Dear Readers, buy pressures remain high, but market is not performing. Our gages have a built in flexibility to handle these situations. They state, as long as the market keeps going lower, it does not matter that buy signal exists, it will only be actionable when the market turns. So, while you may look for a turn from low limits, if you are already shot, you just stay short. That is how we hung in July to August waterfall. All other comments about dates remain unchanged.
Notes From Marco-Peltier
The credit market is collapsing. Spreads and yields have never been so high in the last 4 years. The last time spread were so high was aug 2003 and the SP was trading some 400 points lower.
31 comments:
Very quiet here again this morning..
just a comment, the Put/Call ratios are currently extremely high, way above even 8/16/07..seems odd to me...It could flip to such a high reading just before a holiday..
Mark L.
a trin reading of around 1.20 (closing)will give a buy signal today
Just to mention this, that the $NASI and $NYSI hasn't bottomed yet and weekly Stochastics hasn't reached the level of previous corrections since 2004...
so I'm skeptical that today is the bottom..I think it's still a little ways out..
Mark L.
Mark
I saw that last night to and kinda made the hair on my head stand up
Boris, If you see the dollar rebounding, would that kill the gold and precious metals rally. Or would that be a chance to get in on pull backs.Just asking your opinion. Thanks and good trading to all!
Are we closed part of a day Friday?
Hi Lag,
The real question is whether we violate the 8/16/07 bottom. the Dow Theorists say if that happens we've entered a Primary Bear market..I think there's a certain possibility of that happening as I can count 3 waves up from 2002..and given the overall pattern and the backdrop of Bank crisis, I think violation of 1370 is a distinct possibility..not a certainty, but very possible..
Mark L.
Hi Mark
It sure seems possible with the sub prime as bad as it is. The Yen is lower also (than Aug) now causing the carry to unwind and we still arnt at the Aug lows.
Actually seems as tho we should be much lower at this point. May be the PPT is getting help from others as well????
Another thing I noticed (today) that the Dec. e-mini is running only 1/2 point higher at the lows today. normally that is a bad sign as it is usually 3-5 higher in the past.
Now that we are in a bear ( I think) alot of these signs will be diff. so will have to rethink the #'s----Mark I am new to trading so some of my thoughts may be off the wall. Only been messing with things for 5-6 yrs and dabbled in them for 10. Nice to have a few teachers here---THX
LAG
Just pulled up a monthly chart on Yen--has a nice triangle formed with a trend line near 96.
We have passed 3 prior peaks on the monthly which is very bullish
(Rick Ackerman uses this)last one being near 88.5
so it looks like 96 is very possible here
Someone care to comment?
LAG
Also remember a trin around 2 or more (close) is usually followed by an up day. Dont know for sure but ill bet is near 80%
I may be posting to much here. LOL
just giving the newer newbee's a few things Ive learned.
LAG
Lag,
I think it's very possible that the day after thanksgiving will be an up day as that's when the 10 week cycle "tops" and has maximum buying pressure, so that would be consistant with a high $trin reading today...So, I think you're right...
Mark L.
So that topping means more down after that I guess?
Lag,
Yes, that's right..
Mark L.
All,
Whereas 8/16/07 was a spike low, a single day bottom, I keep checking my various fibonacci and exponential results and it looks like that this will be a double bottom or maybe a ratty one like 10/05 was..I get lots of Fib stuff in the 10/28 to 12/3 time period, enough to think there is "something" out there..
possibly a double bottom with the 10/26/07 date...not sure...just be aware it probably won't play exactly like 8/16/07..
Mark L.
g'day all. lag: re part-day friday and thanksgiving trading, you might be interested in this analysis, although it's got a bit of age on it:
http://personal.fidelity.com/myfidelity/atn/archives/november2003.html
malcolm
Malcolm--it doesnt work
Mark L,
What is your take on the VIX downtrending with the SPX since Nov 12th? I observe these levels:
11/12 SPX = 1439, VIX = 31.09
Today SPX = 1427, VIX = 25.43
Can the VIX be trusted here?
Thanks,
Blaine
http://personal.fidelity.com/myfidelity/atn/
archives/november2003.html
Also some declining wedges on spy-dia-nya
from about 20th Oct. other than a minor poke thru to the upside on nov 14th
Bullish
blaine, marty chenard at stocktiming.com has vix forming a triangle from which a breakout will occur (on boris's 26th?).
chenard, who is a conservative trader - see his profile at the site for where he's coming from in relation to motivation about helping people to avoid the financial ruin that afflicted a family member - expects to recommend shorting after a predicted bounce and formation of a lower top.
Blaine,
I guess that would be some kind of positive divergence you're seeing..Makes sense if the bottom is close..
Mark L.
Dear Mark,Lag,Malcolm,Chronictown,Blaine, Readers,
My apologies to all that I could not serve today and my admiration and gratitude goes to the above who braved to go ahead and do what they needed to do and also keep the blog alive.
I am not sure why such little thunder and rain should cause so much problem, but today it happened. computers kept disconnecting, i kept restarting software and complete the jobs that have not....
Long story short thanks.!!!
Good Trading
Boris --Think most are on their way for Thxgiving anyway
Yes Dear Lag,
Happy Turkey day to you and all
Good Trading
Boris--You guys eat turkey there to?
Dear Lag, but of course(: :)
We love turkey, especially on turkey day!
Good Holiday Dear Lag
Mark my words, folks, much lower prices, (anywhere from 3 to 10 percent) before any sort of decent rally occurs. End of story.
dear Exwardo,
I hope you are right for your sake, but we may not have enough days for down turn on this move to make the 3% or higher move down.
It could happen, of course, but QQQQ must clear 48.25 first. Then that could be possible
Good trading
You may be right. I could see a quick 3-4% down that ends early next week (isn't Boris date next week), then a rapid move up casued by short covering to touch the 20dma's before the next down leg begins.
Let's all make some money
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