Dear Readers, You have all heard from BLOOMBERG L.P. Interview with Warren Buffet that he wants to find an elephant to put the elephant size 40-60 Billion in for safe keeping. Now I cannot and will not accuse Mr. Buffet of running the stocks, like the other private capital guys could be doing, but just think about it. It is not in the market!!! What is that? the idea that the biggest buyer is looking. This idea is now in the market. Is there a better bell ringer at the top?
We report You decide, fair and balanced... Yes, and did you see that program on some cable channel that is called "bulls and bulls"? Yeah, fair and balanced...
Good Trading
19 comments:
There has never been a major top in equities in May, and that trend will continue in '07. If you are looking for a major top this fall then you are on far firmer ground. IMHO, the best one can hope for is a brief hiccup in the averages which will alow bears to get long before the next leg up which has a decent chance of becoming the mother of all blowoffs-imagine the senior averages up 10% to 20% which will, of course, precede the mother or all collapses and the end of the The FInal Party TM.
Dear Ross, I can only go by what the market says. There is almost a perfect correlation between the Jpanese and US market on a $ adjusted bases. If May is historically unpallatable then it could well be that we will not make the curtailed top here to leave the March as the top. Now, I am not stuck on there not being another top, in fact I see another top after August, therefore the prediction of initial bottom in August. But to be historically correct, perhaps June can also be considered on deflated SPX top. 1946 has produced nice top in June, I believe. Interesting subject though. Are you sure your report is of unadjusted inices or inflation/dollar adjasted indices. Just curious Dear Ross.
Dear Ross, Readers, I meant below that if we do not make a "delated" SPX top this month then The top in March will stay in as the top on the deflated chart.
Dear Ross, In fact, without any adjastments the Major top in 1946 has occured in MAY/JUNE, as far as, I can tell the MAY and JUNE high readings were the same in that year. I have no problem of this top being fractal equivalent of 1946 either, even though I perfer the Fractal equivalence with Japanes Nikke from 1990. Good To hear From you Dear Ross
Dear Ross,Readers Found another one good size top in 1956 May lasted all the way into 1958.
Good Trading
Look it up you will see that there is no major top in May in either real or nominal terms. As for going by what the market says, please spare me that conceit. If everyone who thought they had correctly translated the market's messages were correct, far more people would be rich than actually are. Unfortunately, there is something called Heisenberg's Principle, oneI imagine you are familiar with, that when applied to the stock market says that we participants can never have but so clear a picture of the market.
Dear Ross, Yes about Heisenberg and Yes I am not stuck on anything so hard that I swear by it. But 1946 and 1956 had the May tops. I looked it up. I swear... (::) now it is your turn. I have the chart in front of me.
Good To Exchange with you Ideas my friend. Good Trading
"With that said, we will revisit China's Shanghai Composite which is now getting very close to a 12 year Major
Resistance Point ... a level, that on the current parabolic trajectory will be reached sometime this month."
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Dear Danno, I have seen this staff before. Interesting. There seems to be noises coming out of many capitals of the world that indidcate that they are at least a bit scared by the bubble's and troubles from their young and stupid ( inexperienced in stocks) population. It will be interesteing... as chinese curse goes...
Good Trading Danno
Hi Boris,
re Heisengerber, is this why you ar emore concerned with momentum (pressure)than price level?
1946 wasn't a major top, nor was 1956. The Major tops of of the 20th Century can be found at, among other places, the following site:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mchugh021007.html
The tops at the site are in keeping with the kind of top you are attempting to forecast, namely a generational or multi-generational secular change in trend.
I would add that some of the tops at the site are clearly not major tops, though clearly from a trading perspective there was plenty of money to be made.
The secular tops of generational importance were made in '29 and in the late sixties. Right now, 2000 appears, in real terms, to be a top of great significance, though at this stage the S&P will not have to travel far to nullify that state of affairs. Ditto the Dow if it makes it to 14,000 (a mere 6% move from present levels) this year.
We will see in the fullness of time.
Dear Garth, Yes, price levels are important like the sign posts on the road, they can become support or resistance depending how they are approached and/or penetrated. They alone cannot do the job for trading. They are known to others as well and used for gunning stops purposes. This site has demonstrated that we have flexibility of mind and the tools to wait for good entry points. Without that discipline money can not be made in the markets. In fact, even a market stupid can make money with enough discipline and risk/position mamangment proves. So, we try to instill these into people. Some do not last. They leave as soon as no action appears in certain period. Well, they may or may not come back. Those that will come back will prove to be winners, cause they have realized the market is not the Baseball, Inaction is further supperior to a bad action.
GOod Trading Dear Garch.
Dear Garth, sorry for butchering your name. GOod Trading.
Dear Ross, the kind of "Major Tops" you imply here are only two last century 1929 and 1966 ( inflation adjasted bases, even though 1973 was higher). Well, let's search no more. That kind of major top was 2000 March. That is it. The tops from here to 2016 will not be thouse kind of a Major Tops. They will just be cyclical tops within the secular TOP already in place. Good Trading Dear Ross.
Hi Boris
Thanks again for the site. Since I am fairly new I want to make sure that I am clear on your position. You are looking for a major top around May 10 for stocks. Is that accurate? And an up move in gold starting around June.
Thanks for your time and energy here.
Howard
Dear H, Your understanading is correct. I just want you to take the following caviat to these predictions. With the governmnent desire to prevent the collapse in the markets, it is possible that every effort will be made to keep the markets afloat. So, market may look like moving up/sideways, but that would only happen with $ going to hell. If $ stabilizes and rises, which is what I think is going to happen into September, the market will/should have very hard time rising. Nevertheless from the trading, making money point of view, we are/shoudbe very flexible in how we play these markets and for that stay tuned to us and get updated.
Good Trading.
Boris, if Warren Buffet really has that much chunky change burning a hole in his pocket and no company to buy, would we not see him placing his bets in currencies and gold?
Thanks
Francis
Dear Fran, I believe he has a lot of change, as you say. From what I know he is not looking in USA exclusively either. So, perhaps he knows what we have known for a while, that $ is going to hell. Buying EURO company would be a bet on EURO as well, would not it? As far as GOLD, I know he bet on SILVER couple times, IS GOLD MARKET TOO BIG FOR HIM? I am not sure. Can not rule out though... Maybe he will read this blog and decide it is a good IDea. Thanks Dear Fran.
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