Dear Readers, we could come unhinged here ( probability at least 30%) just like we did on late FEB. Be extremely careful of any longs here. Good Trading
I am expecting a move down in NDX to fill up gaps from mid april, and then another rally with a lower high (NDX cash 1870). Then there will be unrelenting plunge day after day after day.
I do not expect any fast move down like Feb. It will be slow and steady, day after day, until bulls realize they are at 2006 summer low. :)
Dear Greenie, Thanks for your comments. Thoughtfull indeed. I am not sure what your expectations are based on, but certainly the scenario has as much chance as the sudden collapse, in my mind. Apprecite the contribution dear Greenie.
1. a intraday fractal pattern from Apri 25 - May 2nd.
2. When I look at NDX weekly MACD, blue line is above red. Most often, it falls below and does a back-kiss.
3. Sentimentwise, too fast a move raises bearishness fast, because many people are now expecting a fast collapse like Feb. If the market has to move down deep (like I expect), it needs to keep the bulls and bears convinced that we are in a consolidation, and make them take profit fast.
Good thoughts green, I have been trying to find a scenario that brings the market down a long long way while maintaining positive sentiment. Lots of people need to hang a long time. If we plunge they just pile in stronger than ever.
I think we need a slow grind. Wear them down one at a time.
Dear Greenie, Garth, I am all for it whatever form, it might take. The SPX2000-NIKKEY1990 Fractal is calling for relatively slow grind withe bursts of down move. Good Trading
5 comments:
Dear Boris,
I am expecting a move down in NDX to fill up gaps from mid april, and then another rally with a lower high (NDX cash 1870). Then there will be unrelenting plunge day after day after day.
I do not expect any fast move down like Feb. It will be slow and steady, day after day, until bulls realize they are at 2006 summer low. :)
Dear Greenie, Thanks for your comments. Thoughtfull indeed. I am not sure what your expectations are based on, but certainly the scenario has as much chance as the sudden collapse, in my mind. Apprecite the contribution dear Greenie.
Boris,
It is based on
1. a intraday fractal pattern from Apri 25 - May 2nd.
2. When I look at NDX weekly MACD, blue line is above red. Most often, it falls below and does a back-kiss.
3. Sentimentwise, too fast a move raises bearishness fast, because many people are now expecting a fast collapse like Feb. If the market has to move down deep (like I expect), it needs to keep the bulls and bears convinced that we are in a consolidation, and make them take profit fast.
Best,
Greenie
Good thoughts green, I have been trying to find a scenario that brings the market down a long long way while maintaining positive sentiment. Lots of people need to hang a long time. If we plunge they just pile in stronger than ever.
I think we need a slow grind. Wear them down one at a time.
Dear Greenie, Garth, I am all for it whatever form, it might take. The SPX2000-NIKKEY1990 Fractal is calling for relatively slow grind withe bursts of down move. Good Trading
Post a Comment