N QQQQ 48.12 - 48.57
N SPX 14.22 - 14.28
N QID 42.02(41.86,4153) - 43.01
14:01 ET, My BKX projections now allow lower attraction points. While we will fine tune this as we go, here are couple points for Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr respectively we are looking at 70,67,64,60 Not looking good. I am selling few bank shares i have upon the next SELL from MDS. If you can imagine for a minute... at 60 the BKX will be 50% down from world record predicted by myself ( DEC 2006) and esteblished by BKX ( in FEB 2007) 121 and change? Hallelujah!
"Fortunately for America - and the world - the US budget deficit is a healthy 1.2pc of GDP ($163bn). Washington has the wherewithal to fund a fiscal blitz."
This is what we read in the reference Dear Lag gave to us(Not Lag's Fault).
Now this is BS of all BSes I have ever heard. US budget deficit is not 1.2pc of GDP. What about all the "off budget" items. IRAQ War, social security and medicare obligations that are not showing "on budget" just these total Many T's like in Trillions , Not B's like in Billions.
Sorry, folks. it is due to this kind of reporting that nobody really knows how much in trouble we are. Of course, stealing SS money is not considered when talking about small deficits... My o my!
15:32 ET, Please make sure that you go totally neutral or into high yield high quality stocks only if we break the lows of August on SPX.
35 comments:
Hi Boris,
The BKX fell bellow to 84 this morning. Is the BKX reacting to Gold?
Dear Hopper, BKX is slightly up... it is not up like the market in general, if this is what you mean...
I do not think so, simply BKX is having it's own blues, perhaps more truobloes in the banking business coming?
It is not beaging as good as I thought...
Good Trading
Boris,,,I have a question that I have been thinking of a few days now concerning your model and Gold.
Now I understand that the GLD ETF has to buy bullion as more investors buy ETF.
Last few weeks media attention has focused more and more on gold and GLD has been reco'd a lot.
I would think that this has totally changed the gold market and created more exagerated swings in gold price. I would guess as Jan 1 08 that money has flowed into GLD and maybe this explanes major jumps in price.
Also, model Anti-Sopitalsit chart may not take this into account.
I want to add that if gold corrects, GLD will also correct, investors then sell their GLD ETF positions, and then GLD will sell bullion. This will also exaggerate swings in gold spot price,, also futures.
By the way,,,GLD holdings now over 600 tons of bullion,,,making it hold more than many Central Banks.
So I guess what I'm saying is that the GLD has totally changed the bullion/futures markets and caused patterns which may be different than past patterns.
Dear Tim,
What you say is correct. GLD has a profound influence on GOLD. For all the reasons you mention and the real reason, now a small investor can nibble at gold! for few dollars at a time...
Yes, now let us look our GOLD model,,, it s not based on GOLD or GLD at all. Like for any ohter industry, it is based on groups of securities . For GOLD that means gold mining compaines...
So, that is the same as it ever was... If you read about how these oscillators are construncted ( Ivan has discussed recently as well)( go to OSCILLAOTRreading in GREETINS), you will see what is it looking at.
Good Trading
OK,,thanks,,I'll read that. I do not understand this model yet,,,that I admit and am trying to get handle on it.
Let me just add one thing(at the risk of making fool of my self as I have not read your suggestion yet)
I do think that GLD has changed the mining stocks also. I have seen this subject discussed by some of the Gold newsletter writters, and they say that the GLD has not really changed the investments into the gold mining sector.(of course they want us to invest in the stocks they reco)
I tend to disagree though, as I feel that the PM sector is a small sector not followed by the mainstream investor. Because of this, I feel that every investment dollar that is put into GLD is one less dollar that would/could have been invested into the mining sector.
I say this because don't think the PM mining sector has behaved the same as it did in past bull markets. Maybe I'm wrong,,,but that is my take at present.
I really don't think we will know what to expect this time around partially because of the GLD influence on the gold market.
Of course the dying dollar also changes things too,,,LOL
GE has trashed it's August lows solidly today. Heavy weight in SPX leading the way or being drug down. Not as low as BKX, but lower than rest of the market. Hidden story somewhere ?
Dear tim,
Methodology I use relies on "potentcial stocks going up or down" and simply taking the ratio. This "potential" has nothing to do with anything except technical behavoir of the stock. That is it.
That means that it is totally discjoint from any fundamental relationship between anything. If it still holds that "when gold goes up the stocks will trend higher" then methids will work forever.
Now have you ever seen gold going up and stocks going down(mining stocks i mean) for any sustainable period... No. And i do not think you will see it ever.
Good trading
Dear tim,
Methodology I use relies on "potentcial stocks going up or down" and simply taking the ratio. This "potential" has nothing to do with anything except technical behavoir of the stock. That is it.
That means that it is totally discjoint from any fundamental relationship between anything. If it still holds that "when gold goes up the stocks will trend higher" then methids will work forever.
Now have you ever seen gold going up and stocks going down(mining stocks i mean) for any sustainable period... No. And i do not think you will see it ever.
Good trading
Boris,
put /call ratio is starting to move up.
old john
Dear Daveo
thanks for the info.
Nevertheless we are on a very likely BUY signal in stocks.
The danger's are coming, hopefully later in the month...
Good Trading
Dear John,
Thanks, That could help, as that is one of the only hard indicators that is unfavorable for LONGS at this juncture
Good Trading
Good morning Boris. Any comment on Euro today?
Best,
G.
Dear Greenie,
The fact that GOLD is higher and EURO is almost unchanged speaks for itself. EURO/CHF/GBP look washed up. JPY still has the carry-trade unwind going for it, but that is it.
Good Trading
Boris,
I'm data mining the Nasdaq Composite going back to 1971. More statistics to follow, but what stands out is that since 1984, the Nasdaq Composite has never closed lower more than 8 consecutive days. Yesterday was day 7...
Dear Blaine
Thanks
Good Trading
Boris,
last one hour and one/half the s&p has almost a 2 to 1 put /call but there are still many equity calls being bought. Moving in the right direction but very slowly.
old john
Dear John,
Thanks for excellent reporting
Good Trading
Thank you Boris.
Boris, All,
Since 1971, the Nasdaq has traded lower for 7 or more consecutive days 36 times. More than 8 days down only 7 times, which all occured in 1973,74,75,82,84. Today is day 8.
The average drawdown on these 36declines was -6.9%, with a min of -1.1% and max of -22.6%. We are currently at -8.6%.
10 tradings days after the streak ended, the average return was positive 56% of the time averaging a gain of +3.7%, with min +0.1% and max +11.6%. The average return was negative 44% of the time averaging a loss of -3.7%, with min -0.1% and max -10.5%.
20 trading days after the streak ended, the average return was positive 58% of the time averaging a gain of +5.1%, with min +0.2% and max +18.2%. The average return was negative 42% of the time averaging a loss of -5.5% with min -1.1% and max -15.6%.
As you can see, this historical market action that we have now entered into is completely random, with about a 50/50 chance of being higher into late January/early February. And our range of outcomes is +18% to -15%, with expected returns around ZERO.
Dear Blaine,
I ready your data as expressing the following
"fasten the seat belts" turbulance is expected!
Long Live Volatility!
That is where we will need MDS and summation combod to go up and down with this BS
Good Trading
Blaine
THX for the hard work
LAG
Hi Boris,
we have more than two weeks till January 25. Do you anticipate big stocks rally, or...?
Thanks and regards
Dear Ivan, If what we now think is correct(i.e. we are in the bear market) then I prdict the next rally not be more than 62 FIb retracement of the current decline...
Good Trading
Thank Boris. Only one question more...
I am not sure but I think you wrote recently that you can eventually see one new high in 2008. Am I right or I have bad memory? If you have really written this, can you tell us more about that?
Thanks
Dear Ivan,
YOu may have seen me say 2009-10 period not 2008.
Yes, somewhere I have said that and I mean it.
but can not guarantee. I guess better way to say is that I see a big rally somwhere there and it could be a new 'real top' if Dollar goes strong as well.
Real means the Dollar deflated SPX ( see chart at the end of the page)
Good Trading
Thanks Dear Boris. It's clear now.
News Bit
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/07/ccview107.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
Boris,
Are we getting the capitulation today? This thing is falling like a rock fast.
Dow just took out November low convincingly. SPX did too. We are at critical support here, the government should be stepping in shortly or else we crash.
Boris and all,
The market is showing severe weakness, in spite of my math showing a probable bounce here...Something is really going wrong underneath this market.....perhaps the chickens are coming home to roost...
Mark L.
The USD is lower against most currencies but doesn't seem to be getting hit like the market.
Looks to me that we are hanging around major support levels in the major indexes DOW,SPX,QQQQ for to long. I would figure to touch this area then come up off it nicely if we are going to rally. This is the 3rd visit to these strong support areas. Maybe we are ready to break them???
Jason
The white brick road seems to have a firm grip on things.
Dear Dave, Exactly.
Good Trading
Hello dear Boris....
I made my fortune selling early was attributed to JP Morgan...
Any new thoughts on the short yen play?
Dear Xerxes,
Thanks for reminding me about the "owner" of the quote.
I can only advise what I am doing, which is INCREMENTALLY "shorting' YEN. Which does not mean shorting, but doing structures that amount to betting on the short side.
Good Trading
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