Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is closed for today. We traded successfully today, but left even more money at the table. Well, Just remember our second rule of trading ( see previous post (: : ) ). And we said this morning "Looking for Down day"... And a lot of our Excellent participants said the same... Clever Consensus Works!
Hi Boris, Today you can compare what happened today with what we expected last night...The plot labeled "$NDX - Average Crossover" shows price action that was above the projected levels of that trendline for the next day at the close, but it went on to complete at the next trendline higher up, on the chart labeled "$NDX -1.382 Crossover", where it rebounded downward rather nicely. Similarly, we saw the $SPX rebound downward off of the limit at 1492.14 just under the trendline value of 1492.89, shown on the chart "$SPX- 1.272 Crossover". It is currently, at the close today, resting on another trendline who's value is 1466.71 for tomarrow, on the chart la belled "$SPX - Average Crossover". This support trendline may assist a small bounce you are calling for tomarrow, but that said, although the Bullish percents gained some today, the McClellan Oscillators and per cent of stocks over their 50 day moving average fell, meaning overall we are still in a market environment that is getting weaker, not stronger. We should expect to retest the lows of August 16th, so any surprises, should be to the downside...Regards,Mark Lytle
11 comments:
Boris,
thanx, left some money on the table but there will be another bus tomorrow.
old john
Lag, Boris, All,
From the options chains, it looks like the put option sellers need the S&P 500 as near to 1500 as possible. They also must have the QQQQ above 50.
Once this support is removed and they reposition for the December expiration, we can go down. Just my two cents...
Blaine, I agree with you, that move at the close made the calls sell which wasn't worth much since they took it down so hard. But I think it will be hard to get the s&p back to 1500 by friday. waldo
Waldo,
I agree, it will be hard to get near 1500, but that level makes the most money for the put sellers. I think 1490 is more realistic.
The P/C ratio is between 3:1 and 5:1 from 1450 up to 1490. At 1500 it drops to 2:1, then it evens out.
Hi Boris and guys,
Interesting day, this was, I think if we do bounce tomarrow it will indeed be limited to 1490ish, there's too much resistance above that point..Market's pretty weak underneath anyway...
Have a good evening all,
Mark L.
THX Blaine -Mark
I dont have the options chain but that does support my veiw also with heavy resistance 1490-1500.
as I stated earlier the 5 days of trin talley a little over 4 which is a sell so another day or 2 near 1 on the trin wont hurt-lower the better of course.
THX again
Lag
from another blog--he has been real accurate
Despite yesterdays oversold bounce I still think the probablities are good for a waterfall decline in the near future. Hold onto those shorts. We aren't even close to anything that looks like bottoming action yet. You don't want to be out and take a chance of missing a big gap down open that doesn't fill. especially if the Fed were stupid enough to try and cut again. Another cut now could produce a black Monday type event IMO
from another blog
he has been real accurate
Despite yesterdays oversold bounce I still think the probablities are good for a waterfall decline in the near future. Hold onto those shorts. We aren't even close to anything that looks like bottoming action yet. You don't want to be out and take a chance of missing a big gap down open that doesn't fill. especially if the Fed were stupid enough to try and cut again. Another cut now could produce a black Monday type event IMO
lagscrew.
thanx, i am flat now but will do what the pressure gage suggest tomorrow and probably take a small short position for more than a day.
old john
Dear Boris,
If I may ask, do you take volume into account in deriving the early/latestayers, and your summation curves, or is your method based on price only?
Thank you, G.
Dear Greenie,
There is some volume consideration, but the weithing is not high.
Good Trading
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