Saturday, November 24, 2007

How many Wakeup Calls?











Dear Readers. How many wake up calls does it take for Dollar to come out of the coma that it is in lately? Well, I think the above oscillator shows the first serious wake up call in last 3 months. As I say this may not be the last of the Dollar swoons ( expect it to continue into the end of this year), but it is the one that I was waiting for the beginners.






Hi Boris, Here I have taken two time scales on the $USD chart, and ran the pivots for both sets of waves (the smaller time scale I ran both the impulsive and the corrective waves) to see if anything stands out. There is quite a cluster of activity in February and particularly towards the end of that month. For each chart I am looking mostly at the 1.0 nodes as they usually represent completion of the Elliot wave sequence in question. On each chart you will see sets of three lines in groups that are shaded dark blue, dark green, and violet. Those represent the 1.272, average, and 1.382 time basis for each node, respectively. You can observe the exponential expansion of time by watching successive nodes spread out across the page. many of the lines pictured clearly demarcated major tops and bottoms, and some of course, were misses, but strong signals emerge when dates from different pivots overlap or nearly so. On chart1, the pivots are these dates: 9/8/92, 8/17/98 and 7/5/01 (basically start, wave 3 and wave 5 on the chart) and their associated $USD values. This produced a 1.0 node out at 2/4/08. This is the largest scale and probably the least accurate. Chart 2 and chart 3 zoom down to the period of early 2005 towards the present. Chart 2 uses the points labeled Start, wave 1 and wave 5 as pivots to produce the time nodes shown. A 1.0 (average basis node) shows up at 2/27/08. Chart 3 uses the corrective waves in the same time frame (also start, wave 1, and wave 5, corrective) and sees a 3/4 node also at 2/27/08 and a 1.0 node at 2/19/08.We have two hits on 2/27/08, but at the very least it looks like there is some feature(s) out there in mid to late February...It's possible the dollar could bottom before then, but there is quite a bit of clustering out there in February...Regards,Mark L.
Dear Mark, Thanks from me and our readers. I have been saying the FEB/MAR 2008 as a final Dollar top or the double top or lower top ( in short final gasp of Dollar Bears) for almost a Year now connecting the timing with the Jewish Holiday Passover, for the lack of other important signposts at that time. Well, If your research confirms it, we can all be even more confident that there is a method to my lunacy ( for predicting this thing way before many of these pivot points existed) and actually without any research, but the type of "RoadMapping' method I have developed for all securities I monitor. Good work and thanks again.

8 comments:

xerxes said...

Hello Boris.....

I trust you had a fantastic TG break!

It's Sunday morning where I am and I was looking at a Saxo chart of the buck and its various x's....Most show dramatic moves at exactly 5:00 pm Eastern Time on Friday....I was not engaged at the time.....

Do you think it's an artifact or a real move? I'd like your opinion..
as I'm a bit of a rookie... Additionally, what is your expectation for the buckeroo on Monday and Tuesday and thru the week?

boris said...

Dear Xerxes,
I am not sure what significance those "moves" after market close have. They seem to be just stupid charing problems...

I do know that $US has opened and traded slightly lower in Israel ( Sunday is a trading day in Israel).

Nothing to write home about 3.86 versus 3.88 cose Friday.

We shelss see when markets open tomorrow ( tonight).

I expect the EURO to reach, at least 1.45, if not on this move than sometime before the last surge above 1.50 before the end of this year.

Until then exact daily actions could hard to gage, even though I am biased on $US making more recovery next week and then the final swoon

Good Trading

mlytle said...

Hi Boris,
Just sent some Exponential Time node work to you on the $USD index..Kind of interesting..

Mark L.

mlytle said...

Boris,
Here's another interesting fact, if you take the span of days from the bottom at 12/31/04 in the $USD index to the top in that index at 11/16/05, and then multiply and extend that span by 2.618, you get the approximate date 3/4/08. Which is basically one of the important dates on your equities roadmap and only 4 trading days away from the 2/27/08 exponential node cluster I just described...interesting..

Mark L.

mlytle said...

That time span is extended out from the 11/16/05 high, I guess I forgot to mention that..
Mark L.

Anonymous said...

Shopping #'s

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-holiday-shopping-started-strongly/story.aspx?guid=%7B761122BA%2D7E33%2D4DEF%2DB58D%2D6969D3749454%7D

john said...

Boris,
thanx again
old john

Mark,
on a trip with wife, when i return i will try to grasp book. thanx

boris said...

Dear Lag,
They better spend those $US as they will have no value soon(: :)

Good Trading