N QQQQ 45.89,45.60,45.10 - 46.93
N SPX 1376,1372 ,1359- 1390,1393,1398
N QID
10:47 ET, This looks like a possible time +-5 minutes
10:52 ET, Risk few cents here. No more than few CENTS!
10:57 ET, Q's stop at 45.44, my stops at break even 45.51
DID we nail the Q's bottom within a minute or what!
11:08 ET, My stops go up to 45.59
11:09 ET, GO YEN GO(DOWN), expect some reaction at 107.31
11:20 ET, Q stops up 45.72, taking close to 50c profit on 1/2
11:32 ET, YEN struggles with 107.30 Q's struggle with 46.06
11:58 ET, PULL UP Q stop 45.99
13:23 ET, Breaking down here below 46(was resistance now support) will look really bad.45.99 has , so far , survived by one cent!
13:32 ET, Survived Second Test, third , if / when comes will break down
14:12 ET, 14:20PM is another turn time, high? Out with 1/2 about 90c gain
14:37 ET, Market has called my bluff. It is ON sky is the limit? ( do not take me seriously), but Q's are doing better than I thought and I had made less money than I could have, I sold early, Hallelujah
14:45 ET, Q's are at the first and JPY is at the fifth, come on, this is hard. JPY has turned 2 points around!
GO DOLLAR GO! GO DOLLAR GO! GO DOLLAR GO!
15:42 OET, OK, market is selling off. It had no business jumping up after I sold, that is cheating(::), but USDollar is holding the most of gains
35 comments:
Dea Boris, Good morning.
Mkts. moving like i anticipated.
In my last message on 4th Jan....i mentioned that....
"
S&P hit a low of 1429 earlier today .
Probably i guess by Jan 14th we could form the bottom and the rally should pick up steam into the March quarter.
1/04/2008 7:09 AM "
Also the wilder downswings are happening like i anticipated last time and mentioned on Nov 30th....
" I think S&P could stall very shortly around Dec 5th-7th time frame and probably 1503 and again head downwards towards the 1365 ....range.. infact probably slightly breach that to make a 52 wk Low and then the real uptrend could start into the 1st March 2008.
Also i mentioned last time that i am expecting wilder swings downside .. 400-500 points single day topwrads bottom formation... So probably to accomodate those... we could be making an upside buffer now..."
I think S&P is at 1375 now and we are getting closer to a Bottom formation for the next big rally.
Regards and have a G' trading day.
Cheers
Dear Pattern_Solver,
Always waiting for you good Input.
Thanks and Regards, God Bless you
Good Trading
Good Morning Boris/all.
New updates at my blog. My appologies for a late reply to those that had questions yesterday.
Mark P
Good morning Boris. Great call on the currencies !!! Do you think Brutish pound will follow Euro and go down, or follow USD and go up?
Thx,
G.
Dear Mark/Readers,
You can go straight to MarkP, site from the link on this site.
Enjoy.
Thanks Mark
Dear Greenie, I must think about BP a bit, it is so oversold. DId not look at it lately.
Good Trading
Get back to you soon
EUR putting in a nasty stick on the daily charts. This could be the making of a double top in EUR and the beginning of the USD strength Boris is predicting.
Jason
Dear Jason,
Go Dollar GO!
Good Trading
Hello Dear Boris....
Great call on gold the other day... I missed it unfortunately.....
Should we be continuing the strategy, i.e., buying deep out-of-the-money puts?
It appears that now is a much better time to sell JPY calls or buy puts. You still like this strategy...aggressively?
Greenie,
I hope you don't mind me commenting on your question.
I think the GBP will get a little relief rally due to the oversold condition but I doubt it will ever break back through 2.00.
Jason
Dear Xerxes,
We must act when opportunities come.
Unfortunately market does not give us too many windows, especially in gold.
In YEN, Gradual would/should do it as explained earlier.
I try, but I can not even promise to myself that I will catch bottom.
Good Trading
Dear Jason,
Good Thinking!
gOOD tRADING
"Even a dead cat bounces"
Dear Hopper,
Philosophical today?
Good To hear from you
Good Trading
Beautiful work Boris....was that a timing signal ? or was it based on the QQQQ/NDX hitting their lower unfilled gap suppoert area ?
Thanks for sharing.
Dear Hamakua,
I could not see the gap, even if it was in front of me(::)
No, I was not watching the GAp, but I was watching my own Attraction points and yes one of the strictly proprietary timing model.
Good Trading
Hello Dear Boris...
Thank you for your response....
You told me that the first 3 rules of trading was never to lose money..
So it seems to me that buying at or near the bottom is of paramount importance if one is to comply with your first 3 rules :-)
Dear Xerxes,
Amen!
Except, who am I to know where the bottom is. I have a hard time "telling" where the bottom is.
But, I have a sense of "bottom in time" even if I may not have exact bottom.
This is important...
My way of finding bottom is. Just do it when you think you have a bootom and if you do not have the market will take you out with "small loss stop" and Mr market will tell that "this is not bottom".
So, we try again.
It is almost like learning to walk, all the time anew.
What you/I do not want is that, we fall in a way that we can not learn to walk again.
That is why you see me go BALLISTIC when I see/hear one of our members overextends him/herself.
I know if they get "injured" badly they will not try to walk again!
But to blame me for knowing where the bottoms are. Please do not(: :)
Good Trading
Hi,
Yesterday I wrote about the YEN, I hope you don’t mind that I continue.
I mentioned YEN to 106 yesterday.
The YEN bounced directly off the 100% price range of the High/Low ( 6/22 to 8/17/07), projected from the recent high on 10/19/07; in pre-market trading today.
If I’m guessing, I think we might see a near-term bounce. But I do think in the next few weeks, after a correction, we might completed the 3rd impulse wave bearish (final Wave 5) and finish down around 103 (between 105 and 100)?
(Because the above noted 100% price range seems low to place a Wave 3 and Wave 5 in it?) Maybe I make little sense talking about this wave stuff, but I’ve only recently ‘found’ it; and I find it interesting.
Correction Wave 4? (started today)
Bullish:
Signal 1 (wise man #1) : Weekly, Daily, 100m , 60m, 30m, 10m , 5m chart
Signal 2 (wise man #2) : 100m , 60m, 30m, 10m , 5m chart
Signal 3 (wise man #3) : 100m , 60m, 30m, 10m , 5m chart
All this morning.
Weekly analysis.
Projected 112 (.50 retrace of 10/12/07 high) and 113.50 (.618 retrace of 10/12/07 high)
If the high occurred on the week of 3/21/08; today’s low would be .618 of the time between the high on 10/12/07 and 3/21/08(area).
(Daily)
low 10/22/07 144 calendar days = 3/14/08
low 09/07/07 144 trading days = 3/10/08
Of the dates I calculated using the 144/72 method; I only have 4 March dates, which seems low. (3/7/08 (CalendarDay), 3/10/08 (TD), 3/14/08(CD), 3/24/08(CD)) Only the 144 calendar/trading days have March 2008 dates, not 72 method. ?
pattern_solver mentioned his calculation to be around the march time period. Thanks for input.
Mark, good call on the AAPL top around 202. Were you dead-on, or what? Thanks.
Ivan, Boris, thanks for your updating the excel file. Props.
Good day
Dear Brandon,
Thanks a lot for your excellent analysis.
Yes, You did say YEN 106 was your target and it did come within 10c from actual bottom, CONGRATS!
Dear Voltire does not have to worry about what happens when I get called up by the creator. You and Him can do one hell of a job to continue and serve our readers. Yes, Dear Patter_Solver can do it too...
Thanks all.
Thanks for thanking Ivan, most unassuming guy that just does what he thinks is right. Can hardly ask more!
Good Trading
Boris,
Your walk analogy is excellent. Thx, G.
Dear Brandon,
I did not understand anything from what you said.But this is not first time.
I told you I do not remember williams trading method any more.
GOod Trading
Dear G,
I thank you. All I can say is what I do or feel
I am darn good at picking spots, but I never know if I am dealing with bottom or bottomchic or crater!
I just feel as I go and as long as my stick works, I may survive(: :)
GOod Trading
All,
I just read a special update from Marty Chenard analyzing the low VIX relative to the SPX.
Basically since December, the strong stocks have been strengthening while the weak stocks have been weakening. They should normally both move in the same direction, but diverged. Both are forming triangles that are about to hit their apexes and breakout. If strong stocks break higher, weak stocks will break higher and create a big rally.
But, if strong stocks break lower, weak stocks will break lower, too, and the market will meltdown.
These are the only two outcomes from his analysis. There will be no sideways trading from here.
Dear Blaine,
Thanks for an update.
hang in there Dear Friend.
Good Trading
Boris,
Should I buy QQQQ puts to hedge any further downside? I was looking at February strike $45 for about $100 per contract.
Wait until the QQQQ breaks below $46?
Thanks
Dear Blaine,
Hard to advice, on this, but if there is a time, it is good time now, we are higher again.
If you want to protect partially, You make the decision. Just chose the good spot and size
Good Trading,GOOD LUCK
Financials are leading the way:
XLF + 3.5%
BKX + 4.3%
Most likely short covering? Dead cat bounce?
Boris,
You are starting to sound like a man holding a lot of USD long. :o)
I am glad I have been easing in over the last 1-2 days.
Do you think this is the bottom for your 18 month rally in USD?
Jason
Dear Jason,
I am American Citizen and naturally like $US to be up.
My pensions are in Dollars. Things I do not control. Social Security is in $Dollars.
YES, I am a Dollar man!
And I hope it will do what i said, for 2 years now, it will do.
No Guarantees though And i did sell Dollars when I thought they were going down.
Good Trading
Boris,
One of these numbers is way wrong, what is your guess?
1) 30-yr Treasury 4.26%
2) Fed Funds 4.25%
Dear Blaine,
none of the numbers are wrong. They are on the move though.
The Fed Funds has more room to come down. and the Bonds may actually go down(up interest rates) slightly, causing the steeper curve, vital for banks to survive.
Good trading
Hi Boris,
Any comments on buying IQW
down 54% today.
Dear Hopper,
I am having difficulty generating opinion on this stock.
I know this ... this is a dead stock or it will be worth a lot of money one day...
I just do not know which one. I can not even take a pulse from it...
Tanks and Regards,
Good trading
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