Does anybody see how the Precious Metals acting not so precious? And did somebody say Crater?
N QQQQ 49.41 - 49.80
N SPX 1426 - 1436
N QID 40.21(40.10) - 40.86(41) (41.20)(41.60)(42)
I suggest that you the Reader buy things you always wanted to buy and could not afford. Feel like in the Mall. Do not go over board. I do not suggest for a trader more than 30% being invested at this juncture. For investor ... Investor can go from 15% up to 20% or so...
Dear Readers, things could and will get cheaper, but if you need a coat, will you wait till summer. So, think if you need a coat or half a coat bargain for it.
10:13 ET, Amazingly enough EURO/CHF are almost unchanged... Ha... Haha.. Ha... Decouple this! , Remeber Brutish Pound, Soon We will see Brutish EURO
10:21 ET, First Apoint of QID (40.86) just hit ( second one 41 also hit 10:27 Et)
10:29 ET, Notice the APOINT updates for QID
10:50 ET, BKX just tested the 83.92 62% FIB support, that must hold or we will see stronger downdraft.
12:14 ET, BKX is now about FIB support 84.01
14:29 ET, BKX 83.16 looks like breaking this important support 83.92
14:52 ET, we have left last QID resistance in the dast. Make sure that you are not over extended here. If you are either go back to under 30% trade able funds invested and/or protect them with options for the weekend possible crash(which you can lift Monday)
As I stated before, I was increasing investments in the following GIM/FAM/TEI/KMP , amazingly enough these are up or unchanged and mix of BDC's and BANKS that represent my investments are down relatively hard, but plenty offset by the INCOME vehicles above. Not only that, these pay me average 6% income. If this is how you are invested then nothing to worry about. Speculative investments(money that is dedicated to speculation ) should be kept to manageable under 30% of that money, in all cases.
15:50 ET, For entire 2007 we watched the level of 48.25 and when it broke on the upside it was an event that propelled Q's to to highs not seen since 2002. GUESS WHAT We are now in 2008 and the Q's are resting on it . Will Q's use this all important level as the support this time? By the way this is also 62% FIB retrace (48.46)
16:11 ET, Q's are now at 48.45 reversing on 62% FIB point
Now, we put people in to the FIXED income at the top of interest rates at 5.30. Amazing the money our readers that invested then(June 2007) in 5 Year bonds have made... Just principle is over 20% in less than 6 months and no work HUH!
47 comments:
Dear Boris,
Good morning.
Last time i mentioned on Nov 30th about this possibility.
"... i don;t think this is the real Uptrend.
I think S&P could stall very shortly around Dec 5th-7th time frame and probably 1503 and again head downwards towards the 1365 ....range.. infact probably slightly breach that to make a 52 wk Low and then the real uptrend could start into the 1st March 2008.
Cheers
11/30/2007 6:51 AM"
So in retrospective around DEc 7th S&P reached the 1507 range and went to an intrday high of 1523 on 11th before starting the down trend again.
S&P hit a low of 1429 earlier today .
Probably i guess by Jan 14th we could form the bottom and the rally should pick up steam into the March quarter.
Cheers and have a good trading day and good weekend.
Regards
Dear Pattern_Solver,
Thanks for your updates, insightfull indeed.
Good Trading to you as well my friend
Boris,
No SPX rally to 1470 as I expected. Russell broke previous lows. Following sentiment picture, I now expect a negative close today and then up next week.
Loaded up on Euro short.
Greenie
Dear Greenie,
I thought that what Blaine reprdocued and what laidi wrote was not necessarily a timing peace, but the kind of peace that anybod could interpret anyway they wanted.
We knew going in that Dollar is in the last stages of blow out and and the YEN will probably pushed to limits ( 107) which we got close today(108). So, we were not confused that is important. Agree with EURO shorts.
Good trading
Hi Boris! You got it Greenie. Expecting a 1420 low today or Monday, then UP.
Dear SQROOT, welcome
Good to hear from you.
Good Trading
Boris,
Watching CNBC, had a bunch of " talking heads"- They are saying " sell, sell" - one mentioned a better buying opportunity later this month.
For What its worth
old john
Dear John,
They could be right for once(::)
Good Trading
Sentiment is finally bearish. It is not good time to hold shorts here any more. I expect SPX to close gap near 1470 and then plunge very sharply.
Boris,
maybe
old john
Good day,
I was playing around with some of the calendar/trading day cycle that I read in Dynamic trading.
144 days/ 72 day
Then boris and pattern_solver suggest the 10th of Jan; along with the YBR.
From the (DJIA):
10/11/07 high + 72 trading days = 1/11/08 (around)
10/31/07 high + 72 calendar days = 1/11/08
From my understanding; these would suggest a movement in either direction on the 1/11/08. (around there is my point)
bye
Dear Brandon
Thanks a lot.
Good Analysis there.
Good Trading
Posted in wrong area
covered my RUT short with QLD at the last bottom
we may have another leg down here tho--Im now 5% long 2x
Oh I almost forgot
I saw Kudlow on CNBC
what a foul oder
Dear Lag,
Thanks
Kudlow, what a fool of S
Good Trading
SPX's MA400 reached, but today would be the 4th consecutive Day Close Down on the SPX and I know from my research that since 1990, the 4th consecutive Close down covers 97% of all the Closes Down (2064 Closes on 2123).
The 5th Consecutive Close down covers 99% (!) of all the Closes Down (2107 Closes on 2123).
Not to say we cannot have 6 or 8 consecutive Closes down, but chances are very slim.
If Monday is gonna close down, being the 5th day down, Tuesday has 99% odds to close up basing on history.
Just a personal tip: know the odds before you make your moves
That was from another blog and he is good
Dear Lag, thanks,
Yes, those statistics exact or not are definitely in the ballpark and correct...
That is why we are suggesting that trader be at this point somewhat below 30% invested in the trade.
Good Tradig
Dear Lag,
Yes, I've read posting from 2sweeties before- he/she's also been very insightful and accurate as well (has contacts and info from trainers of trading desks at the 'big boys').
Very similar to Boris' insight as to what may happen.
We will most likely have a bounce very soon (tomorrow to sometime next week), and the market will recover until the 'BIG ONE' hits later on.
Will start adding LONG positions carefully.
Cheers!~
Another thought from a responce I got from a very good trader
Actually it would be only the first down day on the S&P since the index closed flat yesterday. The Dow closed positive so again only the first day. That being said if we close the day near the lows it should trigger a Bollinger band crash trade. That does have very high odds for some kind of rebound.
Dear Lag,Sam, Readers,
The only probelm with these kind of statistics is what do you do with the fact that next down day could be 23% down like 1987...
Well, that is why one invests by gradually building the positions. Especially if you have system like MDS that shows that Max losing days is 10 days. this means you need to spread your investments over 10 days if market goes against you. and probably save the 50-70% for days 5-10.
Good Trading
Dear Boris and friends,
Some interesting analysis here...
Click Link
Basically tells to watch the NYA in late day trading today to see which direction the BIG BOYS take... apparently, they are currently running models to judge their strategy for employment numbers vs. 25/50bps rate cut...
Boris
Totaly agree and Im not planning on getting very long--25-30% amybe
Boris,
In for 10% for the day,
old john
Dear sang,
Thanks, good info.
Good Trading
Dear John,
Good for you. Good luck
Good trading
from briefing.com:
"The Fed announced it is increasing the size of its next two emergency loan auctions to $30 billion from $20 billion. The auctions will be held on Jan. 14 and Jan. 28. The Fed plans on having biweekly auctions for as long as necessary to improve liquidity in the credit markets
"I know from my research that since 1990"
IMHO, research since 1990 means crap here . Since 1990, we had 16 years of bull market and 2 years of bear market. Stats are biased. Also, you need to keep in mind that the market can go down 6 consecutive days instead of 5 with the 6th one being 6% down and reversal of 5.5% making it only a small down day on paper.
Boris,
It looks like the market jumped off the YBR and is following the WBR perfectly since 12/26. Therefore, I will be looking for a bottom on 1/10, with a huge rally into 1/25.
Dear Boris, Blaine...
I have to agree that things are looking like the WBR now?
WBR is supposed to be for very volatile situations.... after the Fed's last 25bp cut, there was that huuuuge drop followed by that huge head-fake rally the next morning... that might have been the skipping point from YBR to WBR... just a thought.
Dear greenie,
You are absolutely right... The stats are biased, but i had once calculated this over 100 years and results are not much far from the numbers given here. In any case, the real question is what you asked... What do you do with the days like the decliners of 4-23%...
Yeah, the only way to fight that is to have a well tested system and know the distribution of drawdown after the signal and investing according to that.
As I said, for this means that i kee 50-70% of the investable(tradable) money for days 5-10...
Good Trading
Dear Blaine,Sang,
Yes, I have always assumed that WBR will have more influence here, cause:
1) MDS forced me into it
2) GANN suggests 10 th as important point and 25 being high, I could not think but assign 10 Low
3) Mirror ( remember that) is calling for 10 being low not high
Good trading
Away from trading system. Can someone quote me the USD/JPY and the EUR/USD?
Thanks
Jason
Dear Jason,
EUR 1.4762
JPY 108.45
Good Trading
Buy QLD--also lots of falling wedges here---do or die
Now 20% long
Dear Lag,
Find,
Please do not go too far here.
And see the update of the main line post.
Good trading and good Luck
Boris,
just added another 5% here. now up to 15%
old john
I've been watching a huge symmetrical trinagle since last years lows. Sure looks to me like the S&P just violated the trendline of the last two major lows on the daily chart. Hoping it doesn't close below. Thoughts?
Dear John,
That is manageable.
Good Trading
Looks like NO closing rally today.
Noticed the volume today was high but not reversal type volume like the past Aug and Nov lows. I am leaning towards a blow off day to the downside Mon/Tues.
Jason
Dear Jason,
I am tilting to the same direction, but probability exists for market to boucne before, therefore relatively small speculative investment can not hurt much. Considering MDS tells us that we will get the Sell( go higher) sometime in next 8 days.
Good Trading
NYSE (551) and NASDAQ (468) new lows are near bottom territory. But the VIX (24) and VXN (29) are not there yet.
Gap up and rally monday.
Dear Blaine, Greenie,
Thanks
Good Trading
Boris, is that spam I smell????? That make money from home site looks *very* suspect.
Boris,
SPAM. My mother used to ship spam to me when I was in Vietnam.
I know the smell.
old john
Dear Sang,John,
SPAM it is ... Thanks.
Good Trading
Post a Comment