(with a little caveat of MDS anticipated BUY generation today at close). What does that mean? It means that likelihood is now very high of the turn being at hand within a day. Remember no guarantees here, just a likelihood! Caution, the cross is occurring at the low point for both oscillators(pink and white), which smells like a quick turn back(1-2 days) into sell, which did not prevent August 2007 to develop strong rally, but we are not in Kansas anymore!
Dear Greenie, GBP status is 0,1,0,1,0, Until it gets the daily reversed into sell, one could give it a benefit of a doubt to some upside/sideways, but once Daily goes sell, forget it! this is lost currency, which shuld have never reached the highs it reached anyway, in short "Brutish Pound".
Please visit updated GROUPTATION link. Thanks Ivan, for hosting, updating and watching for correctness
Please visit updated GROUPTATION link. Thanks Ivan, for hosting, updating and watching for correctnessI will be out today till 13:00Pm ET or so. If you have any questions please ask ASAP before i leave in one hour or so. Comments, Please feel free to post as many comments as you like(::). Feel at home in absence
Sorry got to run, but here are the relevant SPX numbers ( not intraday)
SPX 1348 - 1407
Enjoy
10:28 ET, 1357.54 is the 4th Los, Fifth 1350.67. Considering how close the last one is to 1348, what do you think is likely to happen?
10:34 ET, 45.43 Q's 4th and 45.03 Q's 5h
10:37 ET, Likely turn time 10:35 Now! We do not want YEN to violate 105.50 either.
10:47,ET 46.06, YES the same as yesterday looms big. Once Broken, could remove barriers from Q's, Trail at 45.77 Mental
10:59 ET, Q Stops up 45.82
11:03 ET, Stops up 45.89
11:07 ET, Stops 45.96 mental, would be +7c for me, if stopped
11:29 ET, Out, I will try to buy if 46.24 broken,
11:33 ET, I Will try to buy 46.09 with 7c stop no more
11:40 ET, Out Total 0(ZERO)
11:50 ET, supported on 45.77 exactly(almost) as above, would not look good if it breaks this level again down.
11:56 ET, Q's Pivot around our two points looking for suckers(traders market)? (45.77 and 46.06)
12:13 ET, approach 45.43 4th
DEAR IVAN YOU ARE RIGHT, I GOT THE COLUMNS MIXED IN MY COPY Grouptation based copy is correct, I will republish
12:18 ET, if we were to get 5min BUY status here, I could buy Q's
12:20 ET, GOt it. Looking for ent
12:52 ET, So far missing the entry!
spx bottom so far within 1.5 points from our target 1347(wow), Q' lows 8c from our target
14:58 ET, hope 1346,1339(from 15 minute, more volatile action) holds or the next levels are 1318 and 1273 for today ( these come from daily)
Can not be guaranteed, but MDS is capable of generating a BUY signal on todays sharply lower close. If so I can not judge now, but early tomorrow morning, I will have the MDS current status. So, Why is tomorrow important.
1)Cause today is 17 Jan,
2)Cause tomorrow will be 6 th day from last MDS sell( profits usually come on 6th day),
3)Cause Tomorrow will be the 7th trading day from the last Bottom, look at the chart before, tests/breaks happen within 7-9 Trading days from previous bottom
Sorry got to run, but here are the relevant SPX numbers ( not intraday)
SPX 1348 - 1407
Enjoy
10:28 ET, 1357.54 is the 4th Los, Fifth 1350.67. Considering how close the last one is to 1348, what do you think is likely to happen?
10:34 ET, 45.43 Q's 4th and 45.03 Q's 5h
10:37 ET, Likely turn time 10:35 Now! We do not want YEN to violate 105.50 either.
10:47,ET 46.06, YES the same as yesterday looms big. Once Broken, could remove barriers from Q's, Trail at 45.77 Mental
10:59 ET, Q Stops up 45.82
11:03 ET, Stops up 45.89
11:07 ET, Stops 45.96 mental, would be +7c for me, if stopped
11:29 ET, Out, I will try to buy if 46.24 broken,
11:33 ET, I Will try to buy 46.09 with 7c stop no more
11:40 ET, Out Total 0(ZERO)
11:50 ET, supported on 45.77 exactly(almost) as above, would not look good if it breaks this level again down.
11:56 ET, Q's Pivot around our two points looking for suckers(traders market)? (45.77 and 46.06)
12:13 ET, approach 45.43 4th
DEAR IVAN YOU ARE RIGHT, I GOT THE COLUMNS MIXED IN MY COPY Grouptation based copy is correct, I will republish
12:18 ET, if we were to get 5min BUY status here, I could buy Q's
12:20 ET, GOt it. Looking for ent
12:52 ET, So far missing the entry!
spx bottom so far within 1.5 points from our target 1347(wow), Q' lows 8c from our target
14:58 ET, hope 1346,1339(from 15 minute, more volatile action) holds or the next levels are 1318 and 1273 for today ( these come from daily)
Can not be guaranteed, but MDS is capable of generating a BUY signal on todays sharply lower close. If so I can not judge now, but early tomorrow morning, I will have the MDS current status. So, Why is tomorrow important.
1)Cause today is 17 Jan,
2)Cause tomorrow will be 6 th day from last MDS sell( profits usually come on 6th day),
3)Cause Tomorrow will be the 7th trading day from the last Bottom, look at the chart before, tests/breaks happen within 7-9 Trading days from previous bottom
58 comments:
Hi Boris,
I am confused, i think in net version of oscillators file, average oscillators for Nasdaq look different!? Am I right or I did some mistake in net file?
Ivan
Boris,
would you play short or long? or stand aside.
old john
Dear Ivan, Maybe I got the mistake.
I will check upon returning.
Thanks for pointing out the difference.
I must have screwed up!
Good Trading
Dear John, if the low of yesterday holds I favor longs
Good Trading
Boris,
thanx
old john
Hi Boris and everyone,
I am brand new to this game, well new to playing this way! I just stumbled on this blog, I really do not know how and have been reading it for several weeks. I think its great. At least what I understand so far!
My question for anyone is how long should we now hold our put on Gold. Also, can anyone direct me to good educational sources as what you all are looking at? Thanks Jay
And thanks for hard work!
Can you believe the mortgage insurers this morning, wow. Can't raise capital.
jayw; hi. I'm fairly new also.
Educational material:
1) Someone recommended 'Dynamic Trading'; which I recently picked up and enjoyed.
2) I first started a few years ago with 'Trading Choas', which I liked.
See you around.
Jayw,
New also, relatively. Mark L. recommended Dynamic Trading. Excellent choice. I had to go through it a couple of times though.
old john
Boris and all,
The market is falling into the 1350's... I expect a bottom in here somewhere..
Regards,
Mark L.
Mark L,
thanx
old john
One thing is clear to me.....Bernanke is telling EVERYONE, that he is NOT a "Greenspan' clone and has his own agenda. I think Big Money has stepped aside this past month and most selling has been retail investor (evidenced by near extreme ISEE put/call ratios). For what its worth, we are on track for one of worst Januarys in History which compares to 1904....1904 happened to end the year up double digits.
My 2 1/2 cetns for the day.
Good trading
Boris and all,
My original prediction was 1354, we are there now (1354.55) .. .let's see if it holds..
Mark L.
Boris,
Got close to the bottom on the S&Ps- nice call. thanx but it was hard to pull the trigger
Mark L.
Nice call.
old john
ps- if it holds, taking the wife out to dinner:)
Dear John, Good Thinking,
Can you marry me?(:-
Good trading
Boris,
This is my second wife, first one could not handle my previous employment. Not going down the road the third time.
old john
Boris
AC-DC? LOL!!
Dear John,
I can take now like a MAN nor problem,
It happened often to before(:-
Good Trading
Thanks dear AC-DC, LAG
All,
Here's the retest of the lows ..often happens...the bottom of my range was 1351.93..1354 was kinda the midpoint..
Mark L.
Breaking down..very weak market...
Good morning all, my 2 cents is we need hard down to the 1340 area to make vix pop to the 30 area to give the market a tradable bottom. Waldo
Dear Waldo,Mark
Thanks
Good Trading
How many washouts does it take to produce a short-term bottom? I'm guessing more because everyone is expecting a bounce. Not gonna happen. This market could go much lower before it bounces.
We have now reached the bearish tgt of the nya on the pnf traditional chart. tgt is 8900. waldo
Boris,
I just sent you a trendline chart..we are approaching an exponential trendline well below the current Fibonacci price cluster..Don't know if that will stop this market or not..very weak..that trendline today is at 1339.38 and 1336.52 tomarrow also it's a 1.00 node as I mentioned yesterday..but who knows in this market?
Mark L.
The ISEE is printing ridiculous 20 minute numbers. There was a 23 earlier this morning! The intraday average is 40 (all-time low = 51). Unbelievable! Obviously a bear market reading. If we don't bottom today, how low can it go?
All,
Boris is probably away, so you can see the chart I sent him a few minutes ago over on my blog if you want to, I just posted it there as well..
Mark L.
Dear Blaine, MAx low on this move I see is 1300 +-20 on SPX
which is only 3-5% away from here
I do not say this is what we will get. Just a target
Good Trading
All,
The 1.618 extension of the move from 1406.10 up to 1523.57 on the 11th of December extends down to 1333.5...if that is plugged into the trendline chart for tomarrow, it lines up pretty well..it's a possibility..
The little bottom we have right now at 1346.02 still has no significant positive divergence so I think a lower bottom is still out there..
Mark L.
Mark L.
The vix just hit upper triangle line on Mark P's chart. Alot of traders are watching. Do or die time at retest of 1346. Daveo
All,
I have just put an updated trendline chart up..take a look..price action is now sitting right on the trendline..
Traditionally, those trendlines often get penetrated slightly so it may still slip a bit..
Mark L.
All,
I haven't seen anyone post about this but since I mostly watch the currencies I hadn't noticed that the Dow and S&P over the last few days have broken down from BIG H&S patterns on the daily charts. They are measuring to the 11,000 area and 1250 area. That is quite a bit lower from here. I am betting if we bounce it will be VERY short lived.
Jason
6100 ES futures contracts traded on uptick at 1350 area....sheesh, you would think that would mean something ?!
Jason,
I see what you're talking about...ominous but a great time to be a bear..
Mark L.
IT seems to me this selling pressure is likely the results of some VERY VERY heavy Hedge fund forced selling / losses / capitulation
Jason,
I saw that formation last month and had been anticipating the right shoulder since the October head broke down.
Of course, I didn't trust my instincts. Instead, I got long and longer over the past week and a half. I am the worst trader alive to be long during the worst start of a new year since 1907.
Everyone on this board, please use me as a contrarian indicator from now on. As soon as I sell my longs, the short-term bottom will be in place...
Signed,
Dumb Money Blaine
Blaine,
I will take that mantle of the Worst Trader, made some huge mistakes, now i just follow the attraction points. i bought today at s and p 1349. Only a very small position. Buy more tomorrow as I follow the points. If you get a chance look at the back posts. You have Boris who is outstanding , also look at the 2 Marks, - in fact most are more knowledgeable than me. I cant forget Waldo who does not post much more.
old john
Dear Blaine,
there is no bad trader and good trader.
There is a careful trader. That means that either one builds positions very slowly and/or terminates trade gone wrong instantly.
I hope You see how i trade. for over A year, I have only once had the trade go against me for 3 days(out of 100 or more trades?)
that is what I try to teach, but not always successfully , I guess.
Good Trading
"How many washouts does it take to produce a short-term bottom? I'm guessing more because everyone is expecting a bounce. Not gonna happen. This market could go much lower before it bounces."
Guys, I told Blaine the other day, but ones again I am telling you all that in a bear market it is NEVER a good idea to pick bottoms or even look for them. Instead, look to short rallies with good stops, and money will keep flowing to you. This is a new environment. So, forget your previous education from the bull market of 2003-2007.
Dear Boris,
I am still looking forward to your thoughts on Brutish pound, when you have time.
Best,
G.
TRIN--141
not that bad for all the selling
Dear Greenie,
Unfortunately what you say is going against the grain of short term trading, at least the way I do short trading, Remember?
I am learning to walk every day a new, I/you and everybody else know that we are not at bottom, by probing it. If you probe and do not get hurt that is great, cause, I probed and made 50 cents once and 75 cents next in past 5 days. I love this bear/bull(bool) ( I do not care).
The fact that Dear Blaine overxtended and did not quickly protect and/or teminate the bad trade is a bad trade management.
I do not know tops from bottoms.
I probe and make money. That is it.
Now there are other methods.
I do not use them. Mine is mine and works for me.
perhaps, cause I have a very little pain tollerance, I like other people not to suffer, as well.
That defines my trading method as well, method can be called no pain trading.
Those that can prejudge the market and want to define it Bull or Bear and experience pain are not my guests. I hate to see pain.
That is what drives my life and my trading.
It certainly works for me
Good Trading
Greenie,
See those BIG negative chart patterns I must agree with you. I just hope since the stocks are heading down now I am hoping the USD turns the corner to the up side.
Jason
Dear Greenie,
I think Jason gave you and me nice advice,
British pound is at this time, almost like a Dollar, dumped and unloved and it will have some strong reaction for a while, but needs to be sold at any sign of strenght. I will post the status tomorrow or tonight.
Good Trading Dear Greenie
Blaine,
Remember the 90's. I remember you calling the tech bubble top in Feb 2000. You can't be that bad of a trader. And we won't talk about the insane amount of money I made and lost in that era. I consider it my tuition for trading/investing school and will NEVER make those mistake again.
I think most of go through the times were we put on a trade and convince our selves we are right way after the point we had planned to stop out.
Jason
Dear Readers,
I will let you in on a little secret.
I looks like Dear Paul Tudor the famed trader, who is one of the few on FORBES whatever list...
Has exactly same trading nerves as I do.
Seems like he to has very low capacity to handle pain.
So, he is just like me. The blind with the stick that keeps probing all the time, making those incremental steps, so that he can not step outside of his/her stick area ( he already tested)
How is that for similarity.
Now , I do not know the gentlemen, but entire trading world knows his name. ( mine is only getting around)...
Again, this is my/his method.
There are others. They are not for me
Good Trading
Boris
I have been bouncing between a little short to a little long
Broke about even and now Im a little long again
THX everyone for the help as it makes a big difference
I am a grown man and I take responsibility for my poor trading decisions. Boris can lead me to the margarita, but he can't make me drink it. I have officially learned my lesson.
The last painful lesson I learned was not to get over extended in options.
Now, I will not get over extended into 200% ETF's.
And my last comment for the day is this:
"Suprise rate cut tomorrow"
Dear Lag,
I can see it in your actions protecting and probing and so on and I can you cut the losers and take the profits. You have arrived in my book, so do not surprise me please, with something I no more expect from you(: :)
Good Trading
I have a great Teacher(s)
THX
Lag
Boris,
Your thoughts on the USD standing fairly stable today while markets sell off? Do you think, over the short term, the USD will rally with the markets if they do find the bottom?
Jason
All,
Divergence is a great thing to watch for, as most trend changes announce themselves with large divergences..so far we havn't had much and that has kept me on the sidelines for most of the action today..it helps you keep out of trouble...
Regards,
Mark L.
Dear Jason,
Markets are declining, cause they finally understood that somebody, somewhere in the upper echelons of SOPITALISM understood that $Dollar can not be let go any further, besides too many artists and artistas were getting on the ANTI-DOLLAR Orgy. So , Dollar has nowhere but up to go and SOPITALISTS finally met the match , Mighty market that said. If Dollar is trash, EURO and JPY are trash squared, so whey do we not trash them too for a change?
Stock market on the other hand, realized that and said, SH... it is coming to an end ( Free "earnings" via depreciated Dollars) and took a dive. Stocks are diving cause Dollar is strong. There is no disconnect here at all...
You follow me?
Good Trading
Dear Mark and Mark, thanks for all your contributions.
Good Trading
Dear Hamakua, thanks for your contributions as well.
sorry I could not devote time to your comments, but I shell.
Good Trading
Boris,
Good morning
old john
Dear John,
Good Morning
Good Trading
Good morning Boris. Would you please start a new thread for today? This one is from yesterday and getting confusing. Thanks for the GBP update...I agree with you and came to the same conclusion in a different manner.
More on the new thread.
G.
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