEY and the entire frikin world.
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
does this story about Shekel mean that USD will be stronger in next 2-3 years (you mentioned 2012) in general? Recently you wrote about 18 months. Any change in thoughts or...? Thanks
Dear Ivan,
What I wrote fore SHEKEL is, most likely, for SHEKEL and I did not yet disclose exact format of SHEKEL decline. It will correspond to the rest of the CURRENCIES forecast in some form, But SHEKEL will have it's own signature in this world play of currencies, which may not be the same as EURO, even though , they looked identical last 3 years.
Good Trading
Thanks Boris. Sorry if I often ask for detailed questions but I would like to have clear picture. Good trading
Dear Ivan,
Please keep me on my toes.
I like when somebody remembers what I said and perceives that i am contradicting myself.
1) that can happen( honestly only)
2) there is a reason, behind the madness of what I say...
In this case it the method behind madness, cause, it is not reasonable to assume that EUROSHEKEL will be a straight line for long.
Good Trading
Good Morming Boris and thank you for your blog.
On your chart posted you suggested the possibility exists for re-test or penetration of yesterdays lows........is that before or after Jan 25 YellowBR high ? Just wanted to know what kind of odds your charts tell you ?
You have a great mind my friend.
Dear Hamakua,
the time difference between these tests is 15-25 trading days. That puts us at 19-29 calendar days. So, 9 + 19 would be 28 January and 9+29 would be 6 February
There rest is up to all mighty...
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
Over the week end I was looking at the balance sheets from the 5 largest broker. In summary it looks like this: In 2003 they had assets of $2 trillion with a net worth of $98 billion or 4.83%
As of the most recent 2007 filing, the total assets were $4.35 trillion and a net worth of $148 billion, 3.40%.
Forgetting about all the write offs from sub prime, etc, if they needed to get back to the same net worth to asset ratio, these 5 brokers would have to liquidate over $1.3 trillion in assets.
For reference, the market cap of the S&P 500 is $12 trillion.
As another point, for each $10 billion in write downs, the broker or bank must liquidate about $200 billion in assets.
Just an observation.
John B
Dear John,
As always an excellent observation. I think that gargantuan numbers you present, may still be understanted, as nobody really knows the exact OTC derivative exposure of thse "brokers/banks". Why do I feel one day they will close the doors after they bought all the GOLD in the world and wave US(A) goodbye
Good Trading
Bought a few QLD this am
Dear Lag,
Welcome,
GOod Luck
GOod Trading
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