Dear Readers, Preliminary attraction ( daily) points are
1343,1341 - 1372.3,1374 (FOR SPX)
N QQQQ 44.08 - 44.54,44.59,44.80 ,45.02
N SPX 1351 - 1361,1364,1369
N QID
10:23 ET, Q's at second Attraction Point
10:32 ET, should be scratch no momentum down
02:54 ET, JPY status 1,1,1,0,0 , ST na, LT sell, while Hourly (mid bit) indicates the weakness in YEN , if it was to change to 0(BUY YEN) we could have a good chance of JPY spike up today. We stated before that this scenario , leading to Stock market sharp decline ( not necessarily new lows) would probably put MDS into the BUY mode.
Let me remind INVESTORS. They should be less concerned with daily gyrations of the market and should have been already up to 30-40% invested in stocks ( some from higher levels and some from lower levels). Most of these investments should be in either total market(spx and/or wilshire) or high quality, good yield stocks. ( I am mostly in MUNI bonds with a nice Yield and NAV improvement potential)
11:55 ET, after a little fake move from our short entry point Q's printed exhaustion bar and went down, well we are not the one to chase the market, just interesting.
Dear Readers for all the same Reasons that Dear Greenie and myself have discussed, for as long as we are writing this blog, we advised to buy the core holdings of GOLD as a insurance for 1929 type of calamity. 10% is just about right amount of your total capital in the GOLD, to protect the against such outcomes.
SOPITALIST IN ACTION read on
It is time to tell some of these people , just take a hike. OK here it goes. I am giving sentences without being exact: ( you can go and see Paul McCulley interview with Bloomberg).
Bloomberg: Paul, Steven Roach says in Davos that FED should not be printing money, cause they will create another bubble...
Paul: I respect Steve's opinion but I am not sure what Assets are getting into bubble...
Let us stop here and see what Boris says.
Dear Paul, from PIMPO( sorry PIMCO)... How about the bubble in BONDS? How about the Bubble in CHINA stocks. How about the BUBBLE in REAL ESTATE in ISRAEL, BRAZIL,RUSSIA, SINGAPORE?
HOW ABOUT THE BUBBLE IN GOLD. Is Paul Blind or SOPITALIST, wanting our money to make him rich as his bond holdings advance but our $dollar/pensions lose purchase power? ,Yes how about the "earnings" of Microsoft , Berkshire coming from "depreciated Dollars" ( bubble in Buffet/Gates Earnings?) you should be the judge.
Dear Readers this is as simple as 2 year old child will understand. Any time money ( real or electronic) is printed, it is not doing the work, cause the handlers( banks, brokers, politicians, skim the dough). And do not forget the SOOPTALIST CASINO, where your frail nerves are tested everyday to fleece you out of what you already have ( by scaring you into actions you do not want and do not understand?) Kapish! it never works for real folks like you and me.
DO you think Paul or Bill(Gross, his PIMPO buddy) will come and discuss with me right or wrong of this issue. Do not hold the breath. SOPITALISTS are not that stupid
These people are so discredited...
Yes, and do you think BLOOMBERG is impartial to BILL's /Paul's views. How many times they interview them?
Almost everyday, until everybody is brainwashed to death
14:31 ET, we just hit the 4th on Q's could be the top
14:31 ET, 45.31 is fifth, we are going there it looks like, good place to risk a little and see what comes out. Ony 10c risk please.
15:08 ET, short from 45.29 sopt 45.32(mental)
15:09 ET, stop at 45.29 break even
15:13 ET, stop down to 45. 26
15:14 ET, taking 25 c profit on 1/3 of positions, rest stop 45.32
15:16 ET, stop down 45.17 1/3 and 45.26 1/3
15:24 ET, stop down 45.14 on 1/3 rd and 45.26 on 1/3 rd. 1/3rd we collected 20c.
15:34 ET, stop down 45.01 on 1/3rd, collect profits at44. 74 (55cents) on 1/3rd
15:47 ET, collect the 1/3 rd at 44.59 ( 70cents)
25 comments:
Boris,
thanx
old john
Dear JOhn
MOrning
GOod Trading
Bond Insurers
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/merrill-lynch-downgraded-exposure-bond/story.aspx?guid=%7B6BB38F77%2DA1D5%2D4A47%2D8FDD%2D078FE5AB735C%7D&siteid=yhoof
Dear Lag,
Thanks for the link
GOod Trading
Boris,,
thanx, sit here at wait for the bus
old john
Dear John,
We jost got the exahustion bar just below third Apoint...
It is late to react to it though.
Good Trading
Boris,
what do you think about interest rates today?
if I was Bernanke, I would raise, however Bernanke is irrational, so I believe we will see 0.50 or 0.75 cut. Why else they will do this non-scheduled meeting before? They did it to show - "see us, (we are stupid, but) we are serious".
Nikolay
Dear Nikolay,
If, and I agree, the FED is irrational ( Oi Wei) then how could I possiblt figure out what they are going to do(:-
Jokes apart, THe will lower, I think, but maybe there is some chance for them to do .25 and that would create the scenario we think will create the BUY signal in MDS ( afater stocks sell off). But we should be ready for the scenario you describe, which will prbably rally the markets somewhat...
Good Trading
Boris,
IMHO, it is too early for investors to go long total market. SPX is going to 500-600. I also expect all but 2 major homebuilders to go under. We have seen nothing yet.
G.
Dear Greenie,
Investors, can not time the markets.
Historically speaking in all but one case, after the market declined 20% it was higher after 3 years. With 60-70% cash in hands, investor should pray that he/she can see market go down another 20-30% ...
Now , I do prefer to be in YIELDING stocks that one can wait over even if we were to get the 29 type of market, but hey... What is the probability of that is going to happen?
Good Trading
"What is the probability of that is going to happen?"
Given the current context, very high. It does not have to be 1929. Even 2002 recession took SPX to 800 range, and your comparison with Japanese stock index (one you showed in May tat the top) suggest the decline from 2000 is still continuing. Expect lower low?
Dear Greenie,
I agree there is some probability of deflationary collapse like 209 and like Japan, but I only put it at 25%, cause I think FED will distroy Dollar first before we see the 1929 again. They are determined enough...
Which in my book means that we may decline on the purchasing level jast as bad as 1929, but in absolute terms it will look more like 1974 (45% max decline with inflation ) which makes the decline invisible and is over in 2-3 years max anyway...
Well, Yes, with all of that 1929 can happen...
Good Trading
Boris,
I watched McCauley. If I had bonds, I would want the fed to lower rates to japanese rates. Also remember Greenspan could only own bonds when he was the chairman, what did he make when he lowered rates to 1%?
old john
Dear John,
You are shaeper than I could ever imagine.
Yes, my dear JOhn,
Good Trading
John,
I guess I am not as smart as you but do you mean the FED (Greenspan) was actually able to legally hold bonds while FED chairman? So this would mean if he lowered rates to 1% then the bonds he held would rise in price? Thanks for you thoughts.
Jason
Dear Boris
Dollar vs Shekel, when this sharp decline will stop?
Israeli export and hi-tech are not immuned from such kind of revaluation
Thanks
Jason..
He was limited to U S government bonds. He stated that in an interview years ago.
old john
Dear Sharon,
As I indicated 1 Feb +- 2 trading day is an important turn date for Dollar. So, this could be it for SHEKEL and then there will be retest or another break by Passowver 2008 (21 April 2008)...
Pleas see the graph that outlines the future timing of SHEKEL versus Dollar ( here ) or safehaven.com ( "SHEKELS ON DOLLAR")
GOod Trading
Boris,,
bought qid at 48.10---sold at 48.80
thanx
old john
Dear John,
Congrats.
GOod Trading
Boris,
I should have been more patient.
old john
Dear JOhn,
Yes,
But remember rule #2
"Never worry about what you could have made"
ANother bus will come and more experienced you will board it(:-
GOod Trading
Boris,
I always remember #2- but I wish to improve.
old john
Dear John,
Rule number 2 does not preclude the learning. It contributes to it.
cause at a time you forget to be angry about what you missed, you start analysis of why you missed it.
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
Thankyou for the MDS Picture
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