Dear Readers,Stock Markets are still on wire . All it takes one push. Does not preclude up move, especially, if the $ goes down, expected into 23/5. Are Gold/Silver showing loss of general liquidity for all assets? We think so. Do we have another Energy BS rally? we think so. But market forces,powers that want to, could push ENERGY much farther than anybody expects... So, no shorts for now. Interest Rates have perked up. Will not last in time either, but can cause damage in a 2-3 week period. US $Dollar has fired an opening salvo higher, expect correction here. So, what do we advice? Already being long Us $ or doing it on next strength, short/out metals, keep money in short term treasuries funds and praying markets go our way. Good Trading
11 comments:
Hi Boris,
do you know what is happening with YEN (JPY), suddenly up?
Thanks
Dear Curaki, I see a hiccup in YEN. I certainly hope that a long overdue rally will materialize next 3-4 trading days. $ is temporarily overbought. We did also hit the upper channel of the bankd in which YEN traded after 5 March. We alos have band of the resistance around the older low of 121.50 or so.
Good Trading
Dear Curaki, I meant we have the upper channel of BAND traded sinse 5 March. Good Trading
Dear Curaki, this may have something to do with CHINA increading the RANMINBI trading bands...
Good Trading
Thanks Boris.
What do you think about the following idea related to JPY (I read it on many places): when the stock markets start to go down, carry-trades will slow, and JPY will strenghten (CHF too)? Do you agree with this? Thanks as always
Yes Dear Curaki, you can make that a chicken and egg. When the YEN goes up stocks will go down, cause the carry-trade is dangerous and when the stocks go down they depress the risk appettite, thus reduce the demand for YEN. How about the circularity here...
Good Trading
Dear Readers,Curaki, the comments below are what I call the PFL ( positive feedback loop ). That means the assets in maniacal stages go up, cause they go up. Not cause the fundamentals call for it. So, allthe fundamentalists and economists, please go some place with your formulas, cause you make me sick with your formulas. I had had enough of it in my life and do not need some stupid economists to tell me what the world should do. World will do what is dicated by the mass phsycosis and that has nothing to do with formulas, but the good old experiense that allows us to catch those rare moments in time when the bubble is just about to burts.
Good Trading and remember PFL that is all you need to know in markets.
Good Trading
In counterpoint to my posting yesterday, today the S&P 500 opens at more than 6 standard deviations above its 50 day simple moving average.
In addition, the S&P has a tendency to open at the high on options expiration day and close below the open by a decent amount.
For what it's worth
John
Dear John, Thanks for your comments. Please keep doing so. We may disagree sometimes, but that is educational process for all of us. Me included. Please keep your opinions coming. Thanks for this insight.
Good Trading
Dear Readers, I do not want to be misunderstood. Circular processes I described above, so far worked not the way I described. Instead of the risk appetite diminishing when the YEN goes up, so far, these downdrafts in Stocks have been treated as buying opportunities, thinking the YEN will not stay high, so why fear. Only when the scare is followed by another scare and another scare, and the buyind the dips produces losses the other virtues cycle will take over, namely " sell the rallies" cycle. We are not there yet. That is why we are looking for, at least, an opening Salovo and hopefully , the repetition of the same from time to time. This will get us where the bear will rule. Good Trading
Dear David Wozney. Thanks and I know what you mean. USA also is sovereign country with lawful and protected borders. Yes, things are supposed to be different... but are they?
Thnaks for your contribution Dear Wozney.
Post a Comment