N QQQQ 50.08 - 50.74
N SPX 1447.70- 1454.50
N QID 38.82 - 39.75
10:19 ET, Looks like everybody is careful here and looking for Tomorrow's Employment numbers. I continue to add little by little to my positions, but stick to the idea that MDS BUY signal could take few days to prove itself.
11:35 ET, BKX hits the low 36.12 only 27c away from our long time target of 85.85. It also has 62 FIB replacement at 83.92... Amazing, are we going to hit both of these numbers tomorrow, bad news on PAYROLL ?
36 comments:
Boris,
OK
old john
Dear John,
welcome,
I know you are doing something good for your lady there.
Good Luck.
Good Trding
Boris,
I am trying. Buy some qqqq"s at the best price i can. Just small amounts.
old john
Dear John,
Good Luck, it will come to you.
Just stay patient.
Good Trading
Hi Boris,
is gold toping here?
Thanks
Dear Ivan,
What do you think?
It came in high at the opening up almost 10 bucks and now it is down. This is not a great behavoir for a roaring bull maarket. In any case you know our outstanding forecast is , at least a local top around 3 Jan +- 2 trading days. Today is jan 3 is not it(; :)
Good Trading Dear Ivan
Dear Ivan,Readers
It is also our reco that if you are long in GOLD upon our advice from couple weeks ago ( gold under 800) then just keep those trailing stops working and go to sleep soundly tonight.
GOod Trading
Dear Boris, I think the same.
Thanks and Good Trading
Hi Boris,
please one long-term question:
Related to your scenario of strong USD in next 18 months, will USD appreciate more against EUR or swiss CHF? In other words, will EUR/CHF go up or down?
Thanks
Yes,,,I understood Recomendation of Gold trailing stops Boris,,,but not all of my contracts were below 800 cost. I have been adding positions the last few weeks.
In fact I picked up a few yesterday early AM. That's why I took some off table(sold 1/3) yesterday afternoon,,,as trailing stop of 15 would have been a very small gain on those,,, so I decided to just lighten up and take profit while there on those contracts...Slept better last night.
My gut tells me Gold topping,,,and reading comments here cautions me also.
Thanks again,,,,enjoy your blog very much!
Dear Tim
No problem, That is just fine.
In fact, in our earlier reco's we told LAG to take profits just like that and he indicated he took 40% of his gains off the table. That is nice considering starting point below 800.
Good trading
Dear Ivan,
My best understanding of the way EURO and CHF stand...
CHF should best the EURO over next 18 months.
Good Trading Dear Ivan.
Hi Boris,
Several months ago, once when you were analyzing individual stocks, you had mentioned support level for SBUX was 18.71, it is about there now and maybe still falling..?
Any comments, I heard it had a bad review a couple of weeks ago, due to tough competition.
A high resistance was at 39… still? Or is 15.50 more the direction?
Thanks
Dear Hopper, Right now I get these numbers as support points. And they could change a bit depending how the first couple months progress, but here they are:
15, 16.25 , 17.91
Other consumer discretionary companies, BBBY,JCP,HDG,BC,SBUX,HD are all in steep downturn right now and worth watching for entire stock market turnaround
Good Trading
grasshopper, are you familiar to stockcharts, if you are go to stockcharts and look for M. FLAVIN, GO TO 3RD PAGE ON HIS SITE AND HE HAS A WEEKLY CHART ON SBUX, HE IS SHOWING A HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN DOWN TO 12.60.
Boris,
My wife thanks you for the attraction points.
As for the payroll numbers, they will be whatever someone wants them to be.
old john
Dear John,
Say thank you to your wife.
Now, the PAYROLL numbers are the most unreliable and often totally revised yet, everybody is so fixated on to them...
That is because media and big traders like this way.
They can mezmorize the uninitiated and shake them out on that day , to take the market the other way...
Hallelujah
Good Trading
I agree with you John,,,,all the numbers are lies. I never thought I'd say that about the U.S.,,,,but it's true and sad.
Sold all GLD and xfered PMPIX to UCPIX
Now I have the same UCPIX as QLD so Im market neutral
Dear Lag,
Nice GOLD trade.
NAZDAROVIE!
Good Trading
Noticed my QLD triggered a sell at 95.37 so I am a little short now with UCPIX--1/5
sorry 96.15
Boris,
BKX touch 86.06, only .21 away, and then bounced ;) We may still get there.
If this market doesn't rally soon, then a big crash is closer than we think.
Good trading
Dear Baline,
Good notice on BKx
The most dangerous day on the MDS buy signals is what?
The second day( will be tomorrow)
U find, by looking at the chart, that usually the biggest down day after this buy signal comes on the second day...
Good trading
Thanks, Boris.
Then it makes perfect sense for "them" to take the market down tomorrow and make the public capitulate. I will be buying the dip tomorrow (low limits), if that is the right bus...
Dear Blaine,
As a contrarian i can not agree with you more...
1) you will be buying low
2) you will be buying when uninitiated are selling
3) You will be buying on a second low day od MDS
Usually this a very safe todo
Good Trading
Boris and all,
My trendline charts are not showing us near any exponential trendlines at the moment, but three different sets of pivots are showing a cluster of Time nodes in the near term..Today was a 1.500 node by one pivot, and tomarrow is a 1.000 node by another and Monday is a 1.000 by yet another..so we should bottom very soon...
Regards,
Mark L.
5 days of trin is 9.15--very low--things should start moving up now.
I want to buy for an up move here. Lets hope we open down in the mornin
Boris ,
I was looking at the FXY and wondering when it will turn?
thanx
old john
The Nikkei 225 was closed for a few days, and it is sure making up for lost time with a 4% drop right now, sitting 20 points above its 52-wk low. This looks like a ST buy.
Hi Boris,
Is Euro good for short here? What do you think about risk/reward?
Best,
G.
Dear Greenie,JOhn
EURO looks like a reasonable short if your time horizon is more than few weeks.
I am building shorts in currencies, especially YEN.
I think that max next week the Dollar would have turned.
max risk EURO 150
jpy 107
Good Trading
Dear Lag,Blaine,MarkL
Thanks for good comments.
Good Trading
Boris,
I read a Safehaven article by Ashraf Laidi that agrees with your Yen call, and I quote:
"We anticipate a broad sell-off in the Japanese yen accompanied by a run-up in the broad equity indices in the aftermath of Friday's payroll report as risk appetite trades are seen resurging across the board."
1) A well received non-farm payrolls report will ease concerns of a US recession/contraction and be favorable for US stocks at the expense of the yen OR;
2) A dismal report such as below 10K and/or an unemployment rate of at least 4.8%, may be contained by either an inter-meeting rate cut, or another intervention by President Bush announcing an overreaching economic stimulus package aimed at stabilizing jittery markets. We have already seen an inter-meeting Fed cut in the first week of 2001, when the central bank intervened following a dismal manufacturing ISM.
We also have already seen well-timed interventions from the Bush administration aimed at stabilizing market psychology, such as the recent sub-prime interest rate-freezing plan on December 6th, which boosted the S&P500 by 1.2% to 4-week high.
In conjunction with our forecast for a yen sell-off, we expect a broad rally in US equities, with the S&P500 testing the 1,470 level and the Dow at 13,250.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9145.htm
The problem with testing of 1470 is that too many people are expecting it lately.
Dear Blaine,Greenie.
Good Observations on both counts. We shell take it one day at a time with MDS and YBR and SUMMATION guiding us
Good Trading
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