Dear Readers, today's limits.
N QQQQ 46.51 - 46.81
N GLD 66.57 - 66.95
N USO 47.74 - 49.02
N ECA 56.01 - 57.01
N SPX 1497.95 - 1518.59
N TSX 13839.40 - 13935.58
First it was Chinese Finance Official.
Then BOFA President
Even Before CITI VICE Rhodes?
NOW GOLDMAN, Are these guys finally waking up and calling the bubble what it is... $u$$le?Good Trading
Still Have not broken Yesterday's low for TSX, if that happens, we have, at least, the possibility for an accelerating downturn.
Now TSX took out yesterday law accelartion on the downside is now more likely than before.
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris,
Looking for a STL at:
S&P 1491.89 (-20.11)
NAZ 2537.64 (-38.7)
DOW LOW 13223.5; now Bouncing off 13225; if breached, NEXT SUPPORT: 13167.56 (-195.31
5/10/2007 10:28 AM
We approach a support for Stocks and possible turnaround point right now 1:42 EDT, This means either taking partial profits if you have any or do not short here.
Jim Taylor, JD said...
NAZ approaching Resistance at 2550.25
DOW UP WAVE ENDS at 12:00 PDT
5/10/2007 11:34 AM
23 comments:
Hi Boris just wanted to congrat you on your comments, you spoke about that on the 10th there is going to be down moves on the U.S Indices. love your postings, Bravo. Good trading.
Thanks Sam. I am humbled by all of this and do not like to get it in my head that I am just a simple average person, with a bigger brain and desire to look ahead. But let us remember, I call for REAL top at/around this time. While we can have higher Markets , it will be all $moke and Mirror$. Good Trading
Dear Sam, I meant "I like to get"... (::), of course, Good Trading
Boris, in your opinion will any sector (besides cash position or short) be safe/profitable following this REAL top. Good call on the TSX.
Hi Boris,
Looking for a STL at:
S&P 1491.89 (-20.11)
NAZ 2537.64 (-38.7)
DOW LOW 13223.5; now Bouncing off 13225; if breached, NEXT SUPPORT: 13167.56 (-195.31
JIM
Dear Garth, usually the defensive sectors should do the best in these situations. GOLD is one of them, but it needs(is...) take initial hit as $ gets stronger and later travel together with the $ up. Some more defense can, usually, be obtained in dividend paying stocks, but they have been so overhyped... DRUGS, CONSUMER basics industries, short term Bonds and etc. Unfortunately, the nature never, exactly, repeates, so you must chose well and monitor closely. We are here to answer your questions anytime, as well. Good Trading
Dear Garth, by CONSUME basics is the same as COUNSUMER STAPLES.
Good Trading
Boris
FYI...possible double top on broker dealers $XBD. Should lead mkt as they have in the past.
NAZ approaching Resistance at 2550.25
DOW UP WAVE ENDS at 12:00 PDT
JIM
Dear Harleydog, Good observation indeed. I would add to that the lethargic $BKX index.
Good Trading
Dear JD, being regular, I kind of forget to respond to your info ( which is self decriptive , I must say). Just so that nobody forgets, I am very thankful for your partcipation. Good Trading Dear Jim.
Boris, thanks.
My wife works in the pharma industry and there is some real exciting tech coming, but several years away, not sure the stocks will hold up in the meantime.
regards,
Boris, do you have a time frame for $gold to bollotm?
Hello Boris.
Once this decline ends, I like the prospect of GLD heading back up to the 67.50 area. Is this a fair assessment?
Thanks
Danno
Dear Danno/Garth, As you (may) know, I lef the GOLD/SILVER on their own at lleast until sometime in JUNE. When I sense things are changing, You will sense it too. For now I am not able to be more exact. Dear Danno, you mean 675 in couple days back up... Possible, very possible. But you can sense, that I cannot/will not committ to the times and/or prices except at times/prices where I feel comfortable. Why lie to you/myself that I know mor than I do? (::). The simple trueth is I do not at all times know what will happen... HA... that is suprising... Just kidding Dear Dann/Garth.
If I misunderstood your question. Shoot again. Dear Garth are you able to talk about the "tech" your wife's company attepts to bring it to us?
Thanks and Good Trading
Hello Boris, I am an ex-physicist and a silent observer of your blog. I enjoy your daily posts. I came here through your safehaven post in Feb. At that time, I was trying to find out, who could confidently and accurately determine the timing of the top, and you were among them.
Regarding the safe sector to be in (unless you want cash/short), it is long term treasury bond IMHO. Seasonally, bonds do well in summer. Also, with the coming deflationary recession, treasury bonds are going to fly. Just MHO. No corporate bonds, even those which appear 'safe'.
Dear Greenie, Thanks for coming out in the open, We can not have more intelligent conversation. Seems like you are ready for us as well. Now, I like the bonds, but would not go out to "long". Here is why dear Greenie. As the economy falters or is not allowed to falter, more money printing will be exercised and Longer term interest rates, may not fall as much as the short ones. I do not expect a long term deflation, but I do expect a form of stagflation which, most likely, will not so kind to Long Term Bonds. But, I like the short, to intermediate bonds( no longer than 3-5 years).Good To hear from you Dear Greenie and Good Trading to you.
With yields where they are how can bonds "fly". Even if yields go to zero the cap gain is minimal.
All the phase I, II and III trials for the various pharmas are public. Sorry cannot be more specific.
Dear Garth, appreiciate your predicamnt and thanks about the comments on bonds.
Good Trading.
Thank you Boris. I am of course not as experienced as you, but here is my humble opinion. There is no money printing - it is all credit. When credit disappears, deflation comes. Deflation is already here (housing), and will spread fast to all asset classes.
Also, over the last five years, every asset class got bid up - US stocks, european stocks, emerging market stocks, houses, junk bonds, gold, silver, currencies, small caps, value stocks, commodities, oil, everything - except (i) treasury bonds, (ii) US dollar.
So, naturally from sentiment point of view, those two classes have best chance to do well.
Dear Greenie. I agree, it is all credit and that is what I imply in "printing money". No disagreement there. That is OK. No disagreement that All assets went up in sync. All excellent observations. I do not believe that politicians and/or FED has any stomach for deflation, neither do the ordinary people, inspite of them being hurt most( ironic ha). That is the reason the real deflation will not be allowed. There will be a stagflation and that means that EVEN BONDS WHICH WERE IN BULL MARKET FOR OVER 20 YEARS, will suffer. By your own argument everything is overblown, Bonds were in bull market for over 16 years. Dear Greenie. I believe they have had it. Long term time cylces for BONDS are in the range of 27-30 years. Now, It may not look anything like 70's grant you. But there maybe a gradual rise in interest rates next 3-6 years ( on and off, of course). You see that I actually agree with you somewhat, but the agreement comes on the side of the pace of interest rate growth not on their directio, which for me is UP.
Good Trading Dear Greenie
Dear Greenie, sorry for typo, bond were in the bull market over 26 years, since 1981, not 16 like I mistakenly wrote down there.
Good Trading
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