Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Need Fast/Strong Surge, or else
The markets must use this opportunity to break out and leave the lows in the dust or become dust themselves. In our opinion the later is the more probable at this point. Gold is still hard to trust, but seems ok and XOI is not ready for new highs any time soon. Good Trading
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13 comments:
Good to see you back Boris
Thanks Dear Paul,
I am not sure if everybody had the problems like mine, but this was not fun at all. I worried so much about people having perhaps critical questions and not being there. So fare so good. We may hear later if anybody had problems thogh. Paul You are from USA right?
Good Trading
Yes Boris actually Chicago
Dear Paul,
Say hello to windy city from Boris. Remember how a young engineer just out of Iron Curtain ended up in Sears Tower... Well and other things of scientific note, such as Batavia Fermi Lab. Got enough good things to remember, but bad ones too. The Chicagoe SP futures traders took good money from me as I was just getting started in trading, but hey most of those bustards were not from CHICAGO anyway... How are the Bears doing, have they clinched yet the finals?
Good Trading
The Bears look good. Even at 13-2 they are not getting enough credit. The NFC is relatively weak this year so if we can win two playoff games at home Superbowl here we come. It looks like someone is buying some cheap insurance on the QQQQ's today Jan. 42 Puts 50,000+ vol. The Big Boys in the pits look bearish out till March.
Dear Paul, I wish Bear all the best as my Steelers will not make it there, so it may as well be bears. Every time I remember Richard Bent, I am reminded of mean Joe Green, at least in sature if not in other similarity...
Can you elaborate on Big Boyz being bearish?
Good Trading
QQQQ's underperforming today. Could be AAPL although they are way off their lows of the day. I think we top sometime today or tomorrow and get a small pullback which bottoms around Wed. of next week. Similar to your outlook.
Bill Rempel at his blog posted a chart which analyzed the open interest on DEC. 07 leaps. Also the Commercials based on the COT reports since June have been heavily leaning bearish.
Dear Paul,
I also think that the top will, most likely, come tomorrow at 50% , 60% ( less likely) retrace by QQQQ. As far as the bottom, I think it could be complete before or early 2007. You know, Paul, by now, that we can change our minds very qucikly, based on what is happening in the field, Just like GI Joe, we must stand nimble on our feet. I just wish people stop buying these PUTs, for as long as though they are part of the selffulfilling prophecy of Wall Street Option Writers, the more options people buy the less desire for establishment to push stocks lower-> the slow up drifting market lowers volatility -> the put options become cheaper-> the more cheap put options boght-> and the cycle just keeps repeating wihtout end especially with the support of FED's cheap money. When the cycle breaks thogh , the hell will be the price to pay in the other direction. We just need to stay there and play with it both ways.
Good Trading
Good Trading
Hi Boris et al, been watching mainly forex: USD - EUR - JPY.
Also thin holiday markets, but . . .
Am now hedged with bought EURUSD & sold EURJPY, which is = sold USDJPY.
All curently profitable, and signals on the 90 minute charts confirming so far.
What might this mean for world equity markets if it holds and marks a change of trend after New Years?
I.e.:
USD down-down-down . . .
JPY up-up-up . . .
EUR muddling along somewhere in between . . .
???
just musing so far, wife takes computer now, back tonmorrow.
Regards,
?
Dear Cobbense,
I would not surprised with your scenario, but somewhere between Jan-Feb and May-Jun, Dollar will kick into high gear and lot of $shorts will be confused/losing and lost. Make sure we stay around to finetune this scenario, but in the big picture agree completely.
Good Trading
Most of the stuff I'm looking at has us going a little higher. I mostly look at price patterns and options. There is quite a bit of opposing forces going on right now. I'd like to see a large drop and I think you are right but I think the markets can grind on till March maybe early April. The Q's look bound between 42-44 for Jan. just based on open interest. Any large drop in the first quarter has to be precipitated by a news event.
Dear Paul,
I agree, event is what is needed, but the events are always there just like the tsunami, all it takes a right confulence of things and it erupts and one can never see it coming until it is almost late, that is why we are watching the internals of the market so closely. These have the way of telling what is possible, just like my knees can tell, often, whan the rain is coming.
Good Trading
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