How about Call/Put ratios?
Almost breakeven, Anticipate sharp early move.
Good Trading
Good Trading
We have lost pennies out of $'s we gained, but the reason is this. The dreaded fractal, I was talking about materialized. Look at this structure it looks like a soccer lifting up taking aliens with it. Ha? I could see it possible when discussing the triangles with Kindspirited. Did not think it had that great of a chance. Well, next train...
What caused it anyway? Look at the inflation reports on the BLOOOMBERG chart. If you believe these inflation numbers, I have a retired person to sell to you...
26 comments:
out in QQQQ premarket. 2C loss
Instead of upfloating, we got up rocketing... Ha.
They are out to kill any commited shorts.
Good morning Boris,
Is this the fractal James was referring to yesterday?
Thanks
Dear Paul, No this is something I was refering to in my discussions with Kindspirited from two days ago. Search for "fractal" on the blog you will see it. But more importantly look at it. Just look at it and remember these forms happen.
Good Trading
Dear Readers,
Remember all big bull markets end with beng. You could be looking at one, if QQQQ does not make new highs soon 44.85.
Good Trading
Im holding through this little operation. My needles are pegged on SELL.Low inflation??? These pigs have no shame...I come up with at least 6.5% Best JC
Dear James,
Yes it does not take two people to support family that one used to just 20 years ago.
But AARP apprently has better things to do.
Cheers.
Good Trading
Boris, what is your take on the ETF SPY trading at 142.6 when the SPX is 129.31? The SPY actually opened down this morning. perhaps just got ahead of itself? does it usually track at a discount? I held my Q's Jan puts, but certainly nail biting
correction I ment SPX 1429.31
Dear Kindspirited,
The manipulations in the market run so deep no that it is not even funny. Anything is possible, but the trusted method is to look at the "internals" of the market and it shows pretty unstable picture for next 4-5 days.
As explained in my morning posting pressure were/are bulding for sell in the market and a true fundamentals guy would wait for it to play out. Today's rise, if such, will certainly move the sell-pressure in the extreme category and, as you know the downturn will follow with some delay. If this rally in QQQQ does not take a new high out and/or just acceeds it a bit that, in my opinion will show a more profound decay in the market forces. We need, now, to wait for that to play out into the mid-end of next week and see how it is.
Good Trading.
Dear James, I think it is time to call the CALL/PUT ratio bearish?
What say you?
GOod Trading
Boris yes extremely bearish yesterday also... Thats why Im holding on in the face of this rally. This reminds me of May 5 2006. Best JC
Hi James,
Is that the period you were referring to yesterday on your fractal. Late April early May 06?
No Paul I have been looking at a daily chart of NDX 12/1/05 thru 1/1/06. That still seems OK so far but I may have to evaluate maybe just rhymes. I hope that clears it up. Best JC
I see p/c ratios at extreme also, as well as VIX at 9.4. Inflation down, but from what true level, not government numbers. however, we all know price of tvs, computers etc are down but non essential compared to health care and education for example. at any rate, a lowering of goods inflation not good for stock market, no pricing power. And energy and commodities not likely to go down. I just do not see why the giddiness at 12,480. Cannot ignore monetary pumping which goes into stock market though-- and year end bonuses! I feel caught in a vice... not interested in arguing with Mr. Market who is always right at the moment..
Dear James, Now you are talking.
Yes that what it looks like.But as Kindspitited says, until we get the crazies out of the way, market weill not go down. This may have done it.
We will see on the next down move.
Good Trading My Friends.
one other comment, the SPX obviously above upper trendline resistance, bull trap perhaps. I have noticed many fake out break outs, I trade gold stocks and Sept 1 was example of bull trap- after clear break up to get investors commited, the XAU tanked. I see lots of fake outs these days, probably because TA used so much, so professionals can use that to trap weak traders whether long or short. Also on inflation, down because of weakening economy, also not good for stock market in addition to no pricing power.
I am looking at intraday SPY spiders trust, I think it shows market direction better
Kindspirited, you could be right.
Definitely fakeouts today.
Good trading
You have to know when to hold-em. When to fold-em. and when to run....LOL JC
Dear Reders,
It seems to me like this market has indeed imbarked on a 4 day move up ( that was yesterday ) as we discussed then, and will go on unitl midday of Tuesday next week. Now I think the biggest moves have been made these two days and next two days will be the "churning" days. After which I see a decline.
Good Trading
I am trying to figure out who is profiting from 1 hour UP and 7 hours of distribution. Again, this has been the theme since July lows.....if you go back and look at the charts, there have been about 8 days which accounted for 95% of the move off July lows...........can anyone explain this to me ?
Dear Kenneth, they are not taking my money... that is for sure, but here is what I would say. Not everybody is as lucky as myself taking out 60/70 cents a pop and returning 4 or 5 back. So here is my theory, which could be good for all times for all markets. For a market to go up, somebody must buy and somebody must sell, with the buyers bidding higher pushing the prices up. So it takes shorts to make the longs happy. You see all the put(insurance) sellers, not even talking about naked put sellers, have created a ready "meals" for the longs. If you are going to run a racket you need partcipants. So the wall street invented it. They sell insurance(puts) Then push the market up so that the insurance expires worhtless ( Ha... Ha...). As they push the market up the volatility reduces, and option premiums plummet ( low VIX ). Now ths encourages more put buying by those that want/need protection and by thouse that speculate ( premium looks cheap after all). Now, do you see a PFL ( positive feedback loop) dear kenneth? it is beautiful until it lasts and FED feeds the fire into it. FED is wall streets friend... etc. The only problem is at some point many fatcats as setting on big fat profits and they are afraid that the game might end ( maybe close there) and they do not buy insurance, but sell the stock instead ( Ha.. did you see insider selling numbers lately ). And the PFL starts in the other direction just run my scenario with premiums rising and nobody buying puts in the falling market.
Good Trading
Dear Kenneth, Just to spice this up. think about it. Some people may want to sell in Jan. So that that have less taxes to pay, by holding more than a year. Would that not be a good time for the reverse PFL to start?
Cheear KindSpirited.
Good Trading
Well, if thats what really drives the market, then, if you watched options ROLLING (Wednesday, Thursday before expiry) then would that not tell you EXACTLY what the Big Boyz were doing with their positions ? For example, this months rolling shows the most activity in March '07 SPX 1450 PUTS.....which tells me that the Boyz are looking for higher prices all the way into March
Dear Kenneth, certainly can not ignore the High in March, We do not think anything is out of the question here. At the same time, looking at the P/C rations right not and right here seems to indicate that there is more call buying all the time than the put buying. Since the big boys write calls as well as puts the have the choce where to drive the market. To me path of the least resistance at this time is shifting to the downside, but I am a trader, I go with the flow. Theories form the direction I prefer, but I trade with the flow.
Good Trading
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