Dear Readers, I appreciate your time with us today. We hope you enjoyed the discussions, charts and brainstorming that occurred here today. Thanks James,Paul,Kenneth,Kindspirited(not in any order) for your wisdom shared today. We had very profitable week with close to 2% percent gains in QQQQ/XOI/GLD even though we gave back 12C last couple days. I'll take this any week from next to no end. I would like to leave you with this. Never mind DOW/SPX highs, QQQQ has failed to produce one, TRAN is still diverging with DOW, GS was pitiful the entire week and today. P/C ratios have joined other sentiment indicators to show the bear is coming and I think above all, I hope( or you tell me otherwise ) BUY-SELL-PRESSURE has been very accurate in keeping us with the flow of the market. If anybody can find anything like that on the net, I am willing to jump on it.
Thanks Again and Good Trading.
10 comments:
Dear Reader, if you are out ther, and I believe there are many of you, looking at us. Show up. Give your support, share your stories. Ask your questions. I am sure all of you saw very good response to my "do not fear, Boris is here" compain(: :).
Good Trading
Dear Boris. I am reluctant to give opinions or ask certain questions because I am relatively inexperienced. I'm learning however and that is why I'm here listening to you talk with others. I am looking for market direction each day but I sometimes can't follow your strategy. You trade futures I believe and I don't. I simply go long or short certain stocks if I know the direction for market that day. You are looking for very short term moves and I'm not familiar with that type of trading. How do I trade like that. What instruments do I need? So many questions...
I'm still not 100% clear on how too interpret your charts. Oerhaps you could give me a refresher.
Thanks
Dear Danno,
All good questions. To trade like me you need knowledge it and only it makes you free. Mecahnically you need a trading account that you pay less than $4 roundtrip for stocks. I do not always trade futures, In fact most my trades mentiond here were stocks ( GLD,XOI,QQQQ all stocks rigth?). Ok, We have a long term portfolio and it is 85% cash+bonds 10 GOLD and 5% piplines, that is simple, I hope, ask questions if it is. For a short intermediate trades. It could be hard to grasp all term we use for the beginner, but ask questions P/C ratio, for example, if you do not know ask. It happens to be a simple ratio of all the puts and calls traded on a given exchanage. Things like that. Ask questions. That is the only way. For a short intermediate trader, I beleive watching the PRESSURE gages commentary is the best. You see simply put, when the market rises the SELL-PRESSURE rises and when the market dives the BUY-PRESSURE rises. That is because the smart money wants to sell discounted stocks and to sell the overpriced stocks. Once you understand that concept, it is easy to follow the PRESSURE gages. Looking at the graph and comparing the index (QQQQ/SPX ) action to the action of the PRESSURE it becomes clear what you need to do. As the BUY-PRESSURE rises to historically high levels(just glance at the chart) you need to get ready for purchasing stocks. The other way around when the SELL-PRESSURE rises, then you need to get ready to sell stocks. These are 1-4 day events as these PRESSURE lines jump up/down. Looking at the AVERAGEPRESSURE though, gives you an intermediate perspective. Again look at historically high and low poisitions of that curve(CYAN LINE) and see where you are if it is too low that means that market has been moving higher for a while( the a little BUY-PRESSURE has been needed to move it up, in another words the path of the least resistance had been up!). On the other hand if the CYAN LINE has been rising opposite was taking place, the path of the least resistance has been down for it. Now when you observe the change of direction in CYAN LINE from DOWN to UP,market is getting ready to go down, and the other way around, when the CYAN LINE turns UP from DOWN, market is getting ready to go up. This acts like an osciallotor of an intermedite lenght and it does not change direction as ofthen as BUY or SELL PRESSURE.
Example, yesterday I thought that the SELL-PRESSURE was not at the extreme, so it was very easy for me to make a call that market needs to go higher to draw the sellers in ( SELL-PRESSURE higher). It is really, really simple. Asking questions will make it automatic.
Great Danno, glad to answer your questions, pleas come atain.
Good Trading.
Dear Danno,
Correction.
"Smart money wants to buy discounted stocks and sell the overpriced stocks"
Good Trading
Dear Danno,
TOO EARLY FOR ME, ONE MORE CORRECTION (: :),
"Look at historically high and low poisitions of that curve(CYAN LINE) and see where you are. if it is too low that means that market has been moving higher for a while(a little BUY-PRESSURE has been needed to move it up, in another words the path of the least resistance, for the marekt, had been up!). On the other hand, if the CYAN LINE has been rising opposite was taking place, the path of the least resistance, for the market, has been down."
Dear Danno,
I TOLD YOU IT WAS TOO EARLY.
CORRECTION
"Now when you observe the change of direction in CYAN LINE to UP,market is getting ready to go down, and the other way around, when the CYAN LINE turns DOWN, market is getting ready to go up. This acts like an osciallotor of an intermedite lenght and it does not change direction as often as BUY or SELL PRESSURE."
Here is a person who sells trading signals based on market pressure.
This is FYI only, not a recomendation to buy his services.
caveat emptor, as always.
http://www.gentlemantrader.com/
As for options statistics, P/C ratios, etc., I think it is difficult or impossible to read anything out of these nowadays, as you do not now what other non-options positions the major options mongers may also have put on.
Spreads, hedging, etc., take many weird forms, you have no way of knowing.
Dear Cobbense,
I appreciate the site you gave to look at. What I meant though is a free information and good one at that, which that site is not( I mean free, I will check accuracy). There are many others of course, such as Lowery, which has been around forewer. Did someone ask what their service costs? Are they going to comment every morning, take the questions? Nevertheless we will look at anything.
I agree there are many problems with P/C ratios, but where there is a nor problem is if you use it at turning points and in conjunction with many other things, which we do. At the turnpoints when P/C rations change the direction they have a lot more predictive power. I hope to post soon my P/C ratio calculations that prove that. Agree in general though.
As alwasy thoghtfull comments.\
Good Trading
Dear Boris,
Thankyou very much for the tutorial. It is very helpful.
Danno
Dear Danno, Welcome, you see the only stupid question is the one that is not asked. Asking lead to knowledge, period.
I used to ask and work and ask and work and ask and wotk and now I am able to answer, at least trying to.
(: :).
Good To hear from you.
Good Trading
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