N SPX 1458 ( 1454) - 1474
09:35 ET, Current YEN Status 1,1,0,1,1 , intraday favorable ( in general)
10:15 ET, Current YEN status 1,1,0,1,1, unchanged ( hourly sell signal is overpowering the 15 min and 5 min buy signals at this time)
10:26 ET, Current YEN status 1,1,0,1,1, unchanged ( hourly sell signal is overpowering the 15 min and 5 min buy signals at this time) only change... the 5 min buy has been reafirmed just now, meaning if YEN holds the low it can go higher
11:03 ET, the 15 min buy got reafirmed as well, while the status remains 1,1,0,1,1 the last two signals have just been reconfirmed, which is favorable for number rising ( YEN declining , for a very short time).
11:47 ET, YEN status remains the same and it has helped push YEN lower and stocks higher.
Jim Taylor, JD said...
Hi Boris,Hi JIM, Huge Reversal Today:Resistance Cluster:13340.57 DOW9801 (99sq) NYSE2670.30 NAZ 2093 NDX100 Best regards,Jim
Dear Readers, let me remind you that JD had a pretty good call about the SPX P&F generating the SELL signal just around the top of SPX. So, you ignore his statements at your own risk...
13:46 ET, YEN status 1,1,0,1,1 with all of that YEN is unable to get the positive momentum going. When an hourly sell so overpowers the 15 and 5 min buys, it looks like a market that wants to go down ( up for YEN)
Due to the question Dear Blaine asked, I will share with you the findings of one of the systems I developed a while ago. I wanted to know, what happens when the day is so strong that it is certain percent higher than the previous day and if I buy what chances do I have of making money 2 days after. ( meaning I buy on the big day and sell the open of the day after the after - second day).
The answer depends on the big day(ours Wednesday)... 82%(for Tuesday),62%(Wednesday,average winning trade is 1.6 spx points, average losing trade is -1.3 spx points),48%(Thursday),53%(Friday),46%(Monday) (HUH) of the time the market can be sold higher under those conditions ( for the history of SPX of 50 years). Ok!
For Wednsday not a big deal you have a chance of making some money, but more important outcome of this is that in either case the open of the second day is not very far from the big day close!!!!!!!!!!!!! I love this result it tells me do not hurry putting in the shorts, which confirms all other things we discussed today ( it is, almost, never immediate sell when tbe sell pressure becomes high... you need some distribution days). It is from all of those little peaces confirming each other that one gets confidence to trade.
15:46 ET, now this is fun to watch would not it be nice if the market (SPX) closed 0-4 points above yesterday and then open tomorrow somewhere within that range. It would be right down the statistics I gave you above ( AMAZING, but please understand there were 27 or so trades of this kind in 50 years and there was some deviation, averages never tell entire story)
21 comments:
Hi Boris,
Huge Reversal Today:
Resistance Cluster:
13340.57 DOW
9801 (99sq) NYSE
2670.30 NAZ
2093 NDX100
Best regards,
Jim
Yesterday, all 30 Dow components were higher. Does anyone have any historical data on the market performance after a day when all 30 Dow components are higher?
I suspect we saw buying capitulation yesterday. Some historical data may help.
Thanks!
Dear Blaine,
I do not have such information. even though this may not be so difficult to construct.
I am just lazy.
Take all the 30 dow stock ascii files and run the change diff on every stock and just count them per day.
Script will do , there is no need to write the whole big program for this. I am lazy getting files though, definitely lazy...
Good Trading
I do know bullish percentage did not rise 1 point yesterday on the dow. I think what that means is 50% on buy signal and 50% on sell signal according to the p&f chart. Hope this helps. waldo.
sorry I didn't give you enough info, bullish percentage on the dow is at 50.
Dear Waldo,
Thanks for all the info.
Good Trading
Boris, what is JD trying trying to say???? reversal in which direction. Excuse my ignorance!
stan
Dear Stan, JD is saying that the market is reversing lower afater being repelled from those levels he refers as clusters( values for various indices).
Good Trading
I am ready to sign up for a foreign language course--and I thought learning "latin" in graduate school was difficuult!
thanks, stan
I am ready to sign up for a foreign language course--and I thought learning "latin" in graduate school was difficuult!
thanks, stan
I am ready to sign up for a foreign language course--and I thought learning "latin" in graduate school was difficuult!
thanks, stan
Dear Stan,
Take me with you ... I can use learning some ENGLISH myself, do not laugh(: :).
Key word there was resistance. You know the resistance, right? it means you go to something and it prevents you from going futher. Well, market went up towards those levels and did not make it much or at all beyond that. That is why the direction is clear. Now if indices go back up and attack those levels and go further it does not mean that JD's idea is wrong ( it could be though ), depending how far thosel levels are passed.
Good Trading Dear Stan
Dear Blaine,
see an indirect answer to your question about "what happens..."
It is in the post.
Short answer is ... for Wednesdays, the big day... the probability is 62 % that we can sell the market higher on the open of two days after the big day ( Friday for us, tomorrow!)
Good Trading
Thanks Boris very valuable info. waldo.
Dear Waldo,
Thanks ENJOY.
GOod Trading
JimT/JD... a swing and a miss or as Letterman says - no match, the board gos back. My turn now - Hugh Reversal MONDAY!! All in fun.
BTY - we need a little down right here to keep forming a nice head and shoulders on the SPX today.
Dear SQROOT,
Good Afternoot to you(: :)
YOu were gone for a while, I hope you had a good time...
We missed you here.
And you probably are right as it takes on average 2-3 days of distribution for the sell to take hold.
Good Trading
Hi Jedi Boris!! Yes, took the holiday to see the grandkids, had a great time. Good Trading!!!
Dear SQROOT,
Good Staff, I am glad you have the priorities right!
GOod Trading
Boris and all,
Just to add to the discussion, the rally so far is a .398 retrace of the run down from 1576.09 on the $SPX (close to 38% retrace) on the $NDX we are almost exactly at the 50% retrace (.494)..both of these are levels where markets often pullback..
Mark L.
Dear Mark,
Thanks a lot and Yes, definitely that probability is increasing that we may have hit, at least, the temporary resistance.
Good Trading
Post a Comment