Please see the updated(Thanks Ivan) Asset Groups at GROUPTATION Link on the right. Not
e two things among others: SP500 close to moving up, Ocillator Up there and Dollar is getting closer to levels where upturn my start.
e two things among others: SP500 close to moving up, Ocillator Up there and Dollar is getting closer to levels where upturn my start.Dear Readers The National SOPITALIST Casino will soon be closed for today and the Wall Street ( WELFARE STATE ) will go to burbs to count money they screwed ordinary citizens out of. We did not trade today and our Muni Funds have been up and will pay dividends. I am about 10% invested in stocks, conservatively. It is now anticipated that we may retest the recent lows, before we get a rally. While our StockMarketSystem is in BBBB, best it can be for rally, we can not ignore the fact that we are in the Bear Market and can not take the Buys Very seriously and "load up". That is why advise is to have a lower profile in longs and higher profile in shorts. Also, the volatility dictates to consider big draw downs.
10:15 ET, 1/13/2008, Friday Data Puts Our StockMarketSystem is in BXSB status
01:34 ET, GOLD is up a bit this morning, outook remains the same. Longs should trail, Shorts should stop and neutral if desired can play it via very cheap out of the money options. We put the people in at 600 and then again at 800 and now are cautious advising trailing and/or collecting profits. Dollar seems to be weak again and that is expected until we see the Dollar Oscillator come down further to levels where it has nowhere but up to go. This should not take more than 1-2 weeks. Therefore people with large ANTI-DOLLAR positions should be gradually getting out. Oil seems to be the earliest to realise the recession is coming and gradually declined and will continue so, unless some exogenous event forces the move up. Bonds, while they are really, really overpriced until the stock market stabilizes it will be hard to call for interest rates to rise. We put the people in 3-5 Year Safe,Government Fixed Income Securities at the absolute top 5.3! and suggest that they run them into maturity, or get out gradually, or upon the next Bond Bear Signal, which is very likely to coincide with the start of Dollar Bull.
05:38 ET, for the first time since I put people in GOLD/SILVER (early DEC) the Silver Daily status became SELL ( today)...
13 comments:
Hello Boris,
I just noticed your safehaven article. You mentioned that "Another implication this has is that Dollar, while turning, will/can not honestly take off till April 2008." Does that mean Euro, Swiss Franc and other currencies will hang around at the current levels for three more months until you enjoy your passover? :)
Best,
Greenie
Dear Greenie,
GBP/EURO, may make more progress down by then than, SHEKEL. That is the idea, but in general the motion could be slow till Mar/April.
Yes, that is the thinking.
We could actully have dollar jump up and down into Mar/April
Good Trading
Ok, I understand....you people are special :).
Have a good weekend.
G.
Dear Boris, What is your idea of slow/fast? For example, what are the targets for Euro in April, and then afterwards? You mentioned shekel targets in your article.
Thx, G.
Dear Greenie,
I think, the thing that is special with Israli economy is that flows of capital affect it with more delay than EUROPE.
Here is why I think so.
THere is still no panic for foreigners to run out of ISRAEL, but I think there is a panicchic of ISRAELI's oversees that things are not going too well in the old CAPITALIST world and they are flowing back to HOME or flowing their capital home first. ONce that is over ( takes time), all that will be left are those who will be flowing their money out...
I will update about the levles soon. Please remind me to do so in mid FEB or so.
At this point I would say that $USDollar could go to about 86-88 area within next 12 months.
Good Trading
Boris,
This is just my " musing" but I think the pc ratio may never hit the panic this time is because of Helicoptor Ben. Everyone, even me, who is a market participant knows the Feds routine. Who would want to be short close to expiration when you can get a spike up if one of these clowns just open their mouths? Granted, it is only a spike but it can hurt financially.
old john
Dear John,
Reasonable Muzings.
I hope you are exactly right.
GOod Trading
Dear Boris,
Another similar projection based on past data from another blog...
"Day 6 $SPX < 400 DMA
so far this is playing out exactly as in October 2000.
Day 7 (Monday)should make a new intraday low (below 1379).
Then we go up 100 points in less than 3 weeks."
Cheers!
Dear Sang,
I am not sure, how is this derived, but it is not far from what seems to be the most posible sceanrio now, one more ultra short panic and up.............
Good Trading
Boris,
With the USD testing lows/highs against the EUR, JPY, CHF today do you think these lows from December will hold?
Jason
I am leaning towards a buy of these retests.
Dear Jason, they will be held or broken marginally. Chances of break are higher in SWISS FRANK, EURO and JPY in that order of preference.
GOod Trading
Hello Dear Boris....
Is it possible Boris, that the gold chart has the pinkie rise all the way back up without the price descending?
I never made the short JPY trade you talked of earlier....
FF Rate prediction closing in on .75 bp cut
Dear Xerxes,
If GOLD continues moves higher PINK will start moving Lower...
I think it was time to and it is time to gradually get out of ANTI-DOLLAR.
I siad this many times and will say the same. If one is looking to catch absolute bottom, it may, most likely, not happen.
It does not matter how much will fed cut.
JAPAN is in the recession, how much higher YEN can go?
As much as the unwind of carry-trade will take it. How much of it is still left in weak hands I do not know, but we must be approaching to the carry-trade affect end of some sort.
I still have the options against YEN and some of them already matured with profits. I am putting some more within next couple days.
I think pivotal day for Dollar is 18/21 January and we are almost there.
GOod Trading
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