Dear FOX, I just got stopped out this SH.... with no loss, but... do not like being stopped. It could go the way XOI. did you see that sucker( we shorted it). Yes man it could go down, but all the trouble is coming our way, something, somebody must go up and the only thing I know that can do that is GOLD. You are correct I would like the yesterdays lows taken out. I shoted the XOI, cause I think it will be a weaker syster. Do you agree that XOI could be more down than gold? How about the question for your question(: :) Good Trading to you.
Yes, for the short-term, I would be a seller of XOI here, with target around 1183. But longer-term, it really has not topped yet; therefore, I would be very nimble.
As far as Gold is concerned, I agree completely with all the fundamental reasons to buy it, and in fact, I have owned the metal for the last 3-4 years, and I traded the stocks very actively a few years ago. But in the intermediate to short term it does have a way of emptying the maximum number of pockets before it starts, or continues, its real move. Accordingly, it looks weak to me now, as do the XAU/HUI. Therefore, I definitely would not be a buyer now (except perhaps to day trade). I want to see what it does over the next few months before becoming really serious about it again.
One more point, sometimes there is NOTHING really worth buying for certain periods of time, and the only reasonaable action is to be short, perhaps EVERYTHING. This may sound extreme, but if you look at all the markets, all of them have been driven up together by Greenspan's liquidity binge. Therefore, why would it be so unreasonable for ALL OF THEM to fall together, at least for awhile?
Dear FOX, very smart you are very smart. I agree that risk of the downside exists and is real. That is why I short XOI to get more band of my buck, in case gold does not respond. I take no loss trades, hopefully, until one of those will become a long term winner. No argument about risks in everything. Do you see $ all of a sudden flexing muscule and everything looks scared?. Risks are everywhere. The real problem is how to ascertain the bigger risks. Now then GOLD/OIL ratio will be/is winner from August 05. That is why I would rather short XOI than GOLD stocks. Correct my friend, you are. Good trading
thanks FOX, U have managed to answer many questions I was wondering whether to even ask here..
I am in gold futures living day to day.. it's very rough, and although we have a strong long-term view, in the intermediate and short-term, like you said the metal has a nasty habit of emptying the maximum number of pockets before making its real move..
Dead DXB. Most markets are like that. Everyone has horror stories. Perhaps for some people some markets look especially deceptive. I find that Gold can be your frind if you follow it. That is not take the big risks. Just take short term positions, see it work out and turn it into the longer term position. That is a simple strategy that can only be accomplished by an "accomplished" short term trader, cause he/she never cares about long term, long term is composed of many short term decisions. Good Trading My Friends.
Thanks DXB. The only other thing I can say about Gold is that it is not only a monetary asset, but it is also a "world event"/"crisis" asset (i.e.,"safehaven"). Therefore, even though it looks weak to me for the short/intermediate term, this is probably driven mainly by current monetary factors and perhaps other supply/demand considerations. However, if a crisis situation(economic or political) should develop, gold could turn on a dime and go straight up. There is absolutely no way to predict when this may happen, and it certainly would not be reflected in the current weakness. Therefore, in my opinion, the only way you can play this situation (other than day trading) is to invest for the long-term and not worry about the interim fluctuations. Or, stay out until something big happens, or the situation clarifies somewhat. As I said, I own some of the metal for "insurance," which I have owned for 3-4 years. But I am not trying to trade the metal (futures) or the stocks here except on the short side, and, even then, I keep my stops pretty close only go for relatively small gains.
Dear Fox. It looks like we differ after all(: :). You see. I go for small loss. Until I am positioned for a very big gain and then I wait to make that gain and collect. That was the case when I publically recommened bying the GOLD/XAU/STOCKS when GOLD was at 570-580 area and collected last portion of that at 639 couple days ago. Now I try to position myself again for the Long and would love to see gold go below 600. But will not hesitate to go long at any chance. You are right about geopolitical staff. But do not forget simple asset allocation principles either. DOW/GOLD needs to get under 5, GOLD/OIL needs to get over 15. Gold is cheap. Doy agree. Good Trading.
I think the main difference is that our trading time frames are different. Apparently you take a position for the very short term, and either get out if it goes against you, or ride it if it goes your way, which sometimes can turn into a longer-term gain. I do that sometimes too.
But my main time frame is the intermediate term. I usually won't take a position unless I feel fairly confident about the intermediate-term prospects. Of course, I will be gald to have your short-term methods to help me enter a trade. But I still have to have a pretty good feeling about the intermediate term before I look seriously at the trade.
So, we do have a somewhat different persspective on trading, even though we both use some of the same tools. And I am sure that either method can work, if managed properly.
By the way Boris, another thought on our different approaches. I bought my "insurance" gold at $330 in late 2002, and I thought I may be paying too much for it then, because it had been in a steady uptrend for more than 2 years, and had just broken out(upside)of an intermediate-term pattern. I had absolutely no idea it was going to go to a high of around $732, but I did feel like it was a good "long-term" buy. And I still feel that way today, but I also feel it p;robably is going to go down some more (barring some economic or world crisis) before it starts up again in earnest. Of course, everything you do in this game is a gamble--sometimes you win and sometimes you loose.
17 comments:
Move stop to 62.18, minimum risk
Stop GOes up 62.24, breakeven.
Free trade
Enjoy
62.24 survived and now we are at 62.32. Stop up 62.26.
If gold takes out yesterday's low around 61.85 (?), I would be a seller with short-term target of around 60.35. What about you?
In fact, I might hold the short to around 59.50 if was still showing signs of weakness.
Dear FOX, I just got stopped out this SH.... with no loss, but... do not like being stopped. It could go the way XOI. did you see that sucker( we shorted it). Yes man it could go down, but all the trouble is coming our way, something, somebody must go up and the only thing I know that can do that is GOLD. You are correct I would like the yesterdays lows taken out. I shoted the XOI, cause I think it will be a weaker syster.
Do you agree that XOI could be more down than gold?
How about the question for your question(: :)
Good Trading to you.
Yes, for the short-term, I would be a seller of XOI here, with target around 1183. But longer-term, it really has not topped yet; therefore, I would be very nimble.
As far as Gold is concerned, I agree completely with all the fundamental reasons to buy it, and in fact, I have owned the metal for the last 3-4 years, and I traded the stocks very actively a few years ago. But in the intermediate to short term it does have a way of emptying the maximum number of pockets before it starts, or continues, its real move. Accordingly, it looks weak to me now, as do the XAU/HUI. Therefore, I definitely would not be a buyer now (except perhaps to day trade). I want to see what it does over the next few months before becoming really serious about it again.
One more point, sometimes there is NOTHING really worth buying for certain periods of time, and the only reasonaable action is to be short, perhaps EVERYTHING. This may sound extreme, but if you look at all the markets, all of them have been driven up together by Greenspan's liquidity binge. Therefore, why would it be so unreasonable for ALL OF THEM to fall together, at least for awhile?
Dear FOX, very smart you are very smart. I agree that risk of the downside exists and is real. That is why I short XOI to get more band of my buck, in case gold does not respond. I take no loss trades, hopefully, until one of those will become a long term winner. No argument about risks in everything. Do you see $ all of a sudden flexing muscule and everything looks scared?. Risks are everywhere. The real problem is how to ascertain the bigger risks. Now then GOLD/OIL ratio will be/is winner from August 05. That is why I would rather short XOI than GOLD stocks.
Correct my friend, you are.
Good trading
Dear FOX, this is scary, we were writing the same things about all being down at the same time.
This is scary, we have morphed into one?
Good Trading
thanks FOX, U have managed to answer many questions I was wondering whether to even ask here..
I am in gold futures living day to day.. it's very rough, and although we have a strong long-term view, in the intermediate and short-term, like you said the metal has a nasty habit of emptying the maximum number of pockets before making its real move..
Dead DXB. Most markets are like that. Everyone has horror stories. Perhaps for some people some markets look especially deceptive. I find that Gold can be your frind if you follow it. That is not take the big risks. Just take short term positions, see it work out and turn it into the longer term position. That is a simple strategy that can only be accomplished by an "accomplished" short term trader, cause he/she never cares about long term, long term is composed of many short term decisions.
Good Trading My Friends.
Thanks DXB. The only other thing I can say about Gold is that it is not only a monetary asset, but it is also a "world event"/"crisis" asset (i.e.,"safehaven"). Therefore, even though it looks weak to me for the short/intermediate term, this is probably driven mainly by current monetary factors and perhaps other supply/demand considerations. However, if a crisis situation(economic or political) should develop, gold could turn on a dime and go straight up. There is absolutely no way to predict when this may happen, and it certainly would not be reflected in the current weakness. Therefore, in my opinion, the only way you can play this situation (other than day trading) is to invest for the long-term and not worry about the interim fluctuations. Or, stay out until something big happens, or the situation clarifies somewhat. As I said, I own some of the metal for "insurance," which I have owned for 3-4 years. But I am not trying to trade the metal (futures) or the stocks here except on the short side, and, even then, I keep my stops pretty close only go for relatively small gains.
Dear Fox. It looks like we differ after all(: :). You see. I go for small loss. Until I am positioned for a very big gain and then I wait to make that gain and collect. That was the case when I publically recommened bying the GOLD/XAU/STOCKS when GOLD was at 570-580 area and collected last portion of that at 639 couple days ago. Now I try to position myself again for the Long and would love to see gold go below 600. But will not hesitate to go long at any chance. You are right about geopolitical staff. But do not forget simple asset allocation principles either. DOW/GOLD needs to get under 5, GOLD/OIL needs to get over 15. Gold is cheap. Doy agree.
Good Trading.
I think the main difference is that our trading time frames are different. Apparently you take a position for the very short term, and either get out if it goes against you, or ride it if it goes your way, which sometimes can turn into a longer-term gain. I do that sometimes too.
But my main time frame is the intermediate term. I usually won't take a position unless I feel fairly confident about the intermediate-term prospects. Of course, I will be gald to have your short-term methods to help me enter a trade. But I still have to have a pretty good feeling about the intermediate term before I look seriously at the trade.
So, we do have a somewhat different persspective on trading, even though we both use some of the same tools. And I am sure that either method can work, if managed properly.
By the way Boris, another thought on our different approaches. I bought my "insurance" gold at $330 in late 2002, and I thought I may be paying too much for it then, because it had been in a steady uptrend for more than 2 years, and had just broken out(upside)of an intermediate-term pattern. I had absolutely no idea it was going to go to a high of around $732, but I did feel like it was a good "long-term" buy. And I still feel that way today, but I also feel it p;robably is going to go down some more (barring some economic or world crisis) before it starts up again in earnest. Of course, everything you do in this game is a gamble--sometimes you win and sometimes you loose.
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