Dear Readers, The National SOPITALIST Casino is now closed. We did not trade today and we did advise members to look for short opportunities couple days ago, which should have turned out fine for those who did. After updating the charts we may have clearer direction for next week.
21 comments:
Dear Old John,
I apologize for not answering your question from Wednesday. After posting, I signed off for the day and never went back to look at old posts until now.
As for what I see at the moment, I use the Toronto Stock Exchange as my read for markets. In Elliot terms, it is in a fifth wave of a fifth wave. Because fifth waves can either fail or finish complete, the markets can move either direction on monday because they closed friday right at the point of decision on the 5th wave.
Other observations - GOOG broke down on the MACD trendline on the 60 minute chart on friday - perhaps the first crack.
Dow 13690 has been an obvious support/resistance line for several months now. Now that the market is under it, I don't expect to get back above it, and would be the low risk entry point on a short if the market manages to get back to it.
If the market sells off, taking out friday's low (on a closing basis) would be ominous as the current uptrend will clearly be over.
Since AAPL reported, it has hugged the underside on $190. I was concerned that it might pop to the next fib extension level, but it looks to be beaking down technically as well. No guarantees.
I am including links to four charts that have been my bread and butter for timing my shorts. They more or less do the same thing except that they are daily and weekly charts for both the NAS and NYSE.
The weekly charts have generated excellent sell signals on crossovers. (to demonstrate the usefulness of these charts - range out the NAUD weekly to 8 years and notice how it stayed on buy all the way up during the tech boom, and hit the sell the second week of march 2000, with the NAS still at 4900.)
Currently, everything is still on buy but the NYSE daily is very weak. The relative strength of the NAS is very evident from these charts, and usually gives a sell signal a day or too after the NYSE.
In Elliot terms, a sell signal usually represents the top of a wave 3, leading into a wave 4, or the end of a wave 5.
All the best,
Mark P
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p14693099380&a=119677468&listNum=2
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAUD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04463456504&a=119427339&listNum=2
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p28189206288&a=106441405&listNum=2
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50942986672&a=103683153&listNum=2
I am assuming you will be able to view these charts, my apologies if you can't. Also, these charts don't get updated until several hours after the close each day.
Mark,
thank you for your work. I will check the charts now.
Old JOhn
Mark,
Had trouble with the links, I am positive it is me and my lack of computer ability. I have started to run some of the indexed with your time frame ( 8 yrs.) and I do see the crossover of the MACD. Hopefully I will be able to do this
thanks again
Old John
Hi,
It is possible that these links only work for people with stockcharts.com memberships.
In any event, they are actually very simple charts to recreate.
Just type in the tickers ($naud,etc..) and use the SAR function with the standard parameters to create the chart.
Mark
Mark
they worked fine for me
I just highlite and copy then paste the address---one thing is you should hit the linkable version at the bottom of chart to keep it or send (John)
Lag
THX Mark
Lagscrew, Mark
thanx, got it.
Old John
mark p....
great charts.....
i tried plugging in the ftse, dax and smi using yur $NYUD weekly parameters
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ftse&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04463456504
all 3 charts are the same....
any comments/warnings/recommendations you could offer here
thank in advance
Mark,
It took me a while but it worked out with a little help.
Old John
G'day Boris and team. Useful charts Mark P; thanks.
For a bit of weekend reading, here's a report from Le Metropole Cafe:
LARRY (LAWRENCE) LINDSEY LAYS IT OUT
One of the speakers I was particularly interested in hearing at the New Orleans Investment Conference this year was Larry (Lawrence) Lindsey, the former economic advisor to President George Bush in the very early years of his first term in office.
The reason that I dragged myself out of bed at 7:15 in the morning to hear him (a tough thing to do when you're whooping it up almost every night) had to do with an event that occurred in the second year of GATA's existence. The brighter lights at GATA had figured out that there was a serious problem in the gold market, and that the bullion banks were not only short massive amounts of the physical metal but also had a stack of derivatives written against gold as well.
Bill Murphy, GATA's chairman, approached a life-long friend of Dubya's and was able to send an executive summary of these concerns directly to the president via his private fax at the White House. Bush had been president for only a few months, and there was concern that this problem, which had started under Clinton, would blow up on the Bush watch.
Murphy received a reply the same day, but it came from Larry Lindsey rather than Bush. In his reply, Lindsey acknowledged receipt of the fax but wrote that he wasn't prepared to comment because GATA consultant Reg Howe had filed suit against the Bank for International Settlements, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department, plus a host of bullion banks, for rigging the gold market; and the case was still in the courts. Can't comment because it's before the courts? He's a public servant, and there's nothing in law that precludes government officials from commenting on matters in litigation.
Anyway, we soon discovered that President Bush and his cronies weren't going to do a thing about it; and the fact of the matter was that the Bush administration was just as involved as the Clinton administration.
Anyway, that's where it sat until I got to New Orleans.
The first thing that Lindsey asked when he started his speech was whether the cameras mounted in the speaker's hall were TV cameras. Once he was assured that they weren't, away he went. I made notes, but I'm going to do some paraphrasing here and touch only the high points, but you'll get the drift.
The first thing he said was that he was a card-carrying member of the Brotherhood of International Central Bankers; and once a member, always a member…all for one, and one for all.
He commented that the Fed had turned the humble home from a place to live into a financial asset that had become a cash cow for homeowners who were using it like an ATM machine. Now we've all heard that before, but coming from him, it was candor I wasn't expecting. He went on to say that once the Fed noticed how bad the quality of loans was becoming, they were reluctant "to tinker with a boom," so they sat on their hands.
His charts went into the CDO problem, the ABCP (asset-backed commercial paper) market, and mortgage-backed securities ... the lot. He said that it will "force banks et al. to mark these products to market (over time) instead of their current practice of marking to model ... or to myth." He wasn't the least bit worried about how the hedge funds would manage because, as he said, they were very good at looking after themselves -- or words to that effect.
With a "happy face," he appeared delighted that Wall Street had been able to unload hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of (now toxic) CDOs on the rest of the world, saying that "we Americans were very clever" in doing this.
He showed graphs of the real estate market including the number of months of supply and said that now that the real estate credit cycle had ended, few would be able to refinance their existing mortgages that had previously had all those teaser rates, and that housing prices were going to go into a steep decline.
In answer to a question from the audience about the obviously bogus CPI numbers, Lindsey said that it was a government statistic and that, speaking as a businessman himself, anyone in business should definitely not rely on it!
His comments on interest rates were to the effect that "by mid-2008, the Fed Funds rate would be 3.5%."
There was much more to the speech than this, but it was all along the same lines of "yep, we created this economic, financial and monetary monster, here's the road map of how we did it, and the results. Now it's up to the citizens of the U.S. and the rest of the world's financial community to live with the consequences."
His comments were eerily similar to those made back in the early '70s by then-Treasury Secretary John Connolly, when he said (to European central bankers, I believe), "It may be our currency, but it's your problem." Going further back in time, Marie Antoinette (shortly before being relieved of her head) said, "Let them eat cake."
And you were wondering why the Treasury International Capital numbers were so bad in August? Wonder no longer.
As soon as the speech was over, I hurried out into the hall to catch Lindsey before he took off. I managed to get a couple of minutes alone with him, picking up a few more items I found of interest.
First, I asked him how he felt about being removed from his advisory position with Bush after having the audacity to predict that the U.S. war in Iraq would cost at least $200 billion. This week, of course, we heard that the new estimates have it that the war will cost $2.4 trillion.
He shoved right past the question and said that it was a war that the U.S. must win because the security of the U.S. and the world depended on it. He pointed out to me that Franklin Roosevelt had spent 150% of U.S. GDP on WWII. I jumped in rather bravely and asked, "Does that mean the U.S. is prepared to spend $15 trillion on this war?" Lindsey thought about it for two seconds and said that 150% of GDP was more like $22 trillion and if that was what was required, so be it. At that moment I felt like Alice in Wonderland shortly after she had taken the red pill. I was incredulous.
Going further down the rabbit hole, I now forayed into the gold world. I worded my next question in such a way that he couldn't answer it with a simple yes or no. I mentioned his comments in the speech about CPI and told him that it was obvious that the inflation genie was out of the bottle, as commodity prices were on the rise and even gold was up to $750. I asked him how long he thought the Fed and the Treasury Department were going to hold the gold price down. He answered something along the line of, "Neither the U.S. Treasury or the Fed is doing anything to influence the gold price. It's all coming from the European central banks." He then volunteered that he was, in fact, a "gold bull" because of all that was currently happening in the world. He then repeated that fact that he was a "gold bull."v
By then a crowd had gathered around us, and questions from others were being asked. The first question was about a dollar devaluation, either planned (Plaza Accord-style) or unplanned, and how that would affect the U.S. Lindsey's answer was that it was foreign holders of dollar assets that would be hurt the most, not the U.S. When pressed on this particular point, Lindsey said that, "no, a 20-30% drop in the value of the dollar would have minimal impact within the U.S."
By this time, Lindsey was starting to look like the Mad Hatter, so I knew that it was time to go. I took the blue pill and crawled out of the rabbit hole.
I wish you had been there. Lindsey's speech and answers to my questions and those of others were totally off the charts. However, he was a great speaker and a really charming guy…the 21st-century’s equivalent of a salesman selling snake oil out of the back of a covered wagon.
In celebration, I bought some more physical gold. Then I put a deposit on the (slightly used) WWII surplus twin 50-calibre machine gun that the Mogambo Guru had put up for sale.
See you in the trenches, and bring your crash helmet with you.
Ed Steer, Director
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, Inc.
Edmonton, Alberta
Canada
e-mail: edsteer48@shaw.ca
Boris.....
Good evening.....
I was looking at the euro/usd....
What do you see in your charts the next few days?
Malcolmm.....
Great story.....it's just great to hear stories like this.....
too bad Lindsay didn't give us a target for gold and euro/usd :-)
Futures are not looking good for the longs. Citi has a new leader but starting to confess the losses that are being taken.
Old John
Hello again. This analysis/commentary at the Jesse’s Charts site is worth a look – go to http://www.geocities.com/arthurcutten/jesse.html and click on CyclePro Update. There are inflation-adjusted Dow charts, plus other interesting charts and commentary, and a link to “America’s Forgotten War Against the Central Banks” which if you haven’t run across the dollardaze site before warrants a read.
Regards and good trading
Malcolm
Thanks Malcolmm for the reference to Geocities as it has good charts and practical advise. Everyone be careful, follow the yellow brick road, and watch the "limits". This may be a very interesting week.
Good trading to all and thank you Boris.
Hillbilly
Dear Malcolm,
Thanks for nice references. The long view of the charts presented is invaluable.
Good trading
Dear Xerxes,
Not much has changed in my $ and GOLD outlook.
I siad in June "this may be your last opportunity to buy GOLD". Well, people can judge that article at safehaven.com.
I said that $ will go to hell, starting September. Well, I do not know how many people were so precise.
I had also predicted that minimal time for these trends to continue will be DEC of 2007 and some spillover into FEB/March for Currencies especially.
Nothing has changed, exactly nothing. I am confused with my own success, but it can happen to nice guys too.
Gold 794 initial target has been left behind, EURO 145 has been left begind.
I think we are due for a nasty correction ( lastring 3-7 days) and off we go agian into the end of DEC with GOLD old highs revisited 875 and EURO around 146-148.
At that time( break of 2008) we are going to see a more serious correction develop with the echo decline of $ into FEB/MARCH
Good Trading
Dear Hilbilly,Mark,JOhn, Lag, Thank you all for you comments.
Good Trading
All,
Need an opinion on SKF or is it too late.
thanx
Old John
Dear John,
The SKF is at the respectable support twice rejected to go beyond the 94. If it does it will reach 115, pretty bad.
Good Trading
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